An evening pause: Though I do not think his hypothesis goes far enough, this short TED talk posits some intriguing ideas about leadership. And it seems somehow appropriate today on the Ides of March, which also makes me wonder what Julius Caesar (and other successful leaders, both good and evil) would think of these ideas.
Hat tip Doug Johnson.
The continuing and almost daily airline incidents in recent weeks, with planes repeatedly being forced to make emergency landings because of mechanical failures, has too often been blamed by the media on Boeing and the airplanes it builds, when almost all of these mechanical problems have had nothing to do with that airplane manufacturer. Once Boeing sells a plane to an airline, it becomes the airline’s responsibility to maintain it and keep it airworthy. Boeing itself might have serious management and quality control problems making its new planes suspect, but when older planes fail it is not Boeing’s fault. For example, all of the recent failures at United were clearly due to failures of United’s own maintenance staff, failures quite likely instigated by that company’s decision since 2020 to make race and gender the primary qualifications for hiring, not skill, talent, or knowledge.
We are now seeing the same phenomenon at American Airlines (AA), which since December has experienced its own string of flight emergencies:
» Read more
With the first Ariane-6 rocket now being stacked for its first test flight sometime in the June-July timeframe, a European Space Agency (ESA) press release today touted the payloads the rocket will carry.
All told, the rocket will carry nine cubesats, two satellite deploy systems, two test re-entry capsules, and five experimental payloads. That only four are government payloads, with the rest from a variety of private companies, once again illustrates ESA’s shift from running everything. It is acting to encourage commercial operations that are establishing capabilities that it once would have demanded it do. Instead it will be the customer for these things in the future.
The two re-entry capsules might be the most interesting payloads of all. Both are private, from ArianeGroup and the French company The Exploration Company. The latter is developing its own Nyx cargo freighter, comparable to Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus capsule, aimed at providing cargo services to the many commercial space stations presently being built. This test flight is apparently designed to prove out some of the company’s re-entry technology.
I appeared on Robert Pratt’s Pratt on Texas radio show today, doing a short ten minute interview about the successful test launch of SpaceX’s Starship/Superheavy.
The podcast is embedded below. It can also be listened to here, during the episodes final segment.
» Read more
Modern Democratic Party segregation
The only race or ethnic options offered by
MBDA’s Orlando office
“Segregation today, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever!” On March 5, 2024, federal judge Mark Pittman for the Northern District of Texas reiterated an earlier decision from June 2023 and once again ruled that the race-based awards issued by the Minority Business Development Agency (MBDA) violate numerous civil rights laws as well as the Constitution and are illegal.
Pittman then issued a permanent injunction that barred this federal agency from awarding any more benefits based on race. You can read his new ruling here [pdf].
Pittman had made an almost identical ruling in this case last year. At the time I noted that it appeared that at least one MBDA office in New Mexico was ignoring the ruling and continuing to give awards based on race. The graphic to the right, included in the judge’s ruling last week, shows a typical MBDA application form at the time. It literaly makes it impossible for a white person who is not Jewish or Hispanic from even applying.
One year later the New Mexico has changed the wording of its webpage to eliminate any mention of racial requirements. The application form [pdf] used by that office and others now includes an extra category, “Other (white),” so clearly whites can now apply.
I guarantee whites still won’t win any contracts, despite this ruling. As I predicted then,
» Read more
Click for original image.
Today’s cool image is an update of a previous cool image from July 2021. Then, I posted a captioned high resolution Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) photo of the many terraced layers within a 13-mile-wide crater dubbed Jiji and located in Arabia Terra, the largest transition zone between the Red Planet’s northern lowland plains and the southern cratered highlands. At that time the caption noted that research was on-going to see if the same layers could be identified in two other nearby craters, Banes and Sera, and thus use that data to extrapolate the long term geological history of this region on Mars.
Today’s cool image to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and enhanced to post here, was taken on January 4, 2024 as part of this research, and shows the layers in 18-mile-wide Sera crater, located only about ten miles to the east of Jiji crater. The highest mesa near the bottom of the picture is about twenty feet high on its southern side, but about 140 feet high to the north. The difference is because the crater floor under the mesa is sloping downward to its lowest point to the north.
» Read more
An optical image of Betelgeuse taken in 2017 by a ground-based
telescope, showing its not unusual aspherical shape.
Click for original image.
It appears that the red giant star Betelgeuse is once again dimming, as it did in 2019-2020.
Betelgeuse, located in Orion’s right shoulder, ordinarily shines at magnitude +0.4, a close match to neighboring Procyon in Canis Minor. But since late January it’s lost some of its luster — at least a third of a magnitude’s worth. That may not sound like much especially given the star’s variable nature, but the red supergiant star is currently the faintest it’s been in the past two years.
Betelgeuse is less like a stable star and more like a gasbag in weightlessness, its shape bouncing in and out as convection bubbles from within push their way to the surface. In some cases, as in 2019-2020, a burst of a bubble releases dust and material, which scientists believe acted to block the star’s light at that time. The dimming now could be for the same reason. Or it could be because the star’s brightness is fundamentally variable. For years it reliably pulsed every 400 days, though that variation pattern now seems to have vanished since 2020.
According to a NASA update yesterday, software engineers for the Voyager-1 spacecraft now beyond the edge of the solar system have managed to decipher the garbled data the spacecraft’s computers have been sending back to Earth since November 2023, and are in the process of analyzing that data with the hope of restoring full understandable communications.
The source of the issue appears to be with one of three onboard computers, the flight data subsystem (FDS), which is responsible for packaging the science and engineering data before it’s sent to Earth by the telemetry modulation unit.
On March 3, the Voyager mission team saw activity from one section of the FDS that differed from the rest of the computer’s unreadable data stream. The new signal was still not in the format used by Voyager 1 when the FDS is working properly, so the team wasn’t initially sure what to make of it. But an engineer with the agency’s Deep Space Network, which operates the radio antennas that communicate with both Voyagers and other spacecraft traveling to the Moon and beyond, was able to decode the new signal and found that it contains a readout of the entire FDS memory.
This new readable data was the result of a command sent two days before, suggesting that engineers are on the right track. Because Voyager-1 is so far away, 15 billion miles, it takes 22.5 hours for any command to be sent to the spacecraft, and another 22.5 hours for ground controllers to get a response. This long lag time has slowed the effort to fix the problem, but this new success suggests that a full recovery is possible.
That recovery is going to be relatively short-lived, no matter what. The nuclear-powered power sources for both Voyager spacecraft, flying since 1977, are expected to finally run out of power sometime in 2026, after almost a half century of operation. Moreover, the computers on both Voyagers are the longest continuously running computers in history.
The engineering achievement of both is astonishing.
Superheavy/Starship lifting off today
Early this morning SpaceX successfully launched its Superheavy/Starship heavy-lift rocket on its third orbital test flight.
The flight achieved almost all of its test goals, and far exceeded what was accomplished on the previous test launch in November.
First, Superheavy appeared to operate perfectly through launch, putting Starship into its correct near-orbit trajectory. The hot-fire stage separation, where Starship begins firing its engines before separation, worked as planned for the second straight time. Superheavy then refired some of its engines so as to target its correct landing zone in the Gulf of Mexico. As it approached the ocean surface, however, it started to tumble, and though some engines appeared to light for the landing burn, something went wrong and the stage was lost.
Next, Starship continued on its coast phase, during which engineers apparently tested opening and closing the payload doors as well as demonstrating a propellant transfer between two tanks. It also appeared that the engineering team was testing a variety of orientation modes for Starship. First it flew oriented stable to the Earth’s horizon. Then it appeared they placed the spacecraft in barbeque mode, where a spacecraft is placed in a steady roll in order to evenly distribute the heat on its surface.
For reasons not yet explained, the team cancelled the refire test in orbit of its Raptor engines. As the orbit chosen was low, the atmosphere still slowed the spacecraft down so that its de-orbit would still occur over the Indian Ocean.
As Starship started to descend it appeared its flaps were working successfully to control its orientation. It also appeared the heat shield tiles were working, as shown in the picture below. As Starship entered the thicker part of the atmosphere however, some tiles could be seen flying away from the ship and the spacecraft began to tumble. At an altitude of about 65 kilometers signal was lost.
» Read more
A Chinese Long March 2C launch yesterday, lifting off from the Xichang spaceport in the southwest of China, failed to put its payload of two satellites into their proper orbit.
According to China’s state-run press, the third stage of the rocket “encountered an abnormality during flight.” It provided practically no other information, including whether the satellites even made orbit at all.
UPDATE: In December 2024 one of my readers informed me that the satellites were eventually able to reach their proper orbits, using their attitude thrusters. Thus this launch has been changed to a success.
Embedded below the fold in two parts.
To listen to all of John Batchelor’s podcasts, go here.
» Read more
An evening pause: This woman regularly posts videos of her grooming sessions with different animals. This particular session is quite entertaining. It also shows the necessity of regularly combing/brushing long-hair cats. If you own one, do it! Both you and your cat will be happier.
Hat tip Diane.
Bruce Gilley of Portland State University
Bring a gun to a knife fight: Bruce Gilley, the Portland State University political scientist professor who was vilified, blacklisted, and threatened with death after writing a paper arguing that western colonialism was not all evil, that it also brought benefits to third world nations, has now taken a job as a scholar in residence at New College in Florida.
Left-leaning scholars have shown active disdain for both Gilley and New College, the latter of which is in the process of being remade from a poorly ranked campus heavily focused on social justice and critical race theory into one that prioritizes a classical liberal education.
“What they are doing there is of global significance, because this is a public university, it’s where the clearest democratic fight is,” Gilley told The College Fix in a telephone interview Friday discussing his new post. In a piece for the American Conservative, Gilley explained further: “New College is the first Reconquista of a publicly-funded venue. …Taking back power from the academic mullahs who have turned higher education in the West into little more than a madrassa system of leftist thought depends on storming the public institutions, not fleeing from them.”
Gilley’s paper on colonialism had made this quite reasonable historical statement:
» Read more
UPDATE: The FAA has now amended [pdf] SpaceX’s launch license to approve tomorrow’s Superheavy/Starship launch.
Original post:
————————-
SpaceX has sent out email notices and now revised its Starship/Superheavy webpage to reflect a target launch time for the third Superheavy/Starship launch tomorrow, March 14, 2024, at 7 am (Central).
The third flight test of Starship is targeted to launch Thursday, March 14. The 110-minute test window opens at 7:00 a.m. CT.
A live webcast of the flight test will begin about 30 minutes before liftoff, which you can watch here and on X @SpaceX. As is the case with all developmental testing, the schedule is dynamic and likely to change, so be sure to stay tuned to our X account for updates.
I have not yet received a notice from the FAA, announcing the approval of a launch license, but SpaceX’s announcement likely signals that the approval has been given. As I noted yesterday, this approval was likely given as close to the launch as possible to help preclude any legal action by the various leftist activist groups that want to stop Elon Musk, stop SpaceX, and stop any grand human achievement. Their dislike and alienation with success is so deep that such tactics are now necessary to stymie them and allow such achievements to proceed.
A youtube live stream will also be available here. If the flight succeeds in getting Starship into orbit, it will attempt to open and close its payload door, attempt a propellant transfer test, and then attempt the first in-space relight of a Raptor engine in order to bring it down controlled in the Indian Ocean.
A typical Martian slope streak.
On Mars there are two mysterious features that are somewhat similar but entirely unique to the Red Planet, and for years have baffled planetary geologists as to their origins.
One feature is called slope streaks, which appear randomly year-round as either dark or bright streaks on slopes. They resemble avalanches, except that they do not change the topography, have no debris piles at their base, and sometimes travel along that topography, sometimes even going uphill for short distances. Over time these streaks then fade.
The other feature is called recurring slope lineae, because though they look like slope streaks, they are not random but appear seasonally at the same places each year. Lineae are also always dark.
Scientists have proposed many theories to explain both, with most theories involving some form of water process, either the seepage of brine from below or water vapor causing the Martian surface dust to flow, like droplets on a car windshield. None of these theories has been confirmed, or entirely accepted.
Two studies at this week’s 55th annual Lunar and Planetary Science Conference in Texas have both concluded that water is not a factor in the formation of either phenomenon. Instead, both papers propose a much simpler explanation: Wind and blowing dust interact to cause small dust avalanches.
» Read more
At the 55th annual Lunar and Planetary Science Conference presently being held in Texas, the science team for the Lucy asteroid mission presented their first papers outlining what they learned during the spacecraft’s first asteroid encounter, flying past the main belt asteroid Dinkinesh on November 1, 2023.
To the right is the the best image taken at closest approach, at about 270 miles distance, annotated to include the analysis of Dinkinesh’s shape by scientists. As noted in the summary paper [pdf], the asteroid is about a half mile in diameter, and appears to have an equatorial ridge, similar to the ridges found on the near-Earth rubble-pile asteroids Bennu or Ryugu. Dinkinesh is not a rubble pile, however. Though boulder-strewn, it appears more solid, and even has what the scientists call a longitudinal trough, as indicated in the picture.
The ridge overlays the trough implying that it is the younger of the two structures. However, there is as yet no information to better constrain their relative ages, and thus they could potentially have formed in the same event. Indeed, Dinkinesh’s ridge and trough are likely the result of mass failure and the reaccretion of material, and may both be linked to the formation of Selam.
That flyby had produced one major surprise, the existence of a smaller satellite asteroid orbiting Dinkinesh, now dubbed Selam. It is shown in the lower left, as it appeared from behind the main asteroid as Lucy flew past. A later picture however revealed an even greater surprise.
» Read more
The floor of Shackleton Crater showing no obvious ice deposits,
as seen by Shadowcam. The black cross marks the south pole.
Click for original image.
This week the 55th annual Lunar and Planetary Science Conference is being held in Texas. The conference was originally established in connection with the Apollo missions to allow scientists to release their Moon research results. It quickly morphed into an annual event covering research from the entire planetary research community.
I have reviewed the abstracts for this year’s meeting, and culled what I think are the most significant new results from the conference, which I will report on in the next few posts.
We begin however with possibly the most important result from the conference, given by the science team for the ShadowCam instrument on South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter. That low-light camera was designed to take high resolution pictures of the permanently-shadowed craters of the Moon, to see if there was any visible or obvious ice hidden there. Though the science team presented a number of papers, the summary paper [pdf] by the instrument’s principal investigator, Mark Robinson of Arizona State University, gave the bottom line:
The data so far is finding very little evidence of water ice in these dark regions.
» Read more
The explosion yesterday of the new Japanese-built Kairos-1 solid-fueded rocket shortly after lift-off immediately raised questions whether the new rocket company that built it, Space One, could survive that failure.
This story from CNBC suggests it will, based mainly on the nature of its principal investors.
Space One was set up in 2018 by a consortium of Japanese companies including Canon Electronics, IHI Aerospace and construction firm Shimizu, along with the government-owned Development Bank of Japan. Mitsubishi UFJ and Mizuho Financial Group, two of Japan’s biggest banks, also own minority stakes in Space One.
The story is focused on the declines in the stock values of these companies, following the failure, with Canon’s stock falling the most, 12.7%.
My takeaways from the article however are different. First, these are not small investors. Space One is backed by some of Japan’s biggest corporations as well as indirectly by the Japanese government. One failure should not cause them to back out of the project.
Second, that the company was formed in 2018 by these Japanese heavy-hitters and only now was able to finally attempt a launch — that ended in failure — suggests Japan’s heavy-hitters continue to do things slowly and poorly. Not only have these big companies been working much too slow to build this relatively small rocket, Mitsubishi’s effort to build the much larger H3 rocket for Japan’s space agency JAXA has also been fraught with delays and problems, from engine cracks to launch failures. It appears Japan’s space industry is building things with the same lackadaisical attitude of America’s modern airline industry.
Third, that this “startup” was created by a team of old space large companies suggests Japan still doesn’t get the basics of capitalism. This new company isn’t creating any real competition. It was instead apparently formed to keep these heavy hitters in control of the Japanese launch market. This partnership reminds me of the many projects put together for decades by American consortiums of old space companies, such as Boeing teaming with Lockheed Martin to create ULA. All such partnerships were designed not to create new companies and new innovative products that would compete, but to maintain the control these old companies had on the industry.
Space One will likely fly again, but until we begin to see completely new companies from Japan, backed by independent new investors, this country is going to continue to lag behind everyone else.
The first launch attempt by the Japanese rocket startup Space One failed today, when its Kairos-1 rocket blew up mere seconds after launch.
The launch took place from the company’s own launchpad in the south of Japan. The live stream shows the rocket appear to lift off cleanly, moving upward out of frame. When the video then switches camera to a more distant view, the rocket fails to appear from behind a nearby hill. Instead, a white cloud explodes upward. Shortly thereafter the live stream switches back to the launchpad, where there is a fire and smoke. Fire hoses then begin working to put the fire out.
Space One is the first independent commercial rocket startup in Japan apparently not working with that country’s JAXA space agency. We will have to wait and see whether it can recover from this failure.
Click for original image.
Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on December 28, 2023 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).
The white dot on the overview map above marks the location, with the rectangle in the inset marking the area covered by the picture. The science team labels this “inverted features,” a more vague way to describe the feature geologists dub “inverted channels.” The flow of a river or glacier acts to harden and increase the density of the channel bed. Later, the water or ice disappears, leaving just the canyon.
Even later, erosion begins to wear away the surrounding terrain. Because the canyon floor is now harder than that surrounding terrain, that floor is more resistent to erosion, and eventually becomes ridge following the exact same path as the long gone river or glacier.
This is what we have here, with this inverted channel, which is about five miles long, once draining into the deeper eroded valley to the south.
The location is at 38 degrees north latitude and inside the 2,000-mile-long mid-latitude region I dub glacier country, because almost every image shows evidence of glaciers or ice flows on the surface. This picture however is a rare exception. The features in this picture instead appear to be bedrock, something that is rarely seen in the canyons and craters in glacier country. It is beyond my pay grade however to explain why this spot lacks such features. Or it could be the near surface ice here looks so much like bedrock I am misinterpreting the picture.
United Airlines: Run by bigoted clowns
As more proof that the United Airlines policies for hiring and promotion — focused solely on skin color, ethnicity, and sex more than talent, knowledge, and skills — is making flying on that airline downright dangerous, another United flight today had to make an emergency landing when immediately after take-off fluid began pouring from the plane.
Just 10 seconds after flight 830 from Sydney to San Francisco took the air, video by plane spotter New York Aviation got clear images of fluid spewing from the plane — it looks like it was coming from the rear right landing gear.
The crew of the Boeing 777-300 jet continued over the ocean for a while before turning around. Video from a passenger shows the crew dumping fuel before landing. The plane landed safely back at the airport in Sydney, with no injuries, but a lot of questions.
This was the fifth such incident of a United flight in just over a week, including four emergency landings and a failure after landing.
Though this was a Boeing jet, the fault here lies entirely with United, its pilots, and its maintenance department. Though pilots should be able to rely on their maintenance departments to keep the plane airworthy, they are also supposed to check their airplanes carefully before take-off. That neither the pilots of this plane or the maintenance staff detected anything before take-off suggests that no one is really doing their job right.
No matter. United is determined to make sure that half its employees are blacks or minorities or women, no matter how little those new hires know about maintaining an airplane. So what if planes fall from the sky and people die? United will have achieved diversity, equity, and inclusion!
Holden Armenta in face-paint and headdress,
on his way to the Superbowl. Click for video.
Bring a gun to a knife fight: The “news” outlet Deadspin, that slandered a 9-year-old football fan for no reason other than outright hate of America, is no more, its owner G/O Media selling it to another company that immediately shut it down.
In the past few months the struggles of G/O have been well publicized, from their being forced to shutter (and later sell the rights to) Jezebel to facing down a lawsuit from the family of a Kansas City Chiefs fan who was smeared as ‘racist’ for wearing what they called ‘blackface’ to a game by Deadspin.
Well, apparently Deadspin has proved to be more trouble than it’s worth to the suits at G/O, because today it was announced that they’d sold the property to European firm ‘Lineup Publishing’… who have no interest in retaining any of the current Deadspin staff.
Though it as yet not issued a launch permit, the FAA has now released an advisory to the public, listing the possible launch windows for the next Starship/Superheavy launch, beginning on March 14, 2024 and including windows on each day through March 18th.
The advisory lists a primary date of Thursday, March 14, with the time 12:00Z-14:13Z (7 a.m. to 9:13 a.m. central). The plan also includes backup dates for the following four days, with the window closing at 8:01 a.m. on Saturday and Sunday before increasing to 9:13 a.m. again on Monday.
It is very possible this advisory is premature. It does strongly suggest however that the FAA is about to issue the launch licence. Based on past actions, expect that license to be announced as close to the launch date as reasonably possible, in order to make difficult or impossible any legal action to stop it by the various independent activist groups that have been suing both SpaceX and the FAA. (While the FAA has clearly been ordered by higher-ups in the Biden administration to slow-walk SpaceX’s effort, its people generally want SpaceX to succeed.)
If the first launch attempt will be on March 14th, two days hence, that license licence must be issued soon.
As I have done each month since 2011, I am now posting an annotated version of NOAA’s monthly graph, tracking the solar sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun. The NOAA updated graph was posted at the start of March, covering activity through the end of February, so this report is a little later than normal.
That graph is below. In February sunspot activity remained essentially steady, only slightly higher than the activity from the month before. Those numbers also hovered at about the same level seen since August 2023.
» Read more
The Tucson-based rocket startup Phantom Space has successfully completed another investment capital funding round, bringing the total funding it has raised to $37 million.
Balerion Space Ventures led the round, which also included participation from the Reaser Family Office, KOLH Capital, and a handful of existing and new investors.
The company hopes to do its first test launch of its Daytona rocket next year, lifting off from Vandenberg. The article at the link says the launch permits from Vandenberg have been obtained, but as of about a month ago my sources said the company was still awaiting approvals from various agencies.
SpaceX’s Endurance manned capsule yesterday safely splashed down in the Gulf of Mexico, bringing home a crew of four astronauts from ISS after completing a six month mission.
NASA astronaut Jasmin Moghbeli, ESA (European Space Agency) astronaut Andreas Mogensen, JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) astronaut Satoshi Furukawa, and Roscosmos cosmonaut Konstantin Borisov, returned to Earth splashing down at 5:47 a.m. EDT. Teams aboard SpaceX recovery vessels retrieved the spacecraft and its crew. After returning to shore, the crew will fly to NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston.
…Moghbeli, Mogensen, Furukawa, and Borisov traveled 84,434,094 miles during their mission, spent 197 days aboard the space station, and completed 3,184 orbits around Earth. The Crew-7 mission was the first spaceflight for Moghbeli and Borisov. Mogensen has logged 209 days in space over his two flights, and Furukawa has logged 366 days in space over his two flights.
This was the third flight of Endurance. As always, it is important to note that though the passengers were government employees from the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Russia, the entire splashdown crew and capsule were private employees of SpaceX. This was a private mission, purchased by those governments.
Rocket Lab today successfully launched the fourth radar satellite for the commercial company Synspective, its Electron rocket lifting off from its spaceport in New Zealand.
On this flight Rocket Labt did not attempt to recover its first stage.
The leaders in the 2024 launch race:
24 SpaceX
10 China
3 Russia
3 Rocket Lab
American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 28 to 19. SpaceX by itself leads the rest of the world combined 24 to 23.
An evening pause: The video shows a long flight of a majestic Red-tailed Hawk, periodically being harassed by a small Red-Winged Blackbird, which even periodically hitches a ride on the hawk’s back. Appropriately, the mustic is Hitch a Ride, performed by Boston.
Hat tip Ferris Akel.
