Take-aways from Cruz’s win in Wisconsin

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Link here. Key quote, which I think accurately predicts what will happen in the next few months:

Trump will not win 1237 delegates before the convention. The question is whether Cruz can catch him in a plurality or get close to it and win a mandate. It’s quite obvious that Trump’s victories during the first half of the race were a result of unprecedented name ID and a divided field. He would have lost most states had this been a one-on-one contest, which tells you that the majority of voters don’t want him. Thus, even if Cruz comes up short of a plurality, as long as he wins the aforementioned states, the Texas Senator will have a moral mandate when he likely wins a delegate race on the second ballot. Trump will argue that it doesn’t reflect the will of the voters, but it’s clear that 60% of voters in most states don’t want him. He only won in previous states because of Rubio, and the remaining wins come as a result of Kasich staying in the race or non-Republican voters.

The article has lots of good information and analysis. It correctly notes that if John Kasich would do the sensible and honorable thing and end his campaign now, Cruz’s path to the nomination would be significantly cleared.


  • Wayne

    Excellent commentary & analysis by Daniel Horowitz!

  • Cotour

    I have to admit here that Trump has NOT lifted himself up, and I do not think that it is possible at this point to do so to the extent needed. I think for me the Chris Mathews abortion debacle followed by his answer in response to a question regarding his disrespecting Cruz’s wife, “He started it” was the bridge too far for me.

    That being said I am still quite doubtful that Cruz can improve his likability quotient in an effort to garner the dissatisfied Dems and the forever misplaced independents vote and I doubt that even the stone cold conservatives masses can make the difference.

    Speaking of which I took the time to write the standard Republican abortion statement, feel free to comment:

    Republican Abortion Position:

    No Republican shall ever freely discuss the subject of abortion in an open ended manner. If the subject presents itself in conversation or in the context of an interview this statement shall be the stated position of that person, and if pressed further or given hypothetical situations to be considered and commented on the interviewee shall either ask for the conversation to be moved on or ended. The interviewee has permission to not be made to feel obligated to enter into or participate in any conversation on this subject beyond this statement.

    Abortion position:

    I personally am (very uncomfortable with or very opposed to, choose one) the act of the termination of a viable pregnancy. However, the duly settled law of the land is such that it has been determined that a WOMAN has the right to terminate HER pregnancy before the point of viability, which at this moment in time may be at or around the 23rd or 24th week. It is my personal opinion that if this difficult decision is being contemplated that it is more humane, responsible and compassionate to be decided on and accomplished WELL, WELL before the 23rd or 24th week.

    This is a weighty and complex personal decision that carries with it long lasting consequences both physical and psychological that can not be undone once done, both for the woman herself and obviously her fetus.

    Abortion should not be looked upon as though it were a form of birth control.

    End of statement.

  • Garry

    That’s exactly how I (and many, many other people I know) feel about abortion.

  • Steve Earle

    I agree, now if only the RNC would adopt that as their policy and if only the candidates would memorize that as their one and only statement on the matter….

  • Steve Earle

    Kasich is trying to leverage his spoiler role and alleged control of Ohio into a bigger chair somewhere, preferably the VP spot. He will stay in it until someone offers him a deal.

    As far as Ted Cruz, I hope this article is correct and he is starting to build momentum. If NY goes big for Trump, the press will do to Cruz what they should be doing right now to Kasich and hound him to get out.

  • Cotour

    Gary and Steve:

    Thanks for your feedback on my Republican abortion position, that to me is the reasonable position to take on a very controversial and consequential issue having to do someone else’s rights to self determination. Obviously as science marches on and time to viability gets ever shorter this subject will evolve.

    Its funny as you think of the issue, the left seems willing to be pro abortion upon demand up and until a fetus’s last day of its nine month of development, very disturbing to me. Their argument becomes an argument that abortion is in fact a convenient form of birth control and the people who avail themselves of the “convenience” seem to be minorities who are their natural constituents.

  • D K Rögnvald Williams

    Mr. Horowitz’ analysis is a best case scenario for Cruz, not a likely one. He projects 1042 delegates each for Cruz and Trump prior to the GOP convention. Sen. Cruz may win several Midwest and Northwest states, but he will lose badly in New York and New Jersey. Trump will probably beat him in Pennsylvania and California, where large numbers of Roman Catholic voters prefer him to Cruz. Another problem for Cruz is that his negatives with voters are nearly as high as Trump’s. Even in neighboring New Mexico, Cruz is not particularly popular. With this said, Trump is still likely to fall 30 -50 delegates short of a first ballot victory. Some of Trump’s bound delegates are almost certain to defect. It then becomes a matter of whether the Kasich and Rubio delegates go for Trump or Cruz. Might a Trump-Kasich slate do battle with a Cruz-Rubio one? For those who think a white knight such as a Paul Ryan will be chosen to break a deadlock, I must agree with Reince Priebus–ain’t gonna happen.

  • Cotour


    I think that after the ensuing chaos that will be the Republican convention, after 3, 4, 5, 6 votes, a Paul Ryan candidacy may become a reasonable and sales worthy alternative.

    What is almost more interesting to me is the potential for the Democrat party to blow up with contention. As things heat up, it appears that Bernie did not get the email from Hillary’s server that he is to behave himself and not point out to the general public her obvious counter indications for the position that she seeks.

    As these races grind through the states and the individuals running become more and more encouraged they begin to see themselves more as the person that will be the candidate, however delusion that may be. We know in the end the Dem’s Borg mentality will prevail but the disenfranchised who are comprised of unhappy Democrats and unhappy Republicans and independents have the potential to smite both party’s in significant ways. This may result in a very healthy result for the existing third party, the Libertarian party.

    The position that both party’s have put our country in is far beyond bad, they have both put us all on the brink in so many ways and the people must make them pay the price. What exactly that price will be is not knowable at this moment but I think it a logical conclusion that their will be some kind of significant accounting and resulting payment come November.

  • “I think that after the ensuing chaos that will be the Republican convention, after 3, 4, 5, 6 votes, a Paul Ryan candidacy may become a reasonable and sales worthy alternative.”

    Everything I have read about the delegate process, how they are bound, and what the candidates are doing to obtain their votes suggests to me, quite strongly, that if no candidate gets enough votes on the first ballot to win the nomination, Cruz will win the second ballot going away. It will not be close, and there will be no need for any other ballots.

  • Cotour

    That sounds very reasonable, organized and civilized, but are the natives going to be civilized? Are the natives and the leadership going to cooperate with each other? Unknowable at this moment in time.

    Please comment on your read of the soon to be chaos in the Democrat party. I see that as being equal to or more disruptive to the Democrat party. How will the pseudo socialist Bernie worshipers reconcile their inevitable disappointment? Assuming that Hillary skates on the entire email / email server issue. Which she may skate on because she is who she is, interestingly her underlings seem to have the greater potential to bear the brunt of any legal repercussions.

  • Cotour

    Would one associate the words reasonable, organized and civilized with the thought that this coming Republican convention will be “history that will be talked about for ever” as stated by the RNC leader?


    Civility or chaos, which seems more likely?

  • D K Rögnvald Williams

    I was feeling good about Romney’s 2012 chances until he picked Paul Ryan as his running mate. He has zero charisma. Policy wonks don’t win general elections. If he couldn’t dominate Biden in a debate, what makes anyone think he would do so against that woman from Illinois? He didn’t even carry his home state. If a deadlocked convention turns to Ryan, rank-and-file voters will stay home as they did fours years earlier. I tend to agree with Bob’s analysis. If Trump doesn’t get it on Ballot 1, Cruz has the best shot. And then it is crucial to pick someone from Florida or Ohio as the VP candidate.

    With regards to the D-party, that woman from Illinois/Arkansas/New York has literally purchased the support of the vast majority of superdelegates. Sanders will go away into that dark night and a significant number of his young voters will drift away and stay home on election day. Ironically, turnout for both major parties may be lower than even 2012. As far as the Libertarian candidate, good luck. Your party didn’t turn out for Rand Paul, which surprised me greatly. You have a marginally better chance than the Whigs.

  • Cotour

    All good points, please keep in mind that my positions at this point in time are not in support for any one particular person, I am just noodling with what a realistic scenario might turn out to be. This really has the potential to be totally out of control for both party’s. There may be just as much potential for chaos, maybe even more and people not showing up or protest voting after Bernie gets burned then if Trump is not installed.

    And, I am not a Libertarian. To make a distinction, Libertarianism to me is more of a general personal philosophy of life rather than the basis for a full blown political party. Kind of like the difference between being a Christian and being a Catholic, one is more of a philosophy or belief system and the other is more of a religious business model built around a belief system. That being said, it looks to me as if that may be where a much higher than ever potential for votes lies for that party.

  • Kevin R.

    As regards the chaos in the Democratic Party, once Hillary has the nomination she won’t gain many Sanders voters. A lot of the Sanders voters will go over to the Green Party and vote for Jill Stein who’s platform is the exact same thing as Sanders.

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