The Sun settling down?


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Two weeks ago NOAA posted its monthly update of the solar cycle, showing the sunspot activity for the Sun in April. I have been remiss about doing my monthly post about this, so here it is now, posted below with annotations.

April Solar Cycle graph

The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The red curve is their revised May 2009 prediction.

The Sun continued the drop in sunspots seen the previous month, though the total number remains above the 2009 prediction for this moment in the solar cycle. As already noted, that the second peak of this double peaked solar maximum has been much stronger than the first remains unprecedented.

Overall, the maximum continues to be the weakest seen in a hundred years. Whether this is an indicator of future events or an anomaly can only be discovered after the Sun completes this solar solar cycle and begins the ramp up to its next solar maximum, at least five years away.

The next update is only a few weeks away. Stay tuned.

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5 comments

  • Steve Mackelprang

    There have been quite a number of sun spots for the last month, however, very few have been active in any measurable way. Very few flares, and even less CME’s, there is a web site where the gentleman tracks this stuff daily and posts the various parameters of solar activity. I find it quite interesting and perhaps some here may as well.

    http://www.suspicious0bserverscollective.org/daily-news.html

  • Cotour

    Q: Is there an established long term correlation between solar activity and “global warming” or the natural cycle of the earths climate changes?

  • Do a search on BtB for the words sunspots or solar cycle. I have discussed this endlessly and repeatedly for the past four years. When sunspots go down, the climate cools, though the link remains unclear.

  • Cotour

    Q 2: In your opinion, do sun spots contribute to the disruption of the amount of cosmic rays that earth receives and as a result there is less cloud cover which in turn causes the earth to cool or warm?

    (I assume from what I have discovered that the sun spots affect the magnitude of the magnetic field surrounding the sun and in turn how it envelopes and protects the earth more or less depending on the cycle and that seems to be the major factor in the earths temperature cycle.)

    Q 3: To what reasonable degree do you or others who study such things estimate the amount of human activity in the form of pollution in general and or the production / amount of CO2 specifically in our atmosphere affects the earths average temperature?

    I know you have commented before on the subject but I think it has to be constantly re discussed specifically in these terms, pollution, CO2 and other outside driving factors.

  • Kelly Starks

    Generally theres never been shown any case where rising or falling CO2 is followed by similar climate trends. Sun spot cycles though seem correlate with simultaneous shifts in all the planets we can see anything to call climate.

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