NASA has put Orbital Sciences on notice that, assuming its demo cargo mission to ISS in two weeks is a success, the company might have to do it again as soon as December.

The competition heats up: NASA has put Orbital Sciences on notice that, assuming its demo cargo mission to ISS in two weeks is a success, the company might have to do it again as soon as December.

SpaceX is supposed to fly its next cargo mission first, but NASA thinks that flight will be delayed because of development issues with the upgraded Falcon 9 rocket.

Orbital Sciences prepares its Cygnus capsule for its first flight to ISS, set for launch on September 17.

The competition heats up: Orbital Sciences prepares its Cygnus capsule for its first flight to ISS, set for launch on September 17.

Orbital officials said the Cygnus spacecraft was scheduled to be attached to the upper stage of the Antares launcher Wednesday. Final cargo loading into the Cygnus spacecraft’s pressurized module is set for Saturday, followed by its enclosure inside the rocket’s 12.8-foot-diameter payload fairing.

Rollout of the Antares rocket from its horizontal integration facility to the launch pad one mile away is expected Sept. 13.

September will be a busy and important month for private space. We also will have SpaceX’s first commercial launch with its Falcon 9 rocket. If both are successful, the trend away from a big government space programs shall accelerate.

Assuming the first demo berthing of Orbital Sciences’ Cygnus capsule to ISS goes well in September, NASA has now scheduled the subsequent cargo missions of Cygnus and Dragon for December and January respectively.

Assuming the first demo berthing of Orbital Sciences’ Cygnus capsule to ISS goes well in September, NASA has now scheduled the subsequent cargo missions of Cygnus and Dragon for December and January respectively.

The second link above also provides some interesting details about the cargo that Dragon will carry in January.

Orbital Sciences has issued an update on its Antares launch schedule, with the launch window now set for September 14-19.

The competition heats up: Orbital Sciences has issued an update on its Antares launch schedule, with the launch window for the Cygnus demonstration mission to ISS now set for September 14-19.

They announced this on July 10, but I am only now catching up. The launch could happen sooner, if there are delays to the launch of NASA’s LADEE moon probe. Right now the two launches are coordinated to have LADEE launch first.

The Antares hot fire test of the rocket’s first stage was successfully completed tonight.

The competition heats up: The Antares hot fire test of the rocket’s first stage was successfully completed tonight.

The 29-second hot fire test took place at 6:00 p.m. (EST) on February 22, 2013 at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport’s (MARS) Pad 0A, which was designed and built over the last several years to accommodate liquid-fuel space launch vehicles. The primary goals of the test were to ensure that the launch complex’s fueling systems and the Antares stage one test article functioned properly in a fully operational environment, that engine ignition and shut down commands operated as designed, and that the dual AJ26 first stage engines and their control systems performed to specifications in the twin-engine configuration. The test included a full propellant loading sequence, launch countdown and engine ignition operation. The pad’s high-volume water deluge system flowed throughout the entire period of the test to protect the pad from damage and for noise suppression.

The first stage will now be prepped for a full scale test launch of Antares, expected in about six weeks. If that is successful, Orbital Sciences will then follow with a flight of the Cygnus capsule to ISS.

Orbital Sciences has published an updated schedule for its Antares rocket and Cygnus cargo capsule.

The competition heats up: Orbital Sciences has published an updated schedule for its Antares rocket and Cygnus cargo capsule.

Key dates:
February: Hotfire test of the Antares first stage.
March: First test flight of Antares.
May/June: First test flight of Cygnus, on Antares, docking with ISS.
Third quarter 2013: First operational flight of Cygnus to ISS.

NASA used Orbital Sciences’ Taurus 2 rocket for the failed launch of its Glory climate satellite in 2011, even though the agency knew the company had not fixed the problem that caused the loss of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory in 2009.

NASA used Orbital Sciences’ Taurus XL rocket for the failed launch of its Glory climate satellite in 2011, even though the agency knew the company had not fixed the problem that caused the loss of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory in 2009.

The investigators believed there was as much as a 50% chance the faulty component — a fairing separation system for ejecting the protective shroud that covered the satellite during launch — would fail again. Sadly, it did, destroying Glory. More significant for the future, however is this:

Other Orbital vehicles, including the air-launched Pegasus and a new Antares rocket, use a version of the same fairing separation system that is most likely responsible for the combined $700 million loss of two key climate-study satellites. Orbital’s original name for Antares was Taurus II.

So far, NASA has not accepted the Antares shroud-separation configuration for operational flights. Dulles, Va.-based Orbital says it has made a number of changes to its frangible joint fairing separation system in the wake of the Glory launch failure, including modifications to the frangible rail used on Antares. The company is developing that rocket under NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program to carry cargo to the International Space Station (ISS).

If NASA isn’t satisfied with Orbital’s design changes to this system, it could significantly delay the launch of Cygnus and Antares to ISS.

Update: I had mistakenly referred to the Taurus 2 in the first sentence when the rocket used to launch Glory and OCO was the Taurus XL. This is now corrected.

Orbital Sciences has delayed the first demo launch of its Cygnus cargo capsule until March 2013 at the earliest.

Orbital Sciences has delayed the first demo launch of its Cygnus cargo capsule until March 2013 at the earliest.

The schedule for Antares itself has not been delayed. Launchpad tests are still scheduled to begin next week, with the first engine test set for early November, and the first launch of Antares set for December.

They don’t explain the reason for the Cygnus delay. I suspect they simply decided to be realistic. It was always unlikely that the first Cygnus launch would follow only a month after the first Antares launch, especially if there are any kinks in that launch.

The Virginia spaceport at Wallops Island is on schedule to hand control of its launchpad sometime this month so that Orbital Sciences can begin ground tests of its Antares rocket.

The Virginia spaceport at Wallops Island is on schedule later this month to hand control of its launchpad over to Orbital Sciences so it can begin ground tests of its Antares rocket.

The irony of this press release story is that Orbital has actually been running things, as it took over prepping the launchpad last year when the spaceport was unable to handle it.

Orbital Sciences has once again delayed its first launch of Antares, the rocket that will lift its Cygnus cargo capsule to ISS.

Orbital Sciences has once again delayed its first launch of Antares, the rocket that will lift its Cygnus cargo capsule to ISS.

A hold-down test of Orbital Sciences Corp.’s Antares rocket, a prerequisite for the launch vehicle’s maiden flight, likely will not be completed before April because of ongoing tests and certification work on the vehicle’s launch pad at Wallops Island, Va., a launch official said.

As much as I am a fan of these private companies (Orbital and SpaceX), I also recognize the great risks. Both companies are building new rockets and capsules, and have many enemies. If they fail, those enemies will jump on their effort like sharks, ready to shut them down and move all government funding to NASA’s big heavy-lift program. Thus, they have to succeed. Better to delay and get things right then hurry and have them blow up in everyone’s face.

Space exploration and the unexpected consequences of government decisions

On Thursday, December 15, 2011, NASA management announced what seemed at first glance to be a very boring managerial decision. Future contracts with any aerospace company to launch astronauts to and from the International Space Station (ISS) will follow the same contractual arrangements used by NASA and SpaceX and Orbital Sciences for supplying cargo to the space station.

As boring that sounds, this is probably the most important decision NASA managers have made since the 1960s. Not only will this contractual approach lower the cost and accelerate the speed of developing a new generation of manned spaceships, it will transfer control of space exploration from NASA — an overweight and bloated government agency — to the free and competitive open market.

To me, however, the decision illustrates a number of unexpected consequences, none of which have been noted by anyone in the discussions that followed NASA’s announcement back in mid-December.
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