OrtoPilot – Bittersweet Symphony
An evening pause: I wish he had used two cameras, just to give the visuals some variety, but the music overcomes the weak camerawork.
Hat tip Sayomara.
Author: Robert Zimmerman
On the Space Show tonight
I should have posted this earlier today but forgot. I will be appearing on the Space Show tonight with David Livingston, beginning aty 7 pm (Pacific).
I guarantee I will be talking about SpaceX, Elon Musk, Starship, Superheavy, and Mike Whitaker of the FAA. Please consider calling in with questions.
October 15, 2024 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay, who also let me know about today’s Chinese launch. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
- China’s long term space science plan also calls for a “Venus atmospheric sample return mission”
The link is in Chinese. Jay provided a translation which mentioned the Venus mission with few details.
- Chinese pseudo-company Landspace hopes to attempt landing and recovery of first stage of its Zhuque-3 rocket in 2025
Landspace has been using a Grasshopper-type engineering test vehicle to do vertical landing tests.
- NASA touts the advantages of the halo lunar orbit of Lunar Gateway
Ah, but will it ever get launched, and at what cost?
- More video of Superheavy’s tower catch, plus a graph illustrating how much SpaceX has lowered the cost to orbit
The video is incredibly fun to watch, but the graph is far more important. While everyone else has done only a little to lower the cost, SpaceX has smashed the floor.
The evidence strongly suggests FAA top management is working to sabotage SpaceX
FAA administrator Mike Whitaker to SpaceX:
“Nice company you have there. Shame if something
happened to it.”
After SpaceX’s incredibly successful fifth test flight of Starship/Superheavy on October 13, 2024, I began to wonder about the complex bureaucratic history leading up to that flight. I was most puzzled by the repeated claims by FAA officials that it would issue no launch license before late November, yet ended up approving a license in mid-October in direct conflict with these claims. In that context I was also puzzled by the FAA’s own written approval of that launch, which in toto seemed to be a complete vindication of all of SpaceX’s actions while indirectly appearing to be a condemnation of the agency’s own upper management.
What caused the change at the FAA? Why was it claiming no approval until late November when it was clear by early October that SpaceX was preparing for a mid-October launch? And why claim late November when the FAA’s own bureaucracy has now made it clear in approving the launch that a mid-October date was always possible, and nothing SpaceX did prevented that.
I admit my biases: My immediate speculation is always to assume bad behavior by government officials. But was that speculation correct? Could it also be that SpaceX had not done its due diligence properly, causing the delays, as claimed by the FAA?
While doing my first review of the FAA’s written reevaluation [pdf] that approved the October 13th launch, I realized that a much closer review of the history and timeline of events might clarify these questions.
So, below is that timeline, as best as I can put together from the public record. The lesser known acronyms stand for the following:
TCEQ: Texas Commission on Environmental Quality
NMFS: National Marine Fisheries Service (part of NOAA)
FWS: Fish & Wildlife Service (part of the Department of Interior)
My inserted comments periodically tell the story and provide some context.
» Read more
China launches “satellite group” using Long March 6A rocket
According to China’s state run press, it today successfully launched what it simply describes as “a new satellite group,” its Long March 6A rocket lifting off from its Taiyuan spaceport in northeast China.
This tweet appears to show video of the launch, though once again there is little information.
First, we have no idea where the rocket’s lower stage and four strap-on stide boosters crashed inside China, doing so at night when no one can see them coming down. Second, we have no idea whether China has made any upgrades to the Long March 6A upper stage, which on four previous launches has broken apart and scattered space junk after deploying its payload in orbit.
The leaders in the 2024 launch race:
100 SpaceX
46 China
11 Russia
11 Rocket Lab
American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 117 to 69, while SpaceX by itself now leads the entire world, including American companies, 100 to 86.
Army successfully completes one-year commercial satellite pilot program
Capitalism in space: The U.S. Army has now successfully completed a one-year pilot program whereby it purchased the use of commercial communications satellites from both Intelsat and SES, rather than attempt to build and launch its own satellites.
Under the pilot, the Army selected satellite operators Intelsat and SES to provide “satcom as a managed service,” a model where the provider handles all satellite communications functions — from setup and maintenance of equipment to network management and technical support — through a subscription-based contract.
The project, officially completed on Sept. 30, is now raising questions about whether the Department of Defense will expand its reliance on commercial satcom providers for long-term military communications needs. David Broadbent, president of Intelsat’s Government Solutions, said that while the pilot program demonstrated the efficiency of managed services, it is still uncertain if the Army will fully embrace this model for future satellite communications (satcom) procurement.
It appears that the Pentagon’s bureaucracy is uncomfortable with the idea, and is resisting expanding the program beyond this one test. For decades the military has designed, built, owned, and operated its own satellites. That approach has created a very large job-base within the military that feels threatened by the idea of out-sourcing this work to the private sector. That approach however has also in the last two decades done a poor job of providing the Pentagon the communications satellites it needs on time and on budget.
Whether the Pentagon will change to this new approach, as NASA mostly has, will likely hinge on who wins the election in November. A Harris administration will likely provide little guidance one way or the other, but will also likely take the side of the bureaucrats in power now. A Trump administration is much more likely to force a change.
China releases its planned space science program through 2050
China’s state run press today announced the release of a planned space science program covering all Chinese space missions through 2050 and put together by several government agencies.
The program, the first of its kind at the national level, was jointly released by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the China National Space Administration and the China Manned Space Agency at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office.
The program outlines the development goals of China’s space science, including 17 priority areas under five key scientific themes, as well as a three-phase roadmap. The five key scientific themes include the extreme universe, space-time ripples, panoramic view of Sun-Earth, habitable planets, and biological and physical sciences in space, Ding Chibiao, vice president of the CAS, said at the press conference.
The article describes the program as having three phases. The first phase goes until 2027 and will focus on both the operation of China’s Tiangong-3 space station as well as the initial establishment of its lunar base. The second phase, from ’28 to ’35, will focus mostly on completing that lunar base, though other space science missions will fly as well. The third phase, from ’35 to ’50, lists 30 space science missions, though this is so far in the future it should treated merely as a rough premlinary proposal for the future.
This proposal continues the overall rational long term approach of China’s space-related government agencies. However, much of it will depend on China’s overall economy in the long term. I am reminded of similar long term plans put forth by Russia early in the last decade, all of which came to nothing because of economic and political factors (largely but not entirely related to Russia shooting itself in the foot with its two invasions of the Ukraine in 2014 and 2022). Similar events could do the same to China, especially as its program is not truly competitive but run from the top, a method that never works that well when one is trying to develop cutting edge technology.
NASA extends the mission of the lunar orbiter Capstone to the end of 2025
The Moon as seen by Capstone during itsMay 2023 close fly-by.
Click for original image.
NASA has now funded the mission of the privately built and operated lunar orbiter Capstone to the end of 2025, allowing it to complete engineering testing by more than two years of the orbit around the Moon that NASA’s Lunar Gateway space station intends to use.
Extending CAPSTONE’s mission also allows further collaboration with the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) team at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland. That partnership comes via a recently extended Space Act Agreement to evaluate, and when appropriate, conduct opportunities for cross-link data collection between the two spacecraft.
The spacecraft is entirely commercial, with NASA merely acting as the customer. It was built by Terran Orbital, launched by Rocket Lab, and is owned and operated by the private company Advanced Space, making it I think the first interplanetary probe operated entirely by the private sector for NASA. Advanced Space’s achievement was further magnified in shortly after launch the spacecraft had some thruster issues causing it to tumble. The company’s engineers were able to regain control and get it to the Moon.
First test images sent back by Hera asteroid probe
Click for original image.
During its initial in-space commissioning to make sure everything is working properly after an October 7, 2024 launch, engineers have successfully taken the first test images by Hera asteroid probe, proving those instruments are operating as intended.
The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken by the spacecraft’s mid-infrared camera, and shows both the Earth (lower left) and the Moon (upper right) as seen from a little less than a million miles away. Once Hera reaches the binary asteroid system of Didymos and Dimorphos, this instrument will be used to measure the changes of temperature on the asteroids’ surface.
Images of Earth taken by two other instruments proved those instruments were functioning properly as well.
Hera is a European Space Agency (ESA) follow-up asteroid mission to see up close what changes were caused to Dimorphos by the impact of NASA’s Dart mission in 2022. It will rendezvous with the asteroid in late 2026 after flying past Mars and its moon Deimos in earlier that year. It will then spend about a half year flying in formation with the asteroids before a planned landing in late July 2027.
SpaceX completes two launches last night from opposite coasts
With the FAA bureaucrats finally getting out of the way and lifting its absurd and clearly politically motiavated grounding of SpaceX, the company has wasted no time in resuming flight. Last night it completed two Starlink launches only two hours apart from opposite coasts.
First, it launched 23 satellites from Cape Canaveral, using a Falcon 9 rocket with a first stage flying on its eleventh flight and successfully landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.
Then, two hours later it launched 20 more Starlink satellites from Vandenberg, with a Falcon 9 first stage flying for the nineteenth time and successfully landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.
With these two launches, the company has completed 100 successful launches in 2024. It had already broken its own record for the most launches by a private company in a single year when it put Starship/Superheavy into orbit on October 13th. Whether it can achieve its goal of 150 launches in this year remains uncertain, but what does it matter? SpaceX has unequivocally proven the benefits of private ownership and capitalism, now achieving as many launches as any other entire country. Russia had completed 100 launches in 1982, which was only topped last year by the United States, but only because SpaceX made it happen.
And literally the sky is the limit, since as long as SpaceX is producing revenue and profits from its effort — which it is — there is nothing to stop it from topping these numbers for decades to come.
The leaders in the 2024 launch race:
100 SpaceX
45 China
11 Russia
11 Rocket Lab
American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 117 to 68, while SpaceX by itself now leads the entire world, including American companies, 100 to 85.
Lucille Ball – Jitterbug Bite
An evening pause: From the 1940 film, Dance, Girl, Dance!
Hat tip Judd Clark.
October 14, 2024 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay, who also sent me the Vast Haven-2 story earlier today. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.
- Rocket Factory Augsburg calls for changes in how Europe’s space bureaucracy operates
It’s only a slightly long tweet, but this is the key quote: “Europe has ambitious private space players, with innovative ideas, courage and a vision. Unfortunately, they are being held by the long arm and are in danger of withering away while old structures, processes and mindsets are maintained.” The company wants that bureaucracy to stop running things and instead simply become “customers” (their word) investing in the private sector.
- Rumors in China suggest its new Long March 12 rocket will attempt to vertically land its first stage on its maiden flight next year
It is entirely likely that China will achieve this goal soon, as they have been investing a lot of research on the subject by their space government agencies as well as their pseudo-companies, which all share their data. And that doesn’t include any information obtained by China through computer hacking.
- French satellite startup gets $10 million in investment capital from a state-bank investment organization
The money will be used to design the first two test satellites for a constellation of 1,500 satellites providing internet access.
- On this day in 1947 Chuck Yaeger became the first person to fly faster than sound
His plane was the Bell X-1.
Even as the left ramps up its effort to cancel Columbus, new DNA data suggests he was born of Jewish parents
How Democrats in Philadelphia celebrated
Christopher Columbus in 2022, placing
a box over his statue so no one could see it.
Now we know why the anti-Semitic left has been striving for years to cancel Columbus: New DNA analysis of the remains of Christopher Columbus now strongly suggests his ancestry was Jewish and that he might even have come originally from Spain, not Italy as has been long claimed.
“We have DNA from Christopher Columbus, very partial, but sufficient. We have DNA from Hernando Colón, his son,” [said forensic expert Miguel Lorente]. “And both in the Y chromosome (male) and in the mitochondrial DNA (transmitted by the mother) of Hernando there are traits compatible with Jewish origin.”
Around 300,000 Jews lived in Spain before the ‘Reyes Catolicos’, Catholic monarchs Isabella and Ferdinand, ordered Jews and Muslims to convert to the Catholic faith or leave the country. Many settled around the world. The word Sephardic comes from Sefarad, or Spain in Hebrew.
After analysing 25 possible places, Lorente said it was only possible to say Columbus was born in Western Europe.
Though these results do involve a lot of uncertainties, they are very intriguing and indeed quite possible. If Columbus was born Jewish he would have had to convert in order to have any chance of obtaining work in Catholic Spain. He would have also done everything he could to keep secret his Jewish ancestry.
As this is Columbus Day, which for almost a century has been an American holiday to celebrate this greatest of explorers who changed human history, it is not surprising that this news was released just last week. It is also not surprising that the campaign to cancel Columbus continues.
» Read more
Vast unveils its proposed full space station concept
Haven-2 station once completed
After revealing the layout planned for its first single module space station dubbed Haven-1 last week, the startup Vast today unveiled its proposed full space station concept, dubbed Haven-2.
The graphic to the right is a screen capture from the video describing the step-by-step assembly of this larger station. Initially it will be comprised of four modules, linked together in a straight line. This confirguration is aimed at winning a space station contract from NASA when it announces the winners in the second phase of its commercial space station program in mid-2026. If picked, Vast then intends in the expand that four-module station to the eight modules illustrated in the graphic.
Between 2030 and 2032, Vast will add a larger 7m diameter core module and four more Haven-2 modules, fully realizing the next-generation commercial space station capable of meeting the needs of international partners, NASA, commercial researchers & manufacturers, and private astronauts.
Key features of the completed station include an unprecedented 3.8m diameter cupola window, external payload hosting capabilities, a robotic arm, visiting vehicle berthing capabilities, external payload airlock, and an extravehicular activity (EVA) airlock to support customers’ needs. Each module will also feature two Haven-1-like 1.1m dome windows, totaling 16 windows by 2032.
Vast’s design is projected to surpass all other proposed on-orbit space stations in terms of volume, functionality, and operational efficiency.
Vast’s overall plan is quite ambitious, but well thought out. If all goes as planned, just as NASA is about to decide on the winners in phase 2 of its space station program, Vast plans to launch in 2026 its Haven-1 station and immediately fly a manned 30-day mission to it, using SpaceX rockets and Dragon capsules. If successful, that private mission will do wonders in convincing NASA to pick Vast.
SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy launches NASA’s Europa Clipper mission
Click for original image.
SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket this morning successfully launched NASA’s Europa Clipper mission on its way to Jupiter, the rocket lifting off from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
In order to get the energy to reach Jupiter, none of the Falcon Heavy’s first stage boosters were recovered today. The two side boosters completed their sixth and final flights with this mission, while the core booster completed its first launch. The only parts of the rocket that will be recovered and reused were the two fairing halves.
To get to Jupiter, the spacecraft will make first a fly-by of Mars in February 2025, and then a fly-by of Earth in December 2026. It will arrive in Jupiter orbit in April 2030, where its orbit will be adjusted to fly close past Europa many times in order to study it closely, as shown by the graphic on the right. It will not going into orbit around the planet because that would place it permanently inside the high radiation environment around Jupiter. This is especially important because the spacecraft has installed transistors that were not properly hardened for that environment.
The leaders in the 2024 launch race:
98 SpaceX
45 China
11 Russia
11 Rocket Lab
American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 115 to 68, while SpaceX by itself now leads the entire world, including American companies, 98 to 85.
ESA awards D-Orbit €119.6 million contract to complete Europe’s first robotic service mission
The European Space Agency (ESA) today awarded the European orbital tug company D-Orbit a €119.6 million contract to fly Europe’s first robotic mission to extend the life of an already orbiting satellite.
Referred to as RISE, the mission will demonstrate the D-Orbit GEA satellite life extension vehicle’s ability to dock with a geostationary satellite, maneuver the satellite, and then release it. After this sequence is verified, ESA’s involvement in its operation will come to an end. The vehicle will then move into an operational phase with D-Orbit offering a life extension service to active geostationary satellite operators.
The mission is targeting a 2028 launch, though no specific target satellite as yet has been identified.
This project is very similar to the Mission Extension Vehicle (MEV) robotic missions of Northrop Grumman, which has been flown twice successfully. I guess ESA needed to see it work before it would consider doing its own mission. Moreover, ESA probably wanted to sign up a European company to do it, and until now no such company existed. D-Orbit has already completed fourteen orbital tug missions with seven more scheduled for 2025. This mission extension project however will be a significant leap forward in its capabilities, funded by ESA.
Uzbekistan signs Outer Space Treaty
More than a half century after the Outer Space Treaty was written and put into force in 1967, Uzbekistan’s legislature in August approved joining the treaty, with the nation’s president signing that legislation this week.
By joining this treaty, Uzbekistan aims to strengthen cooperative relations with developed nations, accelerate the transfer of space-related technologies, and ensure that its space activities are conducted in accordance with international law and its national interests.
By signing the law the country — formerly part of the Soviet Union — is better positioned to sign joint agreements with other nations, either with China’s lunar base partnership or the American Artemis Accords (as presently being structured by the Biden administration).
Congress: NASA violated the law by awarding grants that were used by Chinese scientists
According to a report from the Republican members of a committee in the House, NASA has violated the law that forbids any cooperation or financial funding of China by awarding financial aid to more than a thousand research papers that were jointly published by both American and Chinese institutes.
The committee claimed more than 1,000 research papers had been jointly published by US and Chinese institutes with financial support from Nasa. Dozens of them involved people affiliated with China’s Seven Sons of National Defence, a group of universities with ties to the ministry of industry and information. Hundreds of the papers were linked to the Chinese Academy of Science, the state’s research institute.
The report also noted that “Beijing had used American taxpayer dollars to help fund research that enabled them to advance their weapons programmes. Among the Chinese arms were hypersonic missiles, nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence and microchips.”
The law these scientists have violated was passed after China stole significant technology when American satellite companies were using Chinese rockets in the late 1990s, and it forbids NASA to do any work in cooperation with China or any of its institutes.
None of this is a surprise however. Not only have many Chinese scientists come to the U.S. to obtain our technology, American academics (who in recent years have been more loyal to communism than their native country) have been almost all been willing to help them. in a sense, our academic community has largely become a fifth columnist working to help our enemies.
Estonia signs Artemis Accords
NASA yesterday announced that Estonia had become the 45th nation to sign the Artemis Accords, the bi-lateral treaty created during the Trump administration initially to overcome the Outer Space Treaty’s limits on private property and ownership.
The Biden administration appears to be working to de-emphasize those goals, and in fact to instead strengthen the Outer Space Treaty. From this press release (and similar to statements in all recent press releases):
The accords are grounded in the Outer Space Treaty and other agreements including the Registration Convention, the Rescue and Return Agreement, as well as best practices and norms of responsible behavior that NASA and its partners have supported, including the public release of scientific data.
The full list of nations is as follows: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Colombia, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Peru, Poland, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukraine, the United States and Uruguay.
It is interesting to note that Estonia as well as Lithuania, Armenia, and the Ukraine were once part of the Soviet Union (against their will). Similarly, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia were once part of the Soviet bloc, also against their will. It appears they want to ally themselves with the west, with one reason their fear that Russia might invade them as it has the Ukraine. It also could be that these nations agree with the Trump administration’s original goals, and wish to promote capitalism and private property, having experienced for decades the failures of communist and authoritarian rule.
The future goals of the Artemis Accord alliance will demand entirely on who wins the presidency in the elction in November.
Musk says SpaceX will sue California Coastal Commission
In a tweet on X on October 12, 2024, Elon Musk said that SpaceX will sue the California Coastal Commission for violating his first amendment rights as soon the court opens tomorrow.
“Filing suit against them on Monday for violating the First Amendment,” he wrote, adding: “Tuesday, since court is closed on Monday.”
At least two commissioners had made it very clear in public statements at a hearing last week that they were voting against a Space Force request that would increase the number of launches at Vandenberg because they opposed Elon Musk’s political positions, not because the request would do any harm to the coast. The commission then rejected the request 6-4, with others claiming that SpaceX should have made the request directly rather than have the Space Force do it.
The vote remains non-binding, as the Space Force has the legal power to do whatever it wants at Vandenberg, and only works with the commission as a courtesy.