Author: Robert Zimmerman

More economic disasters due to government imposed shut downs

10:05 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Below are some stories I found today describing the on-going the collapse of the economy due to the nationwide lock downs imposed by state and local governments because of their panic over the Wuhan flu.

Note how the first two stories are about the sufferings of state employees, whether in government or academia. Note too how these stories only mention as an aside the collapse of the real economy. Who cares if millions of private businesses are going under? What’s really important is that we won’t be able to grab their profits and the government will have to shrink! Horrors!

Only the last two stories are about the real crash, with only the last, buried among many other stories on RealClearPolitics, telling the true tale:

The Commerce Department said on Thursday business applications dropped 21.4% in the week ending April 11, compared with the same period last year.

…The slump in business applications comes as states and local governments have issued “stay-at-home” or “shelter-in-place” orders affecting more than 90% of Americans to control the spread of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory illness caused by the virus, and abruptly halting economic activity.

At least 22 million people have filed for unemployment benefits in the last four weeks. Retail sales suffered a record drop in March and output at factories declined by the most since 1946. Homebuilding crumbled in March at a speed not seen in 36 years. Economists believe the economy contracted at its steepest pace since World War Two in the first quarter. [emphasis mine]

A 21% drop in new businesses tells us that the economy will not recover from this madness very quickly. Money is drying up, the banks are under a strain, and the economy is shrinking like a burst balloon.

The middle paragraph in the quote above is intended to justify this crash and government abuse of power by the use of the word “lethal,” thus playing up danger of the Wuhan flu, even though the evidence still shows it to be, like the flu, only a threat to the old and the sick. Like the flu, most everyone else simply fights it off with no long term consequences.

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Overall U.S. death rate is at a multi-year LOW

1:36 pm

Despite the panic over the Wuhan virus, it now appears that the overall U.S. death rate this winter season is at a multi-year low, no worse than 2014, 2016, and 2019, and far better than 2015, 2017, and 2018 (when we were hit with one of the worst flu seasons in years).

The article at the link for one example cites the totals for the first week in April:

On April 5th, the U.S. saw 1,344 COVID-19 deaths, as the number of cases in the U.S. accelerated. The overall number of deaths in the U.S., or the crude death rate did not show a correlated rise.

At the very least, this data shows we need to analyze COVID-19 deaths in the context of the broader U.S. mortality rate from all causes. It appears normal deaths are being attributed to COVID-19 if the patient is COVID-19+, even if another underlying chronic cause is responsible.

It then includes a graph showing the total deaths since 2014, plotted weekly. This year is remarkably ho-hum. The last two years were far worse. Go to the link and look at the graph for yourself if you have doubts.

Nor should anyone have ever been surprised by these numbers, even three months ago. All the evidence on the ground about COVID-19, once it had escaped from China and reliable data could begin to be gathered, suggested strongly that its general attack on humans was similar to the flu. Younger people were hardly bothered by it. Instead, it killed the old and sick. Since those people can’t die twice, it is manifestly obvious that we should have expected the overall numbers to not go up much.

Which is exactly what has happened.

Moreover, the panic over the Wuhan flu caused people to social distance themselves, which certainly acted to cause a drop in all infectious diseases. This might explain this year’s lower numbers, but it must also be noted that the drop in 2020 is not really that significant, illustrating again the pointlessness of all these preventative measures. You really can’t run from infectious diseases. They are going to spread through the population regardless. Only if it appears the disease is attacking the young should extreme measures be taken.

To put it bluntly, our elected leaders in Washington and in statehouses across the country, working in tandem with the incompetent (but well-paid) bureaucrats in Washington and with a overly emotional and partisan press willing to say any lie in order to attack Donald Trump, have caused what might turn out to be another great depression, for absolutely no reason at all.

In the process they have also acted to nullify the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, working as hard as they could to destroy the freest nation in the history of the world, and the most successful because of that freedom.

Are you enraged yet? And are you going to do something about it in November?

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Wuhan panic wipes out NY restaurant business

3:54 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Because of the government shut down caused by the panic over the Wuhan virus, the entire New York city restaurant business, one of that city’s most important industries, is now facing closure and bankruptcy, with many stores boarding up their windows and going out of business.

Most restaurants are completely shuttered. Many that tried takeout and delivery ended their operations for fear of their employees and customers’ safety. Those that are still trying to make it work are unsustainably earning a fraction of what they normally would make. Federal Small Business Administration loans have yet to hit most bank accounts, and the programs have already run out of money. Even California, which is far ahead of New York in containing the virus, will reduce capacity in restaurants when the shutdown finally lifts, a move that many restaurateurs say will likely hurt businesses as they attempt to recover from the crisis.

The first sign of longer term decline is here: the boarded up storefront. Common during the lead-up to hurricanes to prevent flying debris from smashing up windows, plywood is otherwise used to minimize the risks of burglaries and looting. Will it get that bad? No owner that we reached out to would openly acknowledge it. But as the crisis drags on indefinitely, restaurants are starting to close permanently and unemployment continues to skyrocket. Some restaurateurs are taking a preventative tact in case the economic impact takes an even deeper turn.

The article talks about government help, but there isn’t enough money in the universe capable of covering these losses if the government shut downs continue much longer.

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Study suggests COVID-19 death rate is far less than presently reported, comparable to flu

3:47 pm

The uncertainty of science: A California large-scale study of COVID-19 anti-bodies in the general population has found that the infection rate for the Wuhan virus could be 50 to 85 times higher than present counts, which would mean that the death rate is actually quite low, comparable to the flu.

The results of the study are preliminary and not peer-reviewed, but the general takeaways would seem to strongly contribute to the notion that there have been a large number of COVID-19 cases that went undetected.

Due to questions over the antibody tests’ efficacy, researchers adjusted for test performance characteristics by using the test manufacturer’s data and a sample of controls tested at Stanford University. Again, the results are preliminary and the study has not been peer-reviewed, but researchers found a raw, unadjusted antibody prevalence of 1.5 percent, which was scaled up to 2.5-4.2 percent when adjusting for population and test performance characteristics.

Researchers estimate that if 2.5 to 4.2 percent of the county has already been infected, the true number of total cases in early April — both active and recovered — ranges between 48,000 and 81,000. The county had reported just under 1,000 cases at the time the study was conducted, which would mean cases are being underreported by a factor of 50 to 85. “Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health,” Dr. Eran Bendavid, the Stanford professor who led the study, told ABC News.

If the study’s numbers are accurate, the true mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 are both substantially lower than current estimates, and due to lag between infection and death, researchers project a true mortality rate between .12 and .20. [emphasis mine]

The researchers also note that, based on this study, not enough people have yet been infected to achieve herd immunity, a conclusion totally reasonable considering the effort being made to prevent infection.

Regardless, if true this illustrates again that this virus does not merit the mass hysteria it is causing. Because it, like the flu, mostly kills older and sicker people, not young healthy individuals, the overall mortality will almost certainly not be much different than past years. While it is tragic that this disease, plus the flu, is making survival harder and less likely for older individuals (such as myself by the way), it is unconscionable for us to bankrupt the whole society and abandon the rule of law for this reason.

Sadly, that is apparently what we are doing.

As the researchers note, these results are preliminary, and could turn out to be false. That they coincide with other research in South Korea and on the Diamond Princess cruise ship however gives them some weight.

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Wuhan panic destroys flower business worldwide

1:31 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: The worldwide panic over the Wuhan flu has in one month practically destroyed the $8.5 billion flower/bouquet industry.

Much of the crash has been caused by customers themselves cancelling weddings and events, but that process has been accelerated and promoted by the decision of governors to put their states under house arrest.

Within a few days, all of [flower seller Laura] Clare’s clients planning April weddings were scrambling to pick dates in the fall. She had to tell brides that some flowers, such as cherry blossoms, might not be available then. Soon, as the number of Covid-19 cases in New Jersey passed 1,000, the governor ordered all but essential businesses to close. Florists didn’t make the cut.

With her supply wilting, Clare started giving bouquets away, delivering some to older parishioners at a local church. She furloughed her five full-time employees and canceled her flower orders, which usually total at least $5,000 a week. She’s applying for a Small Business Administration loan that would let her put her workers back on the payroll. “I’ve been through 9/11,” Clare says. “I’ve been through Hurricane Irene, Hurricane Sandy. I’ve never seen anything like this before.”

As with all the closures, the cancellations send disaster in waves throughout the economy. Event venues are now shuttered, their employees facing unemployment. Caterers have no work. Photographers, bakers, clothing designers, everyone involved in this industry is now facing bankruptcy and a crash that they will not recover from for months to years, if ever.

When it comes to something like the Wuhan virus, rational people do a cost-benefit analysis and apply some common sense. It makes no sense to destroy the entire worldwide economy because of a disease that is not going to be much worse than a typical flu season, especially because like the flu COVID-19 focuses most of its worst attacks against the older very sick population. The bulk of the population fights it off with no problem, and goes on living.

Now however we have decided to not allow that, even if the disease does them no harm. They must starve instead.

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Economic index experienced biggest crash ever due to Wuhan panic

1:16 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: The index of leading economic indicators experienced the biggest crash in March in its sixty year history, all due to the shutdowns imposed by the government in panic over the Wuhan flu.

The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators (LEI) tumbled 6.7% last month, the largest decrease in the series’ 60-year history. Data for February was revised down to show the index falling 0.2% instead of gaining 0.1% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index dropping 7.0% in March.

“The sharp drop in the LEI reflects the sudden halting in business activity as a result of the global pandemic and suggests the U.S. economy will be facing a very deep contraction,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board in Washington.

I continue to find it strange that these stories about the crashing economy are being reported in very few places. This is real news, effecting millions, unlike COVID-19.

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Strange terrain in the Martian lowlands

12:42 pm

Strange terrain in northern lowlands
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The science team for the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) yesterday released a new captioned image, entitled “Disrupted Sediments in Acidalia Planitia”, noting that the photo

…shows a pitted, blocky surface, but also more unusually, it has contorted, irregular features.

Although there are impact craters in this area, some of the features … are too irregular to be relic impact craters or river channels. One possibility is that sedimentary layers have been warped from below to create these patterns. The freezing and thawing of subsurface ice is a mechanism that could have caused this.

The image to the right, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, shows the lower quarter of the full image. While in some areas it does appear as if changes below the surface caused the surface to warp and collapse, as suggested by the caption, in other places it looks more like the top layers themselves sublimated away without disturbing what was below them.

Note for example the pits near the bottom of the photograph. They clearly show sedimentary layers on their cliff walls, including the tiny circular mesa in the middle of the rightmost pit.

If these pits were collapsing from below, their cliffs would be more disturbed, because it would have been those lower layers that sublimated first. Instead, it appears that the top layer disappeared first, followed by each lower layer, one by one.

This region of strange terrain is located in the middle of the northern lowland plains. The overview map below gives some context, with the small white box showing this photo’s location.
» Read more

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First manned Dragon flight scheduled for May 27th

10:30 am

Capitalism in space: NASA today officially announced May 27, 2020 as the scheduled launch date for the first manned Dragon flight to ISS, the first time American astronauts will fly from American soil on an American rocket in an American spacecraft since the shuttle was retired almost a decade ago.

The launch is set for 4:32 pm (Eastern), and I am sure will be live streams by both NASA and SpaceX.

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SpaceX reuses sections of damaged Starship prototype for next version

9:07 am

Capitalism in space: In building its fourth Starship prototype for testing, SpaceX has decided to reuse large sections of the previous Starship prototype, badly damaged during a pressure test several weeks ago.

On April 15th, eight days after Starship SN3’s [the damaged third prototype] remaining aft section was cut in half, the rearmost half – known as the skirt – was spotted stacked beneath a brand new engine section built for SN4. While confirming that a significant part of SN3 will be reused on SN4, it also indicates that only a less critical SN3 remnant was fit to join SpaceX’s next prototype.

Though they are not reusing the engines from that third prototype, I have full confidence they will, as they were part of the same bottom section of that prototype that was damaged during the test. This statement is incorrect. I had mistakenly assumed that because SpaceX had said it planned actual test hops eventually with this third prototype that three engines were already in place. They were not.

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Space radiation may increase risk of cancer

8:59 am

Using mice and models, scientists have concluded that humans who spend long periods in space, exposed to its radiation, will have a 3% higher risk for cancer.

A team led by researchers at Colorado State University and Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, which is part of the National Institutes for Health, used a novel approach to test assumptions in a model used by NASA to predict these health risks. Based on the NASA model, the team found that astronauts will have more than a three percent risk of dying of cancer from the radiation exposures they will receive on a Mars mission. That level of risk exceeds what is considered acceptable. [emphasis mine]

And how did they come to this conclusion?

…For the study, Weil and first author Dr. Elijah Edmondson, a veterinary pathologist and researcher based at the Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research in Maryland, used a unique stock of genetically diverse mice, mimicking a human population. Mice were divided into three groups with the first group receiving no radiation exposure and the other two receiving varying levels of exposure.

Edmondson, who conducted the research while completing a veterinary residency in pathology at CSU, said that for this type of research project, genetic variability is crucial. “Humans are very genetically diverse,” he explained. “You want to model that when it’s appropriate and feasible to do so.”

Weil said although the research team saw different tumor types, similar to humans, but the heavy ions did not cause any unique types of cancer. They also saw differences by sex. In humans, women are more susceptible to radiation-induced cancers than men; one of the main reasons is that women live longer, allowing sufficient time for cancer to develop. In assessing the cancer risk between male and female mice in the study, scientists said the findings parallel human data.

Edmondson said the study validates the NASA model to measure cancer risks for humans from space radiation.

In a sense, this study is junk. First, it discovers the obvious (radiation increases your chances of getting cancer). Second, it is too model-dependent, so assigning any precise percentage to that increase in humans is absurd, especially when based on a sample comprised of mice.

Third, and most important, it completely forgets the reality that life is risk, exploration is dangerous, and to do great things you need to take greater chances. That NASA concludes these questionable numbers are unacceptable means that NASA will never send humans anywhere beyond Earth orbit. Ever.

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Chang’e-4 and Yutu-2 reactivated for 17th lunar day on Moon’s surface

8:40 am

Engineers have reactivated both the lander Chang’e-4 and the rover Yutu-2 for their seventeenth lunar day on the far side of the Moon.

The report comes from the state-run Chinese press, so of course, it provides no useful new information other than what I wrote above. It did have this bit of Chinese propaganda, however:

The Chang’e-4 mission embodies China’s hope to combine wisdom in space exploration with four payloads developed by the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden and Saudi Arabia. [emphasis mine]

China’s wisdom sure did everyone a lot of good in Wuhan, didn’t it?

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Splashdown of Apollo 13

7:09 am

Today marks the fiftieth anniversary of the successful safe return to Earth of the Apollo 13 astronauts, Jim Lovell, Jack Swigert, and Fred Haise. Below is CBS’s coverage of that splashdown, in three videos.

If you are still under Wuhan flu house arrest, spend the time to watch them all. Each will automatically start after the previous ends.

Once again it is astonishing to see the differences from today. Note the shot of the quiet crowds watching the telecast in Grand Central Station, and their calm but joyous applause at their first view of the capsule, its parachutes deployed, gently descending safely to the ocean.

As with the moment when the failure occurred on April 13th, the news coverage continues to be detailed and focused on covering the event, not showing off news anchors and pundits. There are no shots of Walter Cronkite in his studio. He is not the story, and he knows it.

The coverage is also patient. For long periods while the divers are securing the capsule in the water, not much happens. There is no effort to return to the studio, or to break for commercials. The focus is on the story, and the story only.

Will someone please tell this to Anderson Cooper, Jim Acosta, and others of their modern ilk?

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Homebuilding market crashes due to Wuhan virus

9:18 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: According to the Commerce Department, housing starts plunged 22.3% in the past month, the largest such decline since 1984, due to the Wuhan flu shutdowns imposed by state governments .

Economists are estimating the economy contracted as much as 10.8% in the first quarter, which would be the steepest drop in gross domestic product since 1947. They say the massive fiscal package will likely provide little cushion for the economy.

“The economy is in a downward spiral where job losses beget job losses and the federal government emergency relief checks will not be enough to turn the tide,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “The recovery is looking less V-shaped by the day as the deeper we fall, the harder it will be for the nation to climb back out of this deep hole the pandemic has dug for the economy. The worst is yet to come.” [emphasis mine]

Once again, waiting two or three or four more weeks to release us from house arrest does not mean that the economy will simply come back to life then. Once businesses crash, it can take a long time to recover.

The lack of perspective astonishes me. We are going to bankrupt ourselves and bring on a Great Depression over a new disease this year that is comparable to the annual flu season.

Want to continue social distancing? Sure. Want people to wash their hands a lot? Sure. Wear masks? If you think it necessary, sure.

Shut down all business transactions so that millions become jobless and whole industries go bankrupt? Over this? That’s insane. Not only will such a economy crash cause far more suffering and deaths, it will make it far more difficult to fight the disease.

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Clothing and cotton sales plummet 50% due to Wuhan panic

9:06 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the clothing and cotton industry has seen a 50% plunge in sales in the past month due to Wuhan panic.

The result?

As countries worldwide take measures to slow the spread of coronavirus by quarantining people and closing nonessential businesses, sales of cotton — and the clothing and textiles made from it — have declined sharply.

Demand for cotton is so low that even though prices hit their lowest levels in more than a decade, retailers and manufacturing facilities around the world are cancelling orders. “Every stage of the supply chain is getting hit,” said Jon Devine, senior economist for Cotton Incorporated, a nonprofit industry organization based in North Carolina. “Retailers are suffering,” he said. “In between, you’ve got all the manufacturers that are trying to get their orders cancelled. And then you get all the way back to the field. Farmers are entering their planting time. They have some difficult decisions to make.”

In other words, even if we get the country reopened in May (something that right now looks unlikely because of the desire of politicians to crush the economy and cancel the Bill of Rights in order to hurt Trump), this crash now is going to spiral into next year.

I should note that the stories on the crashing economy that I am posting are very easy to find. More to come. Sadly, I have had to widen my searches to more business related sources to find them. In more sane times, a business crash like this would be front page news on every news outlet in the country. Not now. We have gone insane.

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Five million more applied for unemployment benefits last week

6:09 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: More than five million people applied for unemployment benefits last week, a jump caused almost entirely by the government shutdown nationwide.

That brings total claims over the four weeks ended April 11 to nearly 22 million workers, erasing the entirety of labor market gains since the 2008 financial crisis, a stunning sign of the colossal economic damage inflicted by the virus outbreak. Before the pandemic, the largest number of Americans to seek jobless aid in a four-week stretch was 2.7 million in the fall of 1982.

With a labor force that totals about 162 million people, that brings the unemployment rate close to 13 percent.

That exceeds the 10 percent peak during the worst of the Great Recession more than a decade ago and tops the previous post-World War II high of 10.8 percent in 1982, bringing the U.S. closer to Depression-era levels of unemployment. A growing number of economists have warned the so-called “Great Lockdown” will push the global economy into the worst recession since the Great Depression.

This by the way is only the beginning. If businesses are not allowed to open in the next week or so, the cascade of new job loses will make these numbers seem tiny.

But hey, we have to prevent even one death from COVID-19, no matter what the cost, even though its overall impact remains comparable to the annual flu.

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Best Buy furloughs 51,000 workers because of Wuhan panic shutdown

5:57 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Best Buy yesterday announced that it is furloughing 51,000 workers because their stores have been shuttered by the government imposed lockdown over the Wuhan flu.

Best Buy announced Wednesday the tech chain will furlough roughly 51,000 hourly and part-time store employees nationwide beginning Sunday as the company grapples with the business impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

In addition to furloughing the workers, who include “nearly all part-time employees,” an unspecified amount of corporate staff members have volunteered to work reduced hours and, in turn, take pay cuts, while others have volunteered themselves for the temporary furloughs, Best Buy announced Wednesday.

The company will provide health benefits for three more months. No promises after that.

You know, if the company goes under, caused by the government-imposed shutdown, wouldn’t that be a kind of taking of property? And doesn’t the violate the fifth amendment of the Bill of Rights?

Oh, right, that doesn’t count anymore, according to the Democratic governor of New Jersey. I forgot.

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JC Penny faces bankruptcy due to Wuhan panic

5:47 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: J.C. Penny is now facing bankruptcy because it will unable to meet a due date on a loan because of store closures forced on it by state governors, panicking over the Wuhan flu.

Like many traditional retailers, J.C. Penney’s business has been under pressure in recent years amid declining store traffic and a shift toward digital outlets. The company’s struggles were compounded in recent weeks after the coronavirus pandemic forced the closure of 850 J.C. Penney stores.

With turnaround plans temporarily shelved due to the pandemic, J.C. Penney executives are considering filing for bankruptcy, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter. While the retailer has enough cash on hand to weather the store closures, bankruptcy protections would allow J.C. Penney to restructure its upcoming debt payments. The company owes nearly $4 billion in long-term debt.

The article did not say how many employees are presently out of work because of the shut down of JC Penny stores.

I think I will start posting these stories, as I see them. There are a lot, and they illustrate that the shut downs are hurting far more people than the Wuhan flu.

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