A November wipe-out
This article suggests that the Republican victory in November is going to be far greater than any polls have indicated. Key quote:
Only about 160 of the Democrats’ 239 Congressional Districts are even remotely considered to be in play. But that playbook is badly out of date. The Republican message has raced far ahead of the GOP campaign and put a lot of new seats in play. We just have to work these districts to win them.
In fact, there are no polls to analyze in most of these 160 districts. Nobody considered them in play enough to poll them. We just don’t know how vulnerable these extra incumbents are. But, given the surprising vulnerability of the first eighty seats, we believe that a substantial number of these formerly invincible Congressmen can be ousted. [emphasis mine]
I strongly suspect that my home district, the 5th Congressional district of Maryland, is one of these 160 unknown districts. My congressman, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, is running against Republican Charles Lollar. For years this district has been considered safe for Steny. No more.
Lollar, a black conservative with Tea Party connections, has run an aggressive campaign, raised lots of money, and has been unafraid of taking the race into the hardcore Democratic areas near Washington. His signs are up everyone, only a week after clinching the nomination in the primary.
Come November 2, I think that the results from this district will be a stunning upset. I also think these results will only be one example among many others.
Full disclosure notice: In all my life, I had never given money to any political candidate. I considered such contributions a waste of my money. This year, however, I broke that string. Soon after the healthcare bill passed Congress (under Steny Hoyer’s leadership), I contributed $200 to Charles Lollar’s campaign. Not only do I believe this contribution will not be a waste of money, I think the fact that I did it is another indication that the results of this coming election will be very surprising.
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I’ve been hearing dem pollsters are worried. Even in areas where dem candidates poll as being more popular, far far fewer of their supporters have any enthusiasm about voting for them. Same thing cratered republicans in ’08 and ’09. It wasn’t that folks who voted republican before switch to voting dem, they just stayed home because they didn’t like either candidate enough to bother.
Right now even dem supporters are so frustrated and angry with the dems over the last 2 years, they really don’t like the dem candidates enough to vote for them, even if they dislike the republicans a bit more.
So calm pollsters, who’ve been at this a long time, are saying they could be grossly underestimating the republican win. This is being taken seriously enough, that dem party folks are transferring money into campaigning in “completely safe” districts.