Voyager-2 discovered Neptune to be a planet of quickly changing weather

Neptune's fast changing weather
Click for source.

Cool image time! When Voyager-2 flew past Uranus in 1986, the data showed the gas giant’s weather to be relatively sedate and quiet, with little changing during the fly-by. Scientists expected this: Uranus’s distance from the Sun meant it got little energy to fuel an active climate, with any activity produced by internal heating due to the gravitational pressure of its mass. And Uranus did not produce that much heat internally.

When Voyager-2 passed Neptune three year later, the scientists expected something similar, or even less, due to Neptune’s greater distance from the Sun. Instead, Voyager-2’s data showed Neptune’s weather patterns to be changing constantly and quickly, as illustrated by the three images of the Great Dark Spot to the right, the biggest storm on Neptune at that time and located in the planet’s southern mid-latitudes.

The bright cirrus-like clouds of Neptune change rapidly, often forming and dissipating over periods of several to tens of hours. In this sequence spanning two rotations of Neptune (about 36 hours) Voyager 2 observed cloud evolution in the region around the Great Dark Spot at an effective resolution of about 60 miles per pixel. The surprisingly rapid changes which occur over the 18 hours separating each panel shows that in this region Neptune’s weather is perhaps as dynamic and variable as that of the Earth. However, the scale is immense by our standards — the Earth and the [Great Dark Spot] are of similar size.

In Neptune’s frigid atmosphere, where temperatures are as low as 55 degrees Kelvin (-360 F), the cirrus clouds are composed of frozen methane rather than Earth’s crystals of water ice.

Subsequent observations by the Hubble Space Telescope in 1994 found this Great Dark Spot was gone, replaced by a comparable storm in the northern hemisphere. Further Hubble observations found Neptune’s storms tend to last about two years, fading as they drifted towards the equator. Those observations however also detected storms drifting away from the equator. Other research suggested the storms might be influenced by the Sun’s sunspot cycle.

All of the data post-Voyager-2 remains very coarse and uncertain, as we are looking at Neptune at a great distance. Thus, no theory about what is happening carries much weight, especially because we do not know why Neptune produces so much more internal heat than Uranus, fueling this fast-changing weather. For example, Neptune gets 1/20th of the energy received by Jupiter, yet its atmosphere appears even more active and variable.

Solar scientists: We finally think we know the location of the Sun’s dynamo

The Sun's interior
NASA graphic used in the press release and
annotated to post here.

The uncertainty of science: Using three decades of data gathered during the last three solar cycles, scientists now think they have finally determined the location of the Sun’s dynamo in its interior, at a transition point about 125,000 miles below the surface called the tachocline. From the abstract of their paper [pdf]:

The exact location of the solar dynamo remains uncertain–whether it operates primarily in the near-surface shear layer, throughout the entire convection zone, or near the tachocline – a region of sharp transition in the solar rotation, located at the base of the convection zone, approximately 200,000 km [125,000 miles] beneath the surface. Various studies have supported each of these possibilities.

…Our analysis reveals that the gradient of rotation displays ‘butterfly’–like behavior near the tachocline, which is similar to the magnetic butterfly diagram at the surface. This result supports the idea that the solar dynamo has a deep-seated origin, likely operating either near the tachocline or throughout the convection zone, thereby disfavoring the recent scenario of a shallow, near-surface dynamo. This finding may also have important implications for understanding how stellar dynamos operate in general. [emphasis mine]

Even though scientists have known for more than a century that the Sun’s eleven-year cycle of flipping the polarity of its magnetic field is the fundamental cause of the sunspot cycle, they actually know very little about the dynamo that causes that magnetic field, as this study implies. They not only don’t have any understanding of the fundamental processes that creates that dynamo or causes it to flip polarity every eleven years, they still aren’t entirely sure where it is located within the Sun.

Thus, the highlighted sentence above is one large understatement. Of course knowing the dynamos location will have “important implications for understanding stellar dynamics.” This study is a first good stab at the problem, but it also shows us how little we actually know.

Remember this when anyone tells you “the science is settled” about climate change. The Sun is the number one influence on the Earth’s climate, and its solar cycle appears to be an important factor in that influence. Until we have a better understanding of the Sun, its magnetic field, and the dynamo that creates it, no climate prediction will be worth anything. Such predictions will be all guesswork, and likely put forth for political reasons.

The European Space Agency and China hold the first joint meeting in almost a decade

ESA logo

The European Space Agency (ESA) this week hosted the leaders of the China National Space Administration (CNSA) in Paris, the first such joint meeting since 2017.

The meeting was co-chaired by ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher and CNSA Administrator Shan Zhongde. Both ESA and CNSA had unique achievements to share and discuss since the last time the heads of agencies met in person.

Both highlighted joint successes in space science, notably the Tianguan (Einstein Probe) launch with ESA hardware, and progress on the joint Smile mission, set to launch this year. Similarly, the two sides addressed the successful Chang’e-6 mission carrying ESA’s NILS instrument, ESA’s first experiment on the lunar surface. In the field of telemetry and tracking, both looked back on their long-term cooperation in supporting science and exploration missions. In discussing their respective space safety and Earth observation related programmes, the importance of cooperation to protect our planet and climate was recognised on both sides.

It was discussed, that building past progress, both sides in their respective institutional contexts would explore potential opportunities for further collaboration in areas such as Earth and space science.

Let me translate: We in Europe have found that our cooperative Soviet-style government-run projects with NASA (ISS, Mars Sample Return, and Lunar Gateway) are going away, and we need to find some other authoritarian nation we can partner with.

You see, the bureaucrats in Europe like their Soviet-style government-run space program, and are actually offended that the U.S. is shifting from that approach to the capitalism model, an independent industry run by private enterprise. Moreover, these bureaucrats at ESA are finding their own political support dwindling within the ESA’s member nations, many of whom are adopting the same private industry approach as the U.S.

Thus, rather than embrace freedom, competition, and capitalism — the principles that once made Europe great — they look to China now to help fund their government projects. How so very governmental of them!

It is likely some space projects will come of this, but if the U.S. remains steadfast in support of freedom and private enterprise, it will flow like a tidal wave over anything ESA and China develop.

Computer model: A thin ice cap can preserve liquid water on Mars

The parameters used in the computer model
Figure 1 of the paper, showing the parameters
used in the computer model

Using a computer model, scientists have found that a thin cap of ice can act to allow liquid water to exist in lakes on Mars, for extended periods of time.

You can read their paper here. From the abstract:

Working at a localized scale, we combine climate input from the Mars Weather Research & Forecasting general circulation model with geologic constraints from Curiosity rover observations to identify potential climatic conditions required to maintain a seasonally ice-free lake. Our results show that an initially small lake system (10 m deep) with ∼50 mm monthly water input and seasonal ice cover would retain seasonal liquid water for over 100 years, demonstrating conditions close to long-term lake survivability.

From the press release:

In some simulations, the lakes completely froze during colder seasons, whereas in others, the lakes remained liquid and were covered by a thin layer of ice instead of freezing solid. This thin ice acted as an insulating lid, significantly reducing water loss while still allowing sunlight to warm the lake ice during warmer months. As a result of this seasonal cycling, some simulated lakes barely changed in depth over decades, suggesting that they could be stable for longer durations even with average air temperatures below freezing for much of the time.

Because this research is based on computer modeling, it carries great uncertainties. At the same time, it seems to explain the puzzling nature of Martian geology, which has repeatedly suggested the existence of liquid water in the past on a planet that has always been too cold with too thin an atmosphere for liquid water to exist. Data has also suggested that pockets of liquid water might have existed at the base of glaciers. This research aligns with that data.

ESA funds Danish lunar orbiter

The European Space Agency (ESA) has agreed to fund the first Danish-built interplanetary probe, a smallsat lunar orbiter dubbed Mani that will launch in ’29 and map the Moon’s surface.

The Máni mission is a lunar mission that will use a satellite to map the Moon’s surface with high-resolution images and create detailed 3D maps. The goal is to make it safer for astronauts and lunar rovers to land and move around on the Moon. The satellite will orbit the Moon’s north and south poles, which are key areas for future human missions.

The mission will also map how light reflects from areas on the Moon that are used to study Earth’s ability to reflect sunlight onto the lunar surface – the so-called earthshine. This knowledge could improve our understanding of how Earth’s climate will evolve.

The University of Copenhagen leads the mission and is responsible for the mission’s Science Operations Center, which will plan which areas to map and analyze the vast number of images generated.[emphasis mine]

I love how this European press release about a lunar orbiter somehow makes its most important mission studying climate change on Earth. Utterly idiotic.

Mani will use the changing shadows to create detailed topographic maps. As it is unlikely it will be capable of providing better data than produced over the past sixteen years by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), this mission is mostly an engineering demo by Denmark and the Danish startup, Space Inventor, that is building the satellite for a consortium of universities. If successful the satellite will possibly be able to replace LRO (which is going to fail sooner or later), and provide data on any lunar surface changes that occur in the future.

Abstract art produced by nature within Mars’ north pole ice cap

Abstract art created by nature on Mars
Click for original

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, sharpened, and annotated to post here, was taken on October 27, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). I have also rotate the image so that north is to the top.

The science team labels this “Exposure of North Polar Layered Deposits,” an apt description of the horizontal red and grey and blue layers that dominate the image and make this geology look more like an abstract painting than a natural landscape. What we are actually looking at is a canyon 800-to-1,200 feet deep within the north polar ice cap of Mars.

The picture was taken in the summer with the Sun about 12 degrees above the horizon to the south. Thus, the northern cliff face is illuminated, revealing its many colored layers, while the south face is mostly in shadow, hiding those layers.
» Read more

Meandering channel in Mars’ southern cratered highlands

Meandering channel on Mars
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on August 30, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

Dubbed a “channel” by the MRO science team, it shows us a meandering canyon with a floor that seems filled with corroded linear features seen frequently on Earth glaciers. Here, the linear ridges appear broken, in many places missing, and in other places so broken their linear nature disappears.

If this was on Earth and I was a global warming activitist, I would immediately claim that the glacier has been evaporating away due to a warming climate caused by SUVs and Republican intransigence. This however is on Mars, where there are no SUVs or Republicans. So what is going on?
» Read more

New research confirms the steady decline of Martian ice with each glacial cycle

The obliquity cycles of Mars

Using orbital data from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) of glaciers inside mid-latitude craters, scientists have concluded that there was a steady decline in the growth of those glaciers with each new glacial cycle.

They focused on craters with indicative signs of glaciation, such as ridges, moraines (piles of debris left behind by glaciers), and brain terrain (a pitted, maze-like surface formed by ice-rich landforms). By comparing the shapes and orientations of these features with climate models, they found that ice consistently clustered in the colder, shadowed southwestern walls of craters. This trend was consistent across various glacial periods, ranging from approximately 640 million to 98 million years ago.

The results show that Mars didn’t just freeze once—it went through a series of ice ages driven by shifts in its axial tilt, also known as obliquity. Unlike Earth, Mars’ tilt can swing dramatically over millions of years, redistributing sunlight and triggering cycles of ice build-up and melting. These changes shaped where water ice could survive on the planet’s surface. Over time, however, each cycle stored less ice, pointing to a gradual planetary drying. [emphasis mine]

You can read the paper here [pdf]. This result is not new. Based on the orbital data scientists have theorized now for almost a decade that as Mars’ rotational tilt (its obliquity) swings from 11 to 60 degrees, it produces extreme climate cycles on the planet. Those swings are shown on the graph to the right, taken from this 1993 paper [pdf]. When the obliquity is low, the mid-latitudes are warm and the glaciers there shrink, with the snow falling at the poles. When obliquity is high, the poles are warmer and its ice sublimates away to fall as snow in the mid-latitudes, thus causing those glaciers to grow instead.

The orbital data has consistently shown that with each new cycle, the glaciers grew less, suggesting that less global water was available on the planet. This new study further confirms these conclusions.

One last point: Though the amount of water ice on Mars has declined, we mustn’t think the red planet now has none. The orbital data shows that there is a lot of near surface ice on Mars, covering the planet from 30 degrees latitude poleward. As I’ve noted numerous times, Mars is a desert like Antarctica.

China completes two launches

Since yesterday China successfully completed two launches from two of its interior spaceports.

First, it successfully launched what its state-run press described as a satellite that will “primarily support monitoring and research activities in weather forecasting, atmospheric chemistry and climate change”, its Long March 4C rocket lifting off yesterday from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

Then today China’s Long March 6A lifted off from its Taiyuan spaceport in north China, placing in orbit the eleventh set of satellites in the Guowang internet constellation, eventually aiming to be 13,000 satellites strong. China’s state-run press did not specify the exact number of satellites. Based on previous launches using the Long March 6A, the number was likely five, bringing the number of this constellation’s satellites now in orbit to 87.

No word on where the the lower stages of both rockets crashed inside China. This is even more critical with the Long March 4C, since it uses very toxic hypergolic fuels that can dissolve your skin if it touches you.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

125 SpaceX
57 China
13 Russia
12 Rocket Lab

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 125 to 97.

A Martian landscape of volcanic pimples

A Martian landscape of volcanic pimples
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and downloaded on August 3, 2025. Labeled as a “terrain sample,” such images are usually taken not as part of any specific research request but because the camera team needs to fill a gap in the camera’s schedule so as to maintain its proper temperature. When they do this, they always try to pick interesting targets within the time window, and usually succeed.

In this case, the camera team picked a location in the middle of Isidis Planitia, one of Mars’ four biggest basins thought to have been formed from a major impact several billion years ago, focusing on an area covered with these strange knobs that have craterlike depressions at their peaks.

According research published in 2010 [pdf], it is believed these cones — all of which are only a few feet high — are the result of volcanic activity following the impact that formed Isidis four billion years ago. In a sense, they are leftover pimples from that impact and the subsequent volcanic activity within that melted basin.
» Read more

The beauty of Mars’ many-layered northern icecap

The beauty of Mars' ice cap
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on July 1, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

The science team labels it clumsily as “North Polar layered deposits structural geology in icy layers”. What we see are the many layers that make up the north polar cap, produced by the red planet’s many climate cycles that scientists think Mars has undergone over the eons as the red planet’s rotational tilt, or obliquity, rocked back and forth from 11 degrees inclination to as much as 60 degrees. At the extremes, the ice cap was either growing or shrinking, while today (at 25 degrees inclination) it appears to be in a steady state.

These layers are a mixture of ice and dust. The variations from dark to light likely indicate changes in the amount of dust in the atmosphere. Dark layers suggest the atmosphere was more dusty due to volcanic eruptions. Light layers suggest the planet’s volcanic activity was more subdued.

At least that’s one hypothesis.
» Read more

COVID health slanderer gets fired for wishing death on Texans because Texas voted for Trump

Christina Propst, spreading different lies at a town hall meeting during the COVID panic
Christina Propst, spreading different lies at a town
hall meeting during the COVID panic. Click for video.

Fight! Fight! Fight! A Houston pediatrician, Christina Propst, has now been fired because she expressed glee that some Texans might die in this week’s flash floods there because Texas had the nerve to vote for Trump in the 2024 election.

Her exact words:

May all visitors, children, non-MAGA voters and pets be safe and dry.
Kerr County MAGA voted to gut FEMA.
They deny climate change.
May they get what they voted for.
Bless their hearts.

The implication was that she really didn’t care that some kids died as well. She hates Trump that much.

This is not the attitude a health organization wants from its pediatricians, whose job it is to treat children. Within hours her employer, Blue Fish Pediatrics, suspended her, then quickly followed up by firing her.

This story though has a greater context. » Read more

White House issues new orders to streamline federal broadband regulations

As part of its effort to eliminate the red tape imposed by Biden during his term as president, the White House last week issued new orders to streamline the federal broadband regulations as well as cancel those Biden restrictions.

This Trump executive order cancels a number of Biden executive orders that imposed net neutrality, DEI, climate change, and other requirements that added paperwork and cost money and time. Most important of all for rocket companies, this new order aims to streamline the environmental review process on new projects, a process that was expanded exponentially during Biden but had been growing out-of-control for decades, and appeared during Biden to destroy many rocket startups.

Of course, because this executive order was issued by Trump, it will likely be blocked by a federal judge, because only Democratic Party presidential executive orders are allowed in America now.

Trump’s NASA budget cuts and rejection of Jared Isaacman for NASA administrator signal a very bright future for American space

To most Americans interested in space exploration, my headline above must seem extremely counter-intuitive. For decades Americans have seen NASA as our space program, with any cuts at NASA seen as hindering that effort. Similarly, Isaacman, a businessman and private astronaut who has personally paid for two flights in space, had initially been nominated by Trump to become NASA administrator expressly because of that commercial space background. For Trump to reject such a person now seems at the surface incredibly damaging to NASA’s recent effort to work with the private sector.

All of that seems true, but it really is not. Both of these actions by Trump are simply what may be the last acts in the major change that has been engulfing the American space industry now for the past decade.

Jared Isaacman

Jared Isaacman during his spacewalk
Jared Isaacman during his spacewalk in September 2024

First, let’s consider Isaacman. Before Trump had nominated him for NASA administrator, he had been a free American doing exactly what he wanted to do. As a very wealthy and successful businessman, he had decided to use that wealth to not only fly in space — fulfilling a personal dream — but to also use those flights to raise money for St. Jude’s Children’s hospital, whose work he considered priceless and wanted supported. He ended up flying two space missions, becoming the first private citizen to do a spacewalk, while also raising more than $200 million for St. Jude’s.

Isaacman’s second flight was also the first in what he hoped would be his own long term manned space program, which he dubbed Polaris. The first mission did this spacewalk from a SpaceX capsule. The second would hopefully do a repair mission to Hubble, or if rejected by NASA some other work in orbit. And the third would fly in SpaceX’s Starship around the Moon.

As this program was funded entirely by Isaacman and used no government funds, it was generally free from criticism. If anything, Americans hailed it as ambitious and courageous. He was following his own American dream, and doing it on his own dime.

This history however made him appear on the surface to be a perfect choice for NASA administrator under Trump, especially in a time where America’s space effort is shifting more and more to the private sector.

Everything changed however once Trump nominated him. He had to suspend his private Polaris program. He had to kow-tow to politicians, telling them what they wanted to hear. And he was no longer his own boss.
» Read more

Trump administration releases its proposed NASA budget for 2026

The Trump administration today released [pdf] its proposed federal budget for the 2026 fiscal year, calling for an overall reduction in federal spending by about 7.6%, with NASA getting a budget cut of about 24%.

A summary of the budget can be found in this NASA press release. The main bullet points are these:

  • SLS and Orion will be retired after flying the two more missions. Whether those flights will be manned or not however is left vague.
  • Lunar Gateway will be shut down
  • The Mars Sample Return mission will be cancelled.
  • The overall manned budget for interplanetary development is increased, and now includes a line item of $1 billion for “Mars-focused programs”.
  • Flights to ISS are reduced (cutting a half billion from this budget) to facilitate the “transition to a more cost-effective commercial approach to human activities in space as the space station approaches the end of its life cycle.”
  • Eliminates “low-priority climate monitoring satellites”, shifting the focus to getting such data from commercial sources.
  • Major budget cuts are proposed for many other departments, and also include a major restructuring of NASA’s entire operation to “streamline the workforce, IT services, NASA Center operations, facility maintenance, and construction and environmental compliance activities.”

Below is a screen capture from the budget proposal detailing these cuts.
» Read more

Trump cuts apparently shutting down NASA’s climate office in New York

Schmidt's data tampering, as documented in 2017
Schmidt’s data tampering, as documented in 2016.

As part of the Trump administration’s aggressive effort to trim the federal budget as well as shift the research focus at the federal government’s many science agencies, on April 24, 2025 it revealed that it has canceled the building lease for the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York that has existed since 1961 and in 2016 and 2017 was found to be tampering with past climate data with no explanation, lowering past temperature numbers while raising more recent ones in order to make the data fit the as-yet unproven theory that human activity is causing global warming.

Those “adjustments” have never been justified in any way. Nor has Gavin Schmidt, the man who heads GISS, ever done anything to correct them. Moreover, when his office was accused of this tampering in 2016 he not only refused to fix or justify the changes, he responded by claiming “planetary warming does not care about the election.” In the years since it has been his office that annually declares each year “the hottest on record,” using these tampered numbers to do so and demonstrating that he has been acting not as a real researcher but as a political operative of the global warming crowd.

Though the office lease is being canceled, GISS has not been shut down, as of now.

While NASA is terminating the lease on the GISS offices, it is not closing the institute itself. Lystrup said in the email that it will help employees move “to remote work agreements in the short-term as the agency seeks a new, permanent space for the team.”

I suspect this statement is merely designed by Trump officials to dampen the screams of opposition against its actions. It is very likely GISS is going away, and most of its employees will have to find new jobs.

The hope is that new scientists can be hired to review these tampered numbers and get them fixed so that climate research in the future can proceed with reliable data.

Sunspot update: NOAA scientists try to hide how wrong they have gotten things

My monthly sunspot update today will have less to do with the Sun’s sunspot activity itself — which continues to show a very very slow decline from a peak in August 2024 — and more to do with more games-playing by NOAA solar scientists to fool the public into believing they know more than they do.

Below is my annotated version of NOAA’s monthly graph showing the amount of sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun. This graph is significantly different from the graph that NOAA’s scientists have issued for the past few years, with all the changes designed to make it seem as if these scientists’ predictions are on the money, when they have been entirely wrong now for two solar cycles in a row.
» Read more

Twenty years of Hubble data map one long season on Uranus

Uranus over twenty years
Click for original image.

Astronomers using the Hubble Space Telescope multiple times since 2002 have now tracked the changes in its atmosphere during one quarter of its 84 year orbit around the Sun.

The image to the right, reduced and sharpened to post here, shows Hubble’s views across several electromagnetic wavelengths. Uranus’s rotational tilt or inclination is almost 90 degrees, so that it literally rolls on its side as it orbits the Sun. You can see this especially in the bottom two rows. From 2012 to 2022 one pole slowly shifted westward. From the press release:

The Hubble team observed Uranus four times in the 20-year period: in 2002, 2012, 2015, and 2022. They found that, unlike conditions on the gas giants Saturn and Jupiter, methane is not uniformly distributed across Uranus. Instead, it is strongly depleted near the poles. This depletion remained relatively constant over the two decades. However, the aerosol and haze structure changed dramatically, brightening significantly in the northern polar region as the planet approaches its northern summer solstice in 2030.

Since we have not yet observed Uranus over one full year, there are a lot of uncertainties in any conclusions the scientists propose. For one, we don’t know the general atmospheric patterns across all four seasons. For another, any changes seen now might simply be the planet’s weather, random events not directly related to long term climate patterns.

NASA shuts down three unneeded departments, including its DEI office

NASA this week began complying with Trump’s executive orders by finally shutting down its DEI office as well as two other unneeded departments.

NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy and Strategy; the Office of the Chief Scientist; and the Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Accessibility branch in the Office of Diversity and Equal Opportunity will be shuttered, in compliance with Trump’s executive order, “Implementing the President’s Department of Government Efficiency Workforce Optimization Initiative.”

A total of 23 employees were laid off. All three offices were established during the Biden administration, and provided no real value to the agency. The first two merely gave advice to top management, advice unneeded if the right people are put in charge. The third agency, DEI, was worse than unneeded, because it shifted the agency’s focus from good engineering and space exploration to favoring some races over others in hiring and promotions.

In fact, the DEI office had already been neutered prior to this week’s layoffs, based on the nature of NASA press releases in the past two months. Prior to Trump taking office, almost every single NASA press release touting the work of one or more of its employees would be entirely focused on the race or ethnicity of that employee, with almost every profile featuring a woman or minority. White men need not apply.

Since January 20, 2025, the range of employees featured in these profiles has changed radically. While minorities and women have been profiled, their race and gender is no longer mentioned. Instead, the releases tout their experience, skills, and talent. More important, the releases have now stopped blacklisting white men (who actually make up a majority of NASA’s workforce), highlighting many new and long term such individuals in just the past three weeks. The change has been quite refreshing.

Meanwhile, most of the propaganda press has been lying about these layoffs, attempting to paint them as a major disaster that will destroy NASA’s ability to accomplish anything in the future, with the worse example this headline from the science journal Nature: “NASA begins mass firings of scientists ahead of Trump team’s deadline”. That headline is a total lie. This was certainly not a “mass firing” and no space scientist was fired. Of those let go from the first two offices, all were managers, one of whom was also a “climate scientist”, not a space researcher.

More layoffs are expected of course under Trump’s campaign to shrink the federal government. If later layoffs follow the pattern of this first one, they will likely improve NASA’s workforce, eliminating the fat so that what remains can be more focused on what needs to be done.

The mysteries buried in the Martian south pole ice cap

The mysterious layers in Mars' south pole ice cap
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped and color-enhanced to post here, was taken on November 3, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

The picture is labeled as a “terrain sample,” which means it was likely taken not as part of any specific research project, but to fill a gap in the camera schedule in order to maintain the camera’s proper temperature. In this case the camera team tries to choose interesting features, though sometimes they can’t due to timing.

In this case they were able to target a nice piece of geology, a layered 2,000 foot cliff on the outer edge of the south pole ice cap. The color strip illustrates the possibilities within those layers. I have significantly enhanced the colors to bring out the differences. The orange suggests dust, the aqua-blue water ice, though these colors could also indicate interesting mineralogies.
» Read more

Sunspot update: Is this sunspot maximum over, or will it become another doubled peaked maximum?

Well, after almost fifteen years it had to happen at last. In preparing to do my monthly sunspot update today, which I had done every month since I started Behind the Black in 2010, I discovered that I had completely forgotten to do the update in December. Sorry about that.

No matter, the changes from month-to-month are not often significant, and fortunately that turned out to be the case in November and December of 2024. Since my last update at the beginning of November 2024, sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun has been relatively stable, based on NOAA’s monthly graph tracking that activity. In November the activity dropped slightly, only to recover a small amount in December.
» Read more

New climate research debunks CO2’s ability to warm the atmosphere, even as other research shows CO2 greens the Earth

Climate models versus data
Click for full resolution graph.

Research that the political activists in the climate field (posing as scientists) refuse to cite is increasingly documenting two important and very encouraging facts about atmospheric carbon dioxide.

First, CO2’s ability to warm the climate is much more limited than claimed, suggesting just one more error (out of many) in the many global-warming climate models that have consistently failed to correctly predict the actual climate for at least two decades, as indicated by the graph to the right, published in January 2024. This new error involves the point where an increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere can no longer cause any increase in warming.

The Taiwanese scientists found that ground temperature warming of 0.3°C was associated with the increase from 100 ppm to 350 ppm and there was no additional warming at all as CO2 rose further from 350 ppm to 400 ppm. The current level of CO2 in the atmosphere is 420 ppm.

Seven Austrian scientists have also recently concentrated on CO2 and the infrared spectrum, noting that a future doubling of the gas up to 800 ppm “shows no increase in the IR absorption for the 15 u-central peak”. It is concluded that this can lead to 0.5°C warming at most. The scientists argue that climate models and their CO2 influences should be revised. Much more experimental evidence about IR radiation should be collected “before appointing current warming trends and climate change mechanisms monocausal to greenhouse gas theories”.

The second paper can be read here [pdf]. In their conclusion the scientists bluntly state that “Climate models and their CO 2 forcings should be revised.”

Nor are these two papers the only ones who have come to this conclusion. Research by others in the last two years repeatedly show that CO2 has a limited ability to warm the climate. Furthermore, all the global-warming climate models in the graph above have always recognized this fact, in that they don’t really depend on CO2 to do the warming. Instead, they depend on a convoluted theory whereby the small increase in CO2 will interact with the large amount of water vapor in the atmosphere (the real global warming component) to cause it to significantly warm the climate. This hypothesis is clever, but it continues to fail in all of its predictions.

The second positive consequence in the increase in atmospheric CO2 is its impact on plant life. It is causing a greening of the planet, which can only mean bigger crops, more food, and less starvation for every human being on Earth.
» Read more

Land of dust devils

Land of dust devils
Click for original image.

Today’s cool image to the right demonstrates that the atmosphere and climate of Mars is truly different in different places. The picture, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on July 22, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Labeled simply as a “terrain sample”, it was likely taken not as part of any specific research project but to fill a gap in the camera’s schedule in order to maintain its proper temperature.

I post it today almost to illustrate the difference between this location and the spot where the lander Insight landed on Mars. Earlier this week the MRO camera team released a short movie created by images of the lander taken over six years, showing how the dust around it had changed over time. I noted further how those images showed a very small number of dust devil tracks, which explained why no dust devil every crossed over the lander’s solar panels to clean them of dust.

For the picture on the right, however, there are a lot of dust devil tracks, so many near the bottom that they almost completely darken the ground.
» Read more

December 12, 2024 Quick space links

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

A review of the last half century of major ice calving events in Antarctica detects no trend

47-year trend of large iceberg calving events in Antarctica
Click for original image.

The uncertainty of science: A review by scientists of major ice calving events in Antarctica that have occurred in the last 47 years has detected absolutely no trend either up or down, despite decades of predictions that human caused global warming would cause huge sections of the icecap to break off and catastrophically change the Earth’s climate.

The graph to the right comes from figure 4 of the paper, and illustrates the lack of trend. Note how the actual observations, the blue dots, show no increase in large calving events. From the abstract:

We use 47 years of iceberg size from satellite observations. Our analysis reveals no upward trend in the surface area of the largest annual iceberg over this time frame. This finding suggests that extreme calving events such as the recent 2017 Larsen C iceberg, A68, are statistically unexceptional and that extreme calving events are not necessarily a consequence of climate change.

The researchers of course genuflect to human-caused global warming in their conclusion by stating that the shrinkage predicted in the Antarctic ice cap (but not yet seen in any significant amount) could instead be occurring due to an increase in small calving events.

The lack of an upward trend in annual maximum iceberg area could be attributed to an overall increase in the number of smaller calving events, which may inhibit the development of extremely large calving events. As such, small calving events pose the greatest threat to the current stability of Antarctic ice shelves.

Since there is no detailed or reliable data of the number of smaller calving events, this hypothesis is entirely made up, and carries no weight. It is simply a fantasy created to maintain the fiction of global warming. A more open-minded look at these results would say that the larger events provide an excellent guide to the overall trend, and that the icecap simply isn’t shrinking as predicted.

The strange beginning of a 300-mile-long meandering canyon on Mars

Overview map

Today’s cool image will be unlike most cool images, in that we will begin not with the image but with the overview map to the right. The long meandering canyon at the center of this map is Nirgal Vallis, a 300-mile long canyon on Mars that eventually drains to the east into a much larger drainage system that runs south-to-north several thousand miles into the Martian northern lowland plains.

At first glance Nirgal Vallis invokes a river system. It starts in the west as several branches that combine to form a single major canyon meandering eastward until it enters that south-to-north system. To our Earth eyes, this canyon suggests it was carved by water flowing eastward, the many drainage routes combining as they flowed downhill.

Today’s the cool image, its location indicated by the white dot, tells us however that liquid water might not have been what created this canyon.
» Read more

Weird ring-mounds in one of Mars’ largest craters

Weird ring mounds on Mars
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on August 16, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The science team labels these strange features “ring-mound landforms,” a term that has been used to describe [pdf] only vaguely similar features previously found in the Athabasca flood lava plain almost on the other side of Mars. That paper suggested that those ring mounds formed on the “thin, brittle crust of an active fluid flow” created by an explosive event. Since Athabasca is considered Mars’s most recent major flood lava event, the fluid was likely lava, which on Mars flows more quickly and thinly in the lower gravity.

Thus, in Athabasca the ring-mounds formed when a pimple of molten lava from below popped the surface.

But what about the ring mounds in the picture to the right?
» Read more

A former Democratic Party majority leader in California sees the light

The Democratic Party today
The Democratic Party today

If she of all people can do this, why can’t so many other ordinary Democrats? Gloria Romero, former Democratic Party majority leader in the California state senate from 2005 to 2008, announced publicly yesterday that she has dumped her lifelong allegiance to that party, switched her registration to the Republican Party, and furthermore enthusiastically endorsed Donald Trump for president. From her statement:

“Today I say ‘goodbye, adios,’ I’ve had enough. I am now another near-lifelong Democrat who is joining the growing number of people, including key groups like Latinos, who are leaving the Democratic Party. This is not the Democratic Party that I once championed. I do not recognize it anymore, and I cannot continue. I changed my voting registration today as the sun was rising to Republican, which has, under Donald Trump, become the champion of working people, the big tent. And indeed, I will vote for Donald Trump this fall.”

She proceeded to list the many tyrannical actions taken by the Democratic Party recently that led her to this decision, including its backroom deals that blocked any others from running against Joe Biden during the presidential primaries and then dumped him for Kamala Harris. She also cited that party’s support for the queer agenda, for “locking people up for free speech,” for supporting “endless war” everywhere, and for allowing an invasion of illegal immigrants, including violent felons.

Above all she cited the Democratic Party’s failed school policies, from favoring the school unions that do not educate kids but funnel money into the party’s campaign coffers to encouraging anti-Semitism at universities. “The Democratic party thrives off of this failure shamefully … even as our children fall farther and farther behind in reading, writing and the ability to compete internationally.”

None of her criticisms of the Democratic Party are wrong. » Read more

Sunspot update: The Sun continues to boom!

It is time for my monthly sunspot update, taking NOAA’s most recent update of its monthly graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere and adding my own analysis as well as some additional details to provide the larger context.

During August the Sun continued to confound the experts, with the number of sunspots not only greater than July’s high count. the August count exceeded the numbers from December 2001 (215.5 vs 213.4), the last time the Sun was this active.

None of the predictions by anyone in the solar science community had predicted this level of activity.
» Read more

The fall of DEI accelerates

Are Americans finally waking up and emulating their country's founders?

Fight! Fight! Fight! In the past two months it has become very clear that if Americans are willing to stand up to the left and its Marxist bigoted agenda, Americans will win.

Since late June, five different university systems have shut down their Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion offices. Each is listed below, in chronological order:

And this list does not include the University of Florida, which in March shut down its own DEI office because the state legislature not only banned such offices, it cut the budgets of them.

Though it is true these states are all solidly conservative with legislatures largely controlled by Republicans, this fact on its face proves that voting can make a difference, with Florida the biggest proof. Unlike the other states, Florida had for decades been a swing state between the Democrats and Republicans. Voters however changed that in the past decade, so that today the state legisilature is solidly Republican. The result has been a definitive policy shift acting to eliminate these racist Marxist programs from state-financed universities.

There is no reason similar changes cannot be forced in other battleground states. Nor should we consider it impossible in the coastal states (California, Oregon, Washington, New York, Massachusetts, etc) where Democrats maintain full control. DEI concepts are inherently racist and divisive, and serve only to encourage anger, resentment, and hate across all ethnic groups. Ordinary voters recognize this routinely, when they make the effort to look.

Nor are things changing solely in the unversities because of the willingness of voters to force change. The boycott of Bud Light because of its endorsement of the queer agenda last year is having profound impact on corporate culture. In just the last few months a number of major companies have announced the elimination of their own DEI departments and programs, also listed below in chronological order:

The first three stories are from NPR and CNN, which explains the effort of the headlines to blame the evil “pouncing” of conservatives for this action (thus also implying that conservatives are bigots) . In truth, what these leftist news outlets refuse to recognize is that DEI programs are bigoted by their very nature, designed to favor some races over others merely because of skin color. These programs thus violate numerous civil rights laws, not to mention basic human morality and fair treatment. In addition, it appears the customers of all these companies, not simply conservatives, made it clear they would stop buying these products if company management did not take action to shut down these DEI policies.

Faced with a public backlash and the real threat of lawsuits and legal action against them, these companies are now recognizing that it makes no sense legally, financially, and morally to promote such things.

Trump defiant after being shot
Trump defiant

Increasingly, Americans are no longer willing to make believe that DEI and Marxism has a rightful place on the intellectual landscape. These ideas are garbage and downright evil, and it is a great tragedy that American academia allowed them to flourish on campuses for the past half century. The public is now beginning to make it clear that such ideas need to be sent to the ash heap of history, and legislators, academic administrations, and corporate managements are being forced to listen.

The trend is very obvious. If people actually pay attention and make it clear they will no longer tolerate the imposition of these bigoted leftist policies, those policies can be canceled and eliminated. One simply has to have the courage to fight, as Donald Trump said with such defiance immediately after getting shot.

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