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Readers! A November fund-raising drive!

 

It is unfortunately time for another November fund-raising campaign to support my work here at Behind the Black. I really dislike doing these, but 2025 is so far turning out to be a very poor year for donations and subscriptions, the worst since 2020. I very much need your support for this webpage to survive.

 

And I think I provide real value. Fifteen years ago I said SLS was garbage and should be cancelled. Almost a decade ago I said Orion was a lie and a bad idea. As early as 1998, long before almost anyone else, I predicted in my first book, Genesis: The Story of Apollo 8, that private enterprise and freedom would conquer the solar system, not government. Very early in the COVID panic and continuing throughout I noted that every policy put forth by the government (masks, social distancing, lockdowns, jab mandates) was wrong, misguided, and did more harm than good. In planetary science, while everyone else in the media still thinks Mars has no water, I have been reporting the real results from the orbiters now for more than five years, that Mars is in fact a planet largely covered with ice.

 

I could continue with numerous other examples. If you want to know what others will discover a decade hence, read what I write here at Behind the Black. And if you read my most recent book, Conscious Choice, you will find out what is going to happen in space in the next century.

 

 

This last claim might sound like hubris on my part, but I base it on my overall track record.

 

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Stratolaunch now wants to build a reuseable hypersonic vehicle

Capitalsm in space: Stratolaunch announced today that they are now planning to build a reusable hypersonic test vehicle to launch from their giant Roc airplane.

That vehicle, powered by a liquid-propellant rocket engine, will launch from the company’s aircraft and fly to speeds of Mach 5 to Mach 7 before gliding back to a runway landing. It will also be able to take off on its own from a runway under rocket power.

“The Stratolaunch Talon-A is a flexible, high-speed testbed built for offensive hypersonics, hypersonic defense and hypersonic R&D,” the company said in a fact sheet about the program. That document emphasizes the vehicle’s ability to provide “here-to-fore unobtainable measurement access to the hypersonic flight environment on a recurring basis.”

Forgive me if I remain skeptical. From memory I think this is about the fifth different design or concept for launch from Roc, with the previous proposals differing from this hypersonic test vehicle in that they were all intended to go to orbit. All were the same however in that they were trying to find a design that could be launched from Roc and also make engineering and economic sense. So far none has done so.

This new proposal is clearly aimed at garnering government research dollars. It also probably wants those dollars to pay for Talon-A’s development. In a sane world, the military would tell Stratolaunch to build and prove Talon-A’s capabilities first, before signing on.

When it comes to government spending, however, we however are no longer in a sane world.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

3 comments

  • Dick Eagleson

    We will have to see what, if anything, comes of these Stratolaunch announcements but I don’t take quite so jaundiced a view.

    Talon A’s described flight envelope seems broadly comparable to that of the now-long-retired X-15 – Mach 5 to 7 for a few minutes at a time. We’re not talking sustained flight in a hypersonic regime, just quick dashes followed by gliding descents like X-15. From the standpoint of feasibility, this project is quite doable and fairly straightforwardly so. The X-15 project, developed before the cost-plus and corruption rot really set in with a vengeance in legacy aerospace, did not cost all that much even by the standards of its day and the three exemplars constructed conducted almost 200 missions over a decade or so.

    Given that Stratolaunch’s new ownership is just as much outside “The Club” as was it’s founding ownership, the best it is likely to do anent government funding is a small, DARPA-scale deal of some kind in the single-digit or low-double-digit millions. The big, fat deals are always reserved for members in good standing of “The Club.”

    So, given that both the Talons – A and Z – as well as the notional Black Ice orbital spaceplane are likely going to have to be financed mostly internally by Stratolaunch, the progression implied in this announcement seems sound – start with something that can be ginned up comparatively quickly and which is within both the established state of the art and state of practice. Then put that puppy to work making money while the more ambitious Talon Z is developed. Once Talon Z is at least in testing, move on to Black Ice development.

    Anent overall government expenditure, a certain amount of government support of these initiatives might – over time – prove to be as salutary an “investment” as the government funds that aided SpaceX’s development activities in its early days. Previous government-sponsored hypersonic testbeds built by legacy aerospace have been expensive and expendable. The Talons, being reusable, could well enable much more government hypersonic research to be done much more quickly and cheaply than would be the case if past or current test articles were relied upon exclusively.

    The same might even be true for missions now flown on the X-37B were they to be transferred to Black Ice, whenever it appears. The X-37B is reusable, of course, but even when launched by a SpaceX Falcon 9, its missions are a lot more expensive than a Black Ice mission launched from Roc should be.

  • Col Beausabre

    ” Mach 5 to 7 for a few minutes at a time. We’re not talking sustained flight in a hypersonic regime, just quick dashes followed by gliding descents like X-15″

    Which was done with the X-43 (2001 to 2004) which made it to Mach 9.6 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASA_X-43#Testing and X-51 (2010 to 2013) which flew for 6 minutes including 3.5 minutes at Mach 5+. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_X-51_Waverider

    Not sure what Talon is supposed to do that they didn’t…..

    To me, Roc is a solution looking for a problem

  • Dick Eagleson

    Col. B.,

    The main thing the Talons should be able to do that X-43 and X-51 couldn’t and didn’t is fly frequently and inexpensively at hypersonic velocities. X-43 was expended at the end of every flight test and flew a total of only three times over a period of 3.5 years, an average of one flight every 21 months. X-51, also expendable, did barely better, flying a total of only four times over 3 years. The intervals between its flights were about a year each. Between the first flight of X-43 and the last flight of X-51, 11 years and 11 months elapsed – 7 total flights in not quite 12 years. The reusable X-15, in contrast, flew 199 times over a period of just over 9 years. That’s an average of a flight approximately every 17 days.

    The U.S. defense establishment has lately been making squawking noises about how the Russkies and the Chinese are stealing a march on us anent hypersonic weapons technology. Gee, I wonder whose fault that is?

    It’s hardly a given that Stratolaunch will be successful in developing and operating its Talons. But the U.S. DoD doesn’t seem to have anything on offer but whines and excuses. With a little bit of luck, Stratolaunch may succeed in giving us back a capability we unwisely closed down, with no follow-on, and sent to museums a half century ago.

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