Author: Robert Zimmerman

Rubin Observatory’s first observations detects more than 2,000 asteroids

11:04 am

The first look patch, in which 2,103 asteroids were detected
The first look patch, in which 2,103 asteroids
were detected. Figure 1 of the paper.

Scientists have now published the first results from the Rubin Observatory in Chile during its on-going commissioning phase, during which they detected more than 2,000 asteroids in just one patch in the sky, most of which had been unknown previously and many rotating at record-breaking speeds.

You can read the paper here [pdf]. From the press release:

The study presents 76 asteroids with reliable rotation periods. This includes 16 super-fast rotators with rotation periods between roughly 13 minutes and 2.2 hours, and three ultra-fast rotators that complete a full spin in less than five minutes.

All 19 newly identified fast-rotators are longer than the length of an American football field (100 yards or about 90 meters). The fastest-spinning main-belt asteroid identified, named 2025 MN45, is 710 meters (0.4 miles) in diameter and it completes a full rotation every 1.88 minutes. This combination makes it the fastest-spinning asteroid with a diameter over 500 meters that astronomers have found.

All but one of these fast-rotators are in the main asteroid belt, with the exception a near-Earth asteroid.

This work essentially completes Rubin’s commissioning. It will begin full observations in 2026. From the paper:

Toward the start of 2026, the observatory will begin conducting the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), a decade-long campaign to repeatedly image the southern sky in multiple bands. The main LSST survey will use six filters spanning near-ultraviolet to near-infrared wavelengths, revisiting the same pointing twice each night, returning to take additional pairs every few nights. … The cadence is designed to result in a dataset capable of answering numerous and varied science cases, from understanding the nature of dark energy to discovering and characterizing millions of asteroids, comets, interstellar objects, and transneptunian objects (TNOs) in the solar system.

In building Rubin the astronomers have always thought their biggest problem was archiving and accessing this large dataset, and much work was spent developing a usable and accessible archive system. Even so, it will take thousands of scientists many decades to mine the discoveries that will be hidden there.

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Study: If Europa has an underground ocean, it is lifeless and dormant

9:43 am

Scientists analyzing the conditions that are believed to exist in Europa’s theorized underground ocean have concluded there is little geological activity within that ocean, reducing significantly the chances there is life there.

A new study led by Paul Byrne, an associate professor of earth, environmental and planetary sciences, at Washington University in St. Louis, throws cold water on the idea that Europa could support life at the seafloor. Using calculations that consider the moon’s size, the makeup of its rocky core and the gravitational forces from Jupiter, Byrne and a team of scientists conclude that Europa likely lacks the tectonic motion, warm hydrothermal vents or any other sort of underwater geologic activity that would presumably be a prerequisite for life.

“If we could explore that ocean with a remote-control submarine, we predict we wouldn’t see any new fractures, active volcanoes or plumes of hot water on the seafloor,” Byrne said. “Geologically, there’s not a lot happening down there. Everything would be quiet.” And on an icy world like Europa, a quiet seafloor might well mean a lifeless ocean, he added.

You can read the paper here [pdf]. It admits in its conclusion that these results have a lot of uncertainty, and the Europa Clipper mission, set to arrive in orbit around Jupiter in 2031, will reduce that uncertainty but not eliminate it, adding that “Ultimately, however, the true test of our results here will require directly accessing the ocean and, perhaps one day, the ocean floor itself.”

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The growing X-ray shell of the 1604 Kepler supernova

3:31 pm

Kepler's supernovae remnant over time
Click to see movie.

Cool image time! Astronomers now have created a short movie from X-ray data compiled by the Chandra X-ray Observatory accumulated during the past quarter century showing the expansion of the cloud ejected from the 1604 supernova discovered by astronomer Johannes Kepler.

The two images to the right are the first and last frames in the movie. Though they appear the same, if you look closely you will see that in the more recent image the cloud is larger. From the press release:

Supernova remnants, the debris fields left behind after a stellar explosion, often glow strongly in X-ray light because the material has been heated to millions of degrees from the blast. The remnant is located in our galaxy, about 17,000 light-years from Earth, allowing Chandra to make … detailed images of the debris and how it changes with time. This latest video includes its X-ray data from 2000, 2004, 2006, 2014, and 2025. This makes it the longest-spanning video that Chandra has ever released, enabled by Chandra’s longevity. Only Chandra, with its sharp X-ray images and longevity, can see changes like those seen here.

…The researchers used the video to show that the fastest parts of the remnant are traveling at about 13.8 million miles per hour (2% of the speed of light), moving toward the bottom of the image. Meanwhile, the slowest parts are traveling toward the top at about 4 million miles per hour (0.5% of the speed of light). This large difference in speed is because the gas that the remnant is plowing into toward the top of the image is denser than the gas toward the bottom. This gives scientists information about the environments into which this star exploded.

This is one of the curses that astronomers live with. Things take a loooong time to unfold, often several generations. Thus Kepler might see this supernova when it erupts, but the explosion continues for many centuries.

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Scientists: We think the little red dots in the early universe are supermassive stars

11:48 am

The uncertainty of science: Using the Webb Space Telescope, scientists now believe that the mysterious little red dots that Webb had previously detected in the early universe are actually supermassive stars, the predicted first stars to form after the Big Bang that also might produce the universe’s first black holes.

In 2022 the first deep images from Webb, a telescope designed to see longer wavelengths of light, revealed little red dots in the distant universe. The new results gave scientists more context into what these mysterious, compact, and very old objects could be. Past theories explaining little red dots required complicated explanations involving black holes, accretion disks and dust clouds, but the new model shows that a single massive star can also naturally produce all of the key signatures in little red dots: extreme brightness, a distinctive V-shaped spectrum, and the rare combination of one bright hydrogen emission.

Now, for the first time, astronomers have created a detailed physical model of a rare, metal-free, rapidly growing supermassive star about a million times the mass of the Sun, and showed that its unique features are a perfect match for little red dots.

Models outlining the early stages of the universe had predicted that the first stars formed after the Big Bang would be much more massive than the stars seen today. This hypothesis fits that model.

At the same time, no one should take any theory to the bank. The data remains very slim, so that all conclusions remain based on a very weak foundation.

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An excellent summary of Europe’s rocket companies, both established and startups

11:21 am

Link here. This list is a great summary of all the rocket companies in Europe, most of which are startups that haven’t yet launched. It also includes the two companies that are already established, ArianeGroup and Avio.

With each company the report provides a nice quick status overview. It ranks some lower than I (Rocket Factory Augsburg), but the analysis is based on all the same stories I’ve posted here on Behind the Black in the past year, plus a few extra details about companies I had not yet heard of.

Based on this review, it appears that at least three European startups are gearing up for a first launch in 2026. It would be surprising if all three succeed in getting off the ground, but the momentum is definitely building towards a lot of excitement in the next year or two.

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Computer model: A thin ice cap can preserve liquid water on Mars

10:37 am

The parameters used in the computer model
Figure 1 of the paper, showing the parameters
used in the computer model

Using a computer model, scientists have found that a thin cap of ice can act to allow liquid water to exist in lakes on Mars, for extended periods of time.

You can read their paper here. From the abstract:

Working at a localized scale, we combine climate input from the Mars Weather Research & Forecasting general circulation model with geologic constraints from Curiosity rover observations to identify potential climatic conditions required to maintain a seasonally ice-free lake. Our results show that an initially small lake system (10 m deep) with ∼50 mm monthly water input and seasonal ice cover would retain seasonal liquid water for over 100 years, demonstrating conditions close to long-term lake survivability.

From the press release:

In some simulations, the lakes completely froze during colder seasons, whereas in others, the lakes remained liquid and were covered by a thin layer of ice instead of freezing solid. This thin ice acted as an insulating lid, significantly reducing water loss while still allowing sunlight to warm the lake ice during warmer months. As a result of this seasonal cycling, some simulated lakes barely changed in depth over decades, suggesting that they could be stable for longer durations even with average air temperatures below freezing for much of the time.

Because this research is based on computer modeling, it carries great uncertainties. At the same time, it seems to explain the puzzling nature of Martian geology, which has repeatedly suggested the existence of liquid water in the past on a planet that has always been too cold with too thin an atmosphere for liquid water to exist. Data has also suggested that pockets of liquid water might have existed at the base of glaciers. This research aligns with that data.

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Sunspot update: Ramp down to minimum continues?

10:13 am

Another year, another month, another sunspot update! Time to post my monthly update of the never-ending sunspot cycle on the Sun, using NOAA’s own monthly update of its graph of sunspot activity and annotating it with extra information to illustrate the larger scientific context.

The green dot on the graph below indicates the level of sunspot activity on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere during the month of December. Unlike November, when activity plunged, in December the sunspot count recovered, producing more sunspots, though the number still reflected the ramp down to solar minimum that NOAA’s panel of solar scientists had predicted in April 2025 (as indicated by the purple/magenta line).
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Rocketdyne to reappear with sale by L3Harris of its civilian rocket engine division

9:30 am

The name Rocketdyne is about to rise from the ashes with the sale by L3Harris of its civilian rocket engine division to the private equity firm AE Industrial Partners.

The firm is selling a 60 percent stake, worth $845 million, and maintaining about a 40 percent share of the space propulsion business unit, which focuses on technologies related to NASA and civil space activities. For example, its products include nuclear power systems for future missions to the moon and Mars, and the RL10 engine that powers the upper stage for United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan heavy lifter.

That said, the RS-25 rocket engine business is excluded from the sale; the engine is the primary propulsion system on NASA’s Space Launch System being designed to send crews to the moon under the Artemis mission.

When L3Harris purchased Aerojet-Rocketdyne in 2023, the names of these two companies from the very beginnings of the space age vanished. It now appears that AE is going to bring one back.

AE Industrial ― which previously has invested in commercial space companies including York Space Systems, Redwire and Firefly — said in an announcement today that the new entity will be named Rocketdyne “in recognition of its heritage and longstanding innovation within space propulsion technology.”

Aerojet-Rocketdyne had been in trouble for years prior to is purchase, and it remains uncertain whether the engine part of this new Rocketdyne company can compete. Its main business right now is building the engines used by the SLS rocket, which in the long run has a limited future.

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Detection of the wake of Betelgeuse’s companion star

4:27 pm

The wake of Betelgeuse's companion star

Astronomers believe they have detected evidence of the wake created by Betelgeuse’s companion star as it plows through the primary star’s vast atmosphere.

You can read their paper here [pdf]. The cartoon to the right, annotated by me to post here, is figure 5 of the paper, looking down at Betelgeuse’s pole. It is not to scale. The scientists have nicknamed the companion Siwarha.

The team detected Siwarha’s wake by carefully tracking changes in the star’s light over nearly eight years. These changes show the effects of the previously unconfirmed companion as it plows through the outer atmosphere of Betelgeuse. This discovery resolves one of the biggest mysteries about the giant star, helping scientists to explain how it behaves and evolves while opening new doors to understanding other massive stars nearing the end of their lives.

Located roughly 650 light-years away from Earth in the constellation Orion, Betelgeuse is a red supergiant star so large that more than 400 million Suns could fit inside. Because of its enormous size and proximity, Betelgeuse is one of the few stars whose surface and surrounding atmosphere can be directly observed by astronomers, making it an important and accessible laboratory for studying how giant stars age, lose mass, and eventually explode as supernovae.

Using NASA’s Hubble and ground-based telescopes at the Fred Lawrence Whipple Observatory and Roque de Los Muchachos Observatory, the team was able to see a pattern of changes in Betelgeuse, which provided clear evidence of a long-suspected companion star and its impact on the red supergiant’s outer atmosphere. Those include changes in the star’s spectrum, or the specific colors of light given off by different elements, and the speed and direction of gases in the outer atmosphere due to a trail of denser material, or wake. This trail appears just after the companion crosses in front of Betelgeuse every six years, or about 2,100 days, confirming theoretical models.

Betelgeuse is essentially a giant blob that undulates like a blob of water floating in weightlessness on ISS. Knowing the location and orbit of this companion will help astronomers better understand the central star’s periodic inexplicable changes.

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January 5, 2026 Quick space links

2:55 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

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“Round Deposits” in Martian crater

11:41 am

Round deposits in a crater
Click for original image.

Today’s cool image could also be entered into my “What the heck?!” category of strange Martian geology. The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on October 19, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

The science team labels this as “Round Deposits in Crater.” And yup, that’s what we have, round and flat small mesas inside an unnamed 3,500-foot-wide very shallow crater (no more than 10-20 feet deep) that also appears to be sitting higher than the surrounding landscape. Furthermore, several nearby craters are also raised, with one having its own oblong flat interior mesa. Moreover, the terrain around the crater appears stippled, as if it has been eroding or sublimating away.

The latitude, 37 degrees north, provides the first clue for explaining this weird landscape.
» Read more

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A UK law professor and news outlet prove the UK is not the place to launch rockets

9:27 am

Proposed or active spaceports in North Europe
Proposed or active spaceports in North Europe

If I had any remaining hopes that the United Kingdom might finally begin to reform its Byzantine space regulations that bankrupted one rocket company and has blocked any launches from its proposed spaceports for almost a decade — allowing other spaceports in Europe to attract rocket companies and leap ahead — those hopes vanished in reading an article in the Shetland Times today, in which a professor specializing in UK space law described its red tape as “very good,” drawing “on best practice from other industries and jurisdictions.”

Alexander Simmonds of the University of Dundee says a balance should be struck to avoid launch operators being put off by strict regulatory requirements. The lecturer in space law and writer behind The Space Legislation of the United Kingdom says UK regulation of the space industry is “very good” and draws on best practice from other industries and jurisdictions.

Licences are in place for SaxaVord to host the first vertical satelite launch in 2026, and Dr Simmonds says operators have taken responsibilities “very seriously”. But he fears future operators could look elsewhere if compliance becomes too much of a problem and more cost-effective alternatives are available.

“My own view is we’re in a very good place at the moment, as regards to regulation,” Dr Simmonds told The Shetland Times. “I think that the legilsators have been cautious with this and have been very entitled to be, given the nature of what we are dealing with.”

Both this so-called expert and the journalist interviewing him appear entirely ignorant about the history of past decade. While red tape in the UK has blocked or seriously delayed launches, rocket startups have “looked elsewhere,” signing deals and launching from Norway’s long established Andoya spaceport that has now gone commercial with enthusiastic government support. At the same time, new spaceport projects have begun at three other locations, all of which appear to also have support from their local governments in Sweden and Germany. While the UK government has choked off business, the governments at these other spaceports have moved aggressively to ease regulation.

The cluelessness of both Simmonds and the Shetland Times reporter indicates there is absolutely no urgency in the UK to fix things, and in fact it appears they aren’t even aware their emperor is wearing no clothes.

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The space station race: Startup Max Space to establish factory at Kennedy in Florida

8:56 am

Thunderbird, with cut-out showing interior and person for scale
Max Space’s proposed Thunderbird station, with cut-out showing
interior and person for scale. Click for original images.

The space station startup Max Space has apparently decided to establish its manufacturing facility at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, and expects to hire its first 30 to 50 employees there this year.

Currently working with Space Florida, Max Space is moving toward setting up operation in Exploration Park on Space Commerce Way, and has already begun hiring. While the company already has a address in Exploration Park, they are seeking to set up in an existing 20,000 to 30,000 square-foot manufacturing facility. This is where the large space habitat modules will be manufactured.

While Space Florida confirmed Max Space’s intentions to move into the area, no further details were provided. Max Space said they expect to bring 30 to 50 new hires onboard within the first half of 2026.

The company had previously positioned itself as the builder of modules that any one of the four other commercial private space stations could buy and add to their stations. It now appears it has decided to enter the competition as its own station, proposing Thunderbird as its bid. It is gearing up to fly a smaller demonstration mission in ’27 to prove its inflatable design that is based on the same technology used by the modules built by the now-defunct company Bigelow.

With this in mind, I have now added Max Space to my rankings of the commercial stations under construction, and have placed it ahead of Blue Origin’s Orbital Reef station, based on my impression of where both projects presently stand. Essentially, they are tied for last place, but I put Max Space ahead because it seems to have positive momentum, while the partnership of Blue Origin and Sierra Space appears to be faltering.
» Read more

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Innospace releases preliminary results of launch failure

8:35 am

The South Korean rocket startup Innospace last week released its first preliminary results of its investigation into the December 22, 2025 failure during the first orbital launch attempt of its Hanbit-Nano rocket.

Based on video footage and preliminary data available to date, the vehicle achieved approximately 30 seconds of nominal ascent. During its passage through cloud layers, communication between the vehicle and ground systems was lost. Subsequently, the vehicle sustained structural damage of an undetermined cause, leading to separation into multiple sections and indications of first-stage engine thrust termination. As a result, the vehicle lost propulsion and attitude control and entered free fall, separating into the first stage, second stage, and smaller debris fragments.

As the calculated Instant Impact Point (IIP) remained within the launch site’s designated safety perimeter, and to prevent debris dispersion and residual hazards, the Flight Termination System (FTS) was activated in accordance with procedures pre-coordinated with Brazilian safety authorities. The launch vehicle was detonated at the point of ground impact, resulting in early mission termination.

In plain language, the rocket broke up about 30 seconds after lift-off, and as its pieces hit the ground engineers activated the self-destruct software.

The company says it hopes to try again in ’26, launching once again from Brazil’s Alcantera spaceport. I suspect it will take longer than that to pin down the cause of the rocket’s “structural damage” and fix it. The data so far suggests a fundamental flaw that require a major redesign.

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Review of SpaceX’s 2026 Superheavy/Starship test flights

11:22 am

Link here. The article begins by reviewing the work SpaceX is doing at both Boca Chica in Texas and Cape Canaveral in Florida. In the end, the company is aiming to have two Starship launchpads at Boca Chica and three launchpads in Florida, with both locations have extensive manufacturing facilities capable of building ships and boosters almost continually.

It then provides a nice review of all five Superheavy/Starship test flights that took place in 2025, a review that makes it very clear how much was accomplished, and indicates the possibilities for ’26. If SpaceX could manage almost one flight every two and a half months last year, despite two test stand explosions, the odds are excellent it will exceed that pace this year.

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SpaceX launches 29 more Starlink satellites, plus a review of its Falcon 9 first stage fleet

12:10 am

The beat goes on: SpaceX tonight successfully launched another 29 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

This was SpaceX’s second launch in 2026. At this moment the company is the only one to have launched anything this year.

The rocket’s first stage was on its first flight, landing successfully on a drone ship in the Atlantic. As new boosters are now introduced so rarely, I decided to look back at how many new stages SpaceX has been introducing each year to get a sense of the size of its fleet. The rough chart below is based on the data on this Wikipedia page. It begins in 2018 because that is when SpaceX introduced the Block 5 version of the stage that it still uses, and says is designed to do as many as 40 flights.

New stages introduced each year:
—————————————–
2018: 6 (all now deactivated or expended)
2019: 7 (all now deactivated or expended)
2020: 4 (all now deactivated or expended)
2021: 3
2022: 7 (5 deactivated or expended)
2023: 9 (5 deactivated or expended)
2024: 9 (3 deactivated or expended)
2025: 8

According to that webpage, SpaceX has approximately 25 active stages in its fleet. The numbers above suggest the company has been increasing the size of its fleet steadily. In fact, since 2022 it appears the company has added 23 stages to the fleet. In 2025 it appears it added a new stage about every 20 launches.

This estimate is rough and is almost certainly not precisely accurate. For example, several stages listed as active have flown only once, or have not flown in awhile.

Nonetheless, this rough count helps explain how SpaceX can launch so frequently. It now has a robust fleet of Falcon 9 boosters to draw on, and it is growing that fleet to meet its needs. All it needs to do is make sure it can manufacture enough upper stages and satellites to fill its launch manifest.

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NASA: The leak in the Zvezda module on ISS has apparently been sealed

10:51 am

According to one NASA official, the leaks in the Zvezda module on ISS that have been on-going for more than five years have apparently all been sealed.

However, recently two sources indicated that the leaks have stopped. And NASA has now confirmed this. “Following additional inspections and sealing activities, the pressure in the transfer tunnel attached to the Zvezda Service Module of the International Space Station, known as the PrK, is holding steady in a stable configuration,” a space agency spokesman, Josh Finch, told Ars. “NASA and Roscosmos continue to monitor and investigate the previously observed cracks for any future changes that may occur.”

While good news, no one should feel sanguine. The leaks occurred because the hull of Zvezda has developed stress fractures, due to age (more than a quarter century in orbit) and the repeated dockings to its aft port. Future fractures and leaks are still possible, with the chance of a catastrophic failure very possible.

It would be prudent for NASA to continue to shut the hatch between the U.S. and Russian halves of the station, whenever a docking is taking place.

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India’s space agency: At least six launches in 2026

10:42 am

According to remarks by the head of India’s space agency ISRO last week, the agency is planning at least six launches in 2026, including two unmanned test flights of its Gaganyaan manned capsule.

Also planned will be the first launch of its PSLV rocket that was manufactured entirely by commercial vendors, rather than ISRO itself. The goal by the Modi government had been to transfer ownership of the rocket to private companies, but ISRO revised that to retain control and ownership while giving manufacture to the private companies HAL & L&T, thus defeating the essential goal of shifting power to the private sector.

The total does not include possible orbital attempts by two rocket startups, Skyroot and Agnikul.

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SpaceX completes first launch in 2026

12:36 am

The beat goes on! SpaceX tonight successfully placed an Italian Earth observation satellite into orbit, its Falcon 9 lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base.

The satellite’s data will be used by Italy for both military and civil purposes. The rocket’s first stage completed its 21st flight, landing back at Vandenberg. The two fairings completed their 2nd and 23rd flights respectively.

At this moment, SpaceX has the only launch in 2026.

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Many Martian mysteries in one spot

11:29 am

Many Martian mysteries in one spot
Click for original image.

Just because there are no new images coming back from Mars at this time because the Sun is in the way does not mean we can’t enjoy more cool Martian images. The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on October 20, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

Labeled merely a “terrain sample,” this means it was taken not as part of any particular research project but to fill a gap in the camera’s schedule. The camera team needs to take regular photographs in order to maintain the camera’s proper temperature, and when there is a long gap they add a terrain sample image to the schedule. Usually they try to pick some target of interest.

In this case the target is this 2,500-foot-high cliff, in which we can see a whole range of Martian geological mysteries. First there are the slope streaks on the cliff, a feature unique to Mars but as yet unexplained. Resembling avalanches, these streaks leave no debris piles at their base, do not change the topography in any way, and can appear randomly throughout the year, fading with time. Though the streaks in this picture are dark, streaks can also be bright.

Both the parallel ridges at the base of the cliff, as well as the cliff itself, are remnants of other major geological events, at least based on present theories.
» Read more

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SpaceX doing trial runs of specialized barge for transporting Starship/Superheavy from Boca Chica to Florida

9:32 am

SpaceX has now confirmed that it is doing trial runs of a barge specifically designed for transporting Starship/Superheavy from the manufacturing facility in Boca Chica to its Florida launchpads.

[SpaceX’s Vice President of Launch, Kiko] Dontchev also clarified that both the Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage would be tilted to a horizontal position for maritime transit, in response to an artist’s rendering of a Starship traveling vertically aboard a vessel. “Initial deliveries are a single booster or ship per trip, with the plan to move to multiple vehicles per transit sooner than later,” he wrote. “You’ll thank me later.”

These barge trials, combined with the fact that SpaceX has already shipped significant Starship/Superheavy components to Florida even as it builds rocket manufacturing facility there, strongly suggest the first Florida launches are not too far in the future, possibly even this year.

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ESA funds Danish lunar orbiter

9:16 am

The European Space Agency (ESA) has agreed to fund the first Danish-built interplanetary probe, a smallsat lunar orbiter dubbed Mani that will launch in ’29 and map the Moon’s surface.

The Máni mission is a lunar mission that will use a satellite to map the Moon’s surface with high-resolution images and create detailed 3D maps. The goal is to make it safer for astronauts and lunar rovers to land and move around on the Moon. The satellite will orbit the Moon’s north and south poles, which are key areas for future human missions.

The mission will also map how light reflects from areas on the Moon that are used to study Earth’s ability to reflect sunlight onto the lunar surface – the so-called earthshine. This knowledge could improve our understanding of how Earth’s climate will evolve.

The University of Copenhagen leads the mission and is responsible for the mission’s Science Operations Center, which will plan which areas to map and analyze the vast number of images generated.[emphasis mine]

I love how this European press release about a lunar orbiter somehow makes its most important mission studying climate change on Earth. Utterly idiotic.

Mani will use the changing shadows to create detailed topographic maps. As it is unlikely it will be capable of providing better data than produced over the past sixteen years by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), this mission is mostly an engineering demo by Denmark and the Danish startup, Space Inventor, that is building the satellite for a consortium of universities. If successful the satellite will possibly be able to replace LRO (which is going to fail sooner or later), and provide data on any lunar surface changes that occur in the future.

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SpaceX to do a major orbital reconfiguration of its Starlink constellation

9:03 am

According to a X post yesterday by Michael Nicholls, SpaceX’s Starlink engineering vice-president, the company over the next year will be lowering the orbits of more than 4,000 satellites in its Starlink constellation, in order to allow the company to more quickly de-orbit them if they fail.

We are lowering all Starlink satellites orbiting at ~550 km to ~480 km (~4400 satellites) over the course of 2026. The shell lowering is being tightly coordinated with other operators, regulators, and USSPACECOM.

Lowering the satellites results in condensing Starlink orbits, and will increase space safety in several ways. As solar mininum approaches, atmospheric density decreases which means the ballistic decay time at any given altitude increases – lowering will mean a >80% reduction in ballistic decay time in solar minimum, or 4+ years reduced to a few months. Correspondingly, the number of debris objects and planned satellite constellations is significantly lower below 500 km, reducing the aggregate likelihood of collision.

Nicholls notes that it presently has only two dead satellites in the present fleet of 9,000 satellites, but decided to do this move regardless, as it also apparently will reduce collision risks with other satellites as well.

Not surprisingly, China’s state-run press and our anti-capitalism propaganda press immediately tried to give China credit for this change, while lambasting SpaceX. That China is contributing to the risk of collision with its own multiple giant satellite constellations and is doing nothing on its own is apparently irrelevant to both. Our nice of them.

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The three week communications blackout from Mars has begun

11:30 am

Last image before blackout from Curiosity
Click for original.

Last image before blackout from Perseverance
Click for original.

The two images to the right, both downloaded today (here and here) from the Mars rovers Curiosity (top) and Perseverance, illustrate quite clearly the beginning of the three-week-long communications blackout from Mars caused every two years when the orbits of Earth and Mars places the Sun in-between. As the Curiosity science team noted in a December 22, 2025 update:

This holiday season coincides with conjunction — every two years, because of their different orbits, Earth and Mars are obstructed from one another by the Sun; this one will last from Dec. 27 to Jan. 20. We do not like to send commands through the Sun in case they get scrambled, so we have been finishing up a few last scientific observations before preparing Curiosity for its quiet conjunction break.

Apparently engineers were able to squeeze data and images from Mars for a few extra days, but the incomplete nature of these two pictures — combined with the lack of any other new images today — tells us that the blackout has definitely begun. That they were able to get these additional images after conjunction began suggests the blackout might also end a bit earlier than expected.

Though there is always a concern that something could go wrong while communications are blocked, the risks are small. The science teams for all the Mars orbiters and rovers have dealt with this situation now almost a dozen times since operations became routine there more than a quarter century ago.

The only spacecraft at real risk this conjunction is Maven. Contact was lost from it in early December for unknown reasons, and all efforts to regain communications have so far failed. All engineers know from the little data they have gotten back is it appears to be tumbling. This three week blackout will make any chance of recovery extremely unlikely.

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The global launch industry in 2025: The real space race is between SpaceX and China

8:01 am

In 2025 the worldwide revolution in rocketry that began about a decade ago continued. Across the globe new private commercial rocket companies are forming, not just in the United States. And across the globe, the three-quarters-of-a century domination by government space agencies is receding, though those agencies are right now pushing back with all their might to protect their turf.

Dominating this revolution in 2025 in every way possible however were two entities, one a private American company and the second a communist nation attempting to imitate capitalism. The former is SpaceX, accomplishing more in this single year than whole nations and even the whole globe had managed in any year since the launch of Sputnik. The latter is China, which in 2025 became a true space power, its achievements matching and even exceeding anything done by either the U.S. or the Soviet Union for most of the space age.
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