Observations of solar flares do not match the standard model used to explain their origin
The uncertainty of science: When scientists carefully compared new and much more precise observations of the Sun’s solar flares with the standard model they have used for decades to explain their origin, they found unexpected differences, suggesting the model is wrong or imcomplete.
In sum, none of the processes simulated in accordance with the model proved capable of explaining the observational data. The conclusion drawn by the researchers was obvious to some extent: the standard model of solar flares needs to be reformulated, as required by the scientific method.
The scientists found that the two sources of each flare brightened at slightly different times. The model said these sources should brighten almost simulatanously, and no version of the model could explain the contradiction.
All this means is that the researchers simply don’t have enough data or understanding of the Sun to formulate a model that can fully explain the process. This study simply demonstrates this, but also provides a guide for soliving the problem.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The uncertainty of science: When scientists carefully compared new and much more precise observations of the Sun’s solar flares with the standard model they have used for decades to explain their origin, they found unexpected differences, suggesting the model is wrong or imcomplete.
In sum, none of the processes simulated in accordance with the model proved capable of explaining the observational data. The conclusion drawn by the researchers was obvious to some extent: the standard model of solar flares needs to be reformulated, as required by the scientific method.
The scientists found that the two sources of each flare brightened at slightly different times. The model said these sources should brighten almost simulatanously, and no version of the model could explain the contradiction.
All this means is that the researchers simply don’t have enough data or understanding of the Sun to formulate a model that can fully explain the process. This study simply demonstrates this, but also provides a guide for soliving the problem.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Dirty secret of all astronomy is it’s all guesses and academic politics decide which guesses get anointed as “science.”
Astronomy is just about the only science that I can think of that is completely observational. Hard to set up an experiment in your lab with a planet or a star cluster.
And in keeping with the norms of scientific progress, the more you look, the more you see.
Need better theories? Send more money.
Yes, money got us some great science at Wuhan. Funny how Einstein, Dirac and Seaborg didn’t get all that rich of some of the best theoretical science of the last two centuries.
Astronomy isn’t – as currently practiced – about observation, it’s about interpretation of the observations.
The means by which observations from Europa Clipper will measure the characteristics of the postulated Europan subsurface ocean should be a tour de force of observational astronomy. I hope it’s worth the wait!
Ps. Falcon Heavy for the win!!
A card sharp, asked if prettier cards would make his job easier just smiled and shuffled….
M. Murcek: Those who are long time readers of my work know that I am a strong advocate in skepticism when it comes to scientific claims. You, however, appear to be taking that skepticism a bit too far, applying it wholesale to everything. By doing so it appears to blind you to real results, when they come in.
M. Murcek wrote: “Dirty secret of all astronomy is it’s all guesses and academic politics decide which guesses get anointed as ‘science.’”
I wouldn’t go quite that far. Although it is true that we have barely probed the sun’s processes, we have made many observations. A guess, or an educated guess based upon observations, is known in science as a hypothesis. This is a valid scientific concept against which additional observations or measurements can be compared. If this further investigation remains consistent with the hypothesis, then it can be upgraded to a theory. We rarely upgrade theories to laws, because laws are immutable, and we have learned from experience that even our theories can eventually be found to be incorrect. There have been multiple Nobel prizes in science for findings that later proved to be incorrect.
The same goes for solar observations and the resulting hypotheses and theories. In this case, science has worked. We discovered that what we had concluded from previous observations fails to explain more recent observations. This happens often in science and is how each field matures. Solar astrophysics is relatively new (and yet relatively old) and has proved difficult to investigate.
What few people understand is how little we really understand about the world around us. We have the law of gravity, but Einstein and others have shown that an even better model of gravity can help explain more recent observations. We also consider the speed of light to be a law, but what if we discover something that violates that law?
Science has learned to be skeptical of everything that we know to be true and right. We may not find a better explanation in our lifetimes, but it is always possible that we are wrong. When do we know that we are right? We never know. That is the real dirty secret of all of science, including astronomy. All we can ever know for sure is that we have yet to find out that our theory is wrong.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYPapE-3FRw (10 minutes: Feynman on Scientific Method)
Its like trying to predict the splash pattern of a pot of cheese. And we are guessing on its specific density at every layer.
I have this fear now that Niven’s INCONSTANT MOON might just come to pass.
Do we know WHAT to observe yet?
One thing for sure – SCIENCE is NOT SETTLED! Now the DEMOcrats may demand that a certain “theory” needs TRILLION$ to counter, the TRUTH is the SUN is going to do what the SUN DOES!! The insane attempts to “block the sun” by Gates and his fellow billionaire idiots will probably result in MORE damage to Our Earth.
As far as telling the SUN that it’s flares SHOULD have two points simultaneously?? What if it doesn’t? Will the flares stop or start if “scientists” can’t agree on one or two points?? No! Now what they SHOULD be working on is HOW the sunspots AFFECT OUR EARTH! MORE sun flares result in HIGHER temps on earth? How long does it take for that flare to impact earth? Those are questions I’ve always been more interested in and the effects on temps/”climate”! I guess the TRUTHFUL answers are a tad too INCONVENIENT for those being FUNDED due to “climate”!