The general “Normal” differences between deaths per year from what I have seen are within the tens of thousands, so if the deaths related to Covid are in fact as reported and not wacked up within the “normal” count then I would expect the differences to be in the hundreds of thousands and not in the tens of thousands.

I believe the true test of how this virus has in fact effected our country, and the world for that matter, since the death rate per year among our population is surprisingly generally consistent. It will be the actual numbers of people who actually die over and above that average generally consistent death per year number that will be the true evaluation about just how deadly Covid 19 actually is.

These death numbers I think we can reasonably agree to some great degree have been inflated for the numerous reasons that exist to do so. Which include: The active and ongoing presidential reelection of D.J. Trump which the media and powers that be need to cast in a negative manner, and the real capacity for hospitals and localities to inflate these deaths due to Covid numbers for financial reasons.

Time, like in most circumstances, will tell the truth about Covid 19. Not the MSM, not the “Experts” who consistently transmit false or contradictory and misleading information, not a politician on the floor of the Congress or the Senate, not on social media, not ANY report that comes through the now full Left leaning MSM.

We wait for actual truth.

You do not “Fight” the virus, you manage your way through how the virus expresses itself in its host. In this case the human host.

The virus cares not about what you think you are doing, it does not give a crap about you, me or anyone else.

So, keep washing your hands, don’t touch your nose or mouth, stay generally away from others, wear a mask in conditions where you suspect it is wise to do so, and keep those who are more susceptible to being pronounced dead if they contract it, the older and infirm among us safe as best as you can.

And in time the virus, without concern for your, my or anyone else’s thoughts on what it is or is not will burn itself out and or will be adapted to the human host by developing an immunity to it.

Yesterday’s death rate was 903. I’m sorry to say I was right. I hope that we can stop squabbling and fight the virus.

sippin_bourbon: I have thought of this recently. However, we first have to get the issues fixed that have been slowing the site for me (not you my readers). This will also include fixing the issues I have with the new visual theme installed this past weekend.

Once those are fixed, then I will see about getting the rules placed just above the comment box on every post.

May I recommend a copy of the rules posted just above the blank comment box, as a gentle reminder.
May save you time.

Your exchange jogged my memory.

WW2 mobilization in Canada in 1939: Military District 2 assembled troops at the Exhibition Grounds in Toronto, housing them in the stables used for livestock exhibitions. My father referred to the disease as the “Horse Palace Croup”.

jimbox: I have deleted the obscenity in your comment. You are new here I think so you might be unaware of the rules. Look at the box in the right column just above the last 15 comments. No obscenities. This is a warning. Do it again and you are banned for a week. Do it a third time and you are banned forever.

Good news: This thing will run it’s course by next spring, with or without a vaccine. Why? Because of science.

The left, however, will continue to look for covid, everywhere.

He says: “If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2”

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Saw the same when mobilizing troops. We called it the Mob station crud, normally took soldiers down for 4-5 days. Shots, big groups of people from multiple areas, and tight quarters in training.

To combat it, we normally scheduled the first week of training as all the admin/classroom training (paperwork, med records…..etc) which they could accomplish while being ill. The Troop Med clinics got used to being flooded in week 1 of our training cycle, and would send them back to duty with OTC meds. My father saw similar mobilizing for Korea, and my uncles saw the same in prep for shipping in WW2.

It never shut down the Army, you deal with it, mitigate through planning. and move on.

“Military recruits are at high risk of respiratory infections.1 The congregation of individuals from diverse geographic locations in semi-closed settings, together with high levels of close contact, provide conditions that favor the introduction and transmission of respiratory pathogens.2 Studies among military recruits have found high rates of illness and infection with respiratory viruses.”

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6159564/

My point is, any spike in Wuhan Flu should have been anticipated with schools reopening and should be taken into account when you see panicky stories about “a new peak”. Especially since the achool and college age populations are among the least threatened in terms of lethality. It will pass in just a few weeks with few serious effects.

This “epidemic appears to be winding down” is the sort of conclusion that is probably wrong. Yes, cases have declined. But why? The author would have us believe that some unnamed factor is causing it to go down.

The “lockdowns did no good” hypothesis is also weak. It is true that it is hard to separate the effect of government mandates from voluntary behavior, but the most people arguing about lockdowns don’t even seem to be aware of the high degree of voluntary mitigations measures taken without government orders, or even advice.

The idea that the high population density makes lockdowns or their equivalent is also extremely weak – other countries with high population densities than the NE states have had *much* better success with the virus than the US. They have controlled their peaks early or had no peak at all./

I tire of people reading too much into graphs, especially without adding reasoning as to the actual causes. Anyone can look at a graph and conjure up all sorts of explanations. But without reasoning about the “physics” behind the graph – i.e. the causes – it is no better than superstition. I’ve seen way too much of this.

As for the “physics”… epidemics die out only when either the chain of transmission is interrupted by mitigation measures or the number of susceptible hosts drops to where the growth rate is negative (i.e. Rt 40%). On cruise ships, over 80% have been infected.

So herd immunity doesn’t explain it.

Mutation of the virus doesn’t eitherr.

That leaves interruption of the transmission chain – and masks and social distancing (of which “lockdowns” are a very strong measure) are the likely cause.

Also, deaths are not a good metric. Because many of the most at risk individuals were in congregate care facilities, and it wasn’t well known how to protect them, of course we had a high death rate early on. Also, treatment protocols weren’t as good as they are now .

Search for “on the epidemiology of influenza”, Virology Journal, February 2008. Long read, worth your time.

Joe: I deleted your obscenity. Putting a single * in a word is not a sufficient action.

Read the rules just above the “Last 15 comments” box. No obscenities are allowed on Behind the Black. You are warned. Do it again I will ban you for a week. Do it a third time and I will very reluctantly ban you forever.

JWM

It boggles the mind how some people (almost all of them without proper medical degrees) still mistrust medical authorities, including and especially the politicians putting policies in place to achieve SMPH. Don’t they understand that SMPH is far, far more dear than the so-called “rights” they keep blathering on about? Far better to trust the authority’s message (whatever it happens to be this week) and demand strict state-enforced punishments for people threatening SMPH, most especially for people holding non-medical degrees who dare opine on the biggest subject of the moment. After all, it’s more like Polio than a bad Flu.

*While sporadic polio outbreaks predate history, I’ll say 1916’s major American outbreaks qualify as the historical equivalent to our own troubles. The polio vaccine was first available to the public in 1955.

you say, “eventually millions, of Americans will survive covid with some degree of permanent injury or chronic, recurring symptoms”

you also say, “it’s becoming increasingly apparent that covid is capable of permanent injury and chronic illness in a small percentage of patients.”

Seems a contradiction.

you say: “Mortality rates were high because it was assumed that patients had pneumonia or flu. Because covid is far more lethal, treating it as a less serious disease caused more patients to die.”

The times of the highest mortality rates are clearly well after testing and wide spread communication of the disease was present. The highest rates were then end of April, beginning of May. At that point covid was on the radar big time. Lock downs had been ordered the previous month to ensure ICU beds were open for COVID patients. Makes no sense that hospitals would be preparing for covid patients the MONTH before….and then treating them as flu or pneumonia the month after. I know the facility I work at was not doing that in this time frame.

you said, “3) If you’re going to make claims about herd immunity, back it up with some authority other than your own misreading of a few charts that say nothing of herd immunity.”

Agreed. He should have used Sweden’s charts to SUPPORT his point.

you say, “4) Counterpoint: NY and NJ lockdowns flattened their death curves, and high compliance with mask mandates contribute to the slowed spread.”

Or maybe the numbers flattened in NY when they stopped sending elderly patients to convalescent homes?

“5) If lockdowns caused summer spikes, why were nearly all the worst summer spikes in states with the weakest, shortest lockdowns and earliest, fastest reopenings?”

Most, if not all of those states where in the South. What do you think of South Dakota’s performance?

you say: “You are advocating mass euthanasia of senior citizens. It makes me long for the days when even fake “death panels” were beyond the pale.”

How so? Why quarantine the healthy? Why not quarantine the vulnerable? Seems reasonable to me and probably most people.

you say: “Does your liberal arts degree qualify you to opine on any of this? Particularly when you are recommending that readers casually risk their health and safety?”

Well, governor’s with no formal applicable degrees or experience are making the calls in their states. And don’t say “oh but they are following the science”…b/c THAT is not TRUE. They are follow the sources that align with their POLITICAL beliefs. As are the GOP governors…..

It’s metabolic syndrome. Considering that you can reverse many metabolic syndromes with just a few months of a high fat, high protein, low carb diet, I have to wonder why Gov’t and health authorities do not mention this at all but instead tell people just stay inside – this is especially concerning given the main transmission vector is intrafamilial.

Thanks

A few obvious points that readers should consider.

1) Mortality rates decline as public awareness and medical preparedness rise. To the surprise of literally no one, more patients survive when patients seek care earlier and doctors have some experience treating it.

Mortality rates are declining across the globe – irregardless of intervention technique or duration – at essentially the same rate. Clearly, this is independent of when a patient goes for treatment,. Given the media and Gov’t hysterics, I am certain no one is waiting to go for treatment. Further treatment modalities have been established for months.

2) Mortality rates were high because it was assumed that patients had pneumonia or flu. Because covid is far more lethal, treating it as a less serious disease caused more patients to die.

Rubbish. The spikes in death all occur well after the pandemic was realized.

3) If you’re going to make claims about herd immunity, back it up with some authority other than your own misreading of a few charts that say nothing of herd immunity.

Herd immunity follows the same sequence for every virus on the planet. This is established by many metrics, RO being a leading indicator. The RO of covid was established months ago. The argument now is what impact T-Cell immunity has on covid, some studies showing a HI as low as 25%.

4) Counterpoint: NY and NJ lockdowns flattened their death curves, and high compliance with mask mandates contribute to the slowed spread.

NY flattened it’s curve by no longer sending the infected into LTC’s. Both NYC and NJ have been proven to be cooking the numbers. There is verifiable connection between masks and lockdowns.. the data is staring you in the face.

5) If lockdowns caused summer spikes, why were nearly all the worst summer spikes in states with the weakest, shortest lockdowns and earliest, fastest reopenings?

Data supporting this? Spikes coincided with geography and seasonal climate, but the actual infection and death rates are nearly identical.

6) You are advocating mass euthanasia of senior citizens. It makes me long for the days when even fake “death panels” were beyond the pale.

Childish.

7) You focus entirely on mortality, arbitrarily stipulating that survival equates to negligible illness in low-risk groups. Hundreds of thousands, eventually millions, of Americans will survive covid with some degree of permanent injury or chronic, recurring symptoms. The virus’ interference with the endocrine signaling is capable of triggering self-perpetuating feedback loops. That signaling disruption is how covid indirectly causes symptoms ranging from flaky skin to neurological damage to renal failure. Chronic fatigue reported by long-haulers may in fact be thyroid damage or decreased hormonal sensitivity.

The disease itself is not a joke. Polio only crippled a tiny percentage of victims, and nearly all recovered like it was the flu. Covid is more like polio than the flu, if only because it’s becoming increasingly apparent that covid is capable of permanent injury and chronic illness in a small percentage of patients.

Nonsense. Another meme whipped up by the MSM. All ‘source data’ is anecdotal and unsubtantiated. The overwhelming majority are asymptomatic and show no longterm effects.

8) Does your liberal arts degree qualify you to opine on any of this? Particularly when you are recommending that readers casually risk their health and safety?

Fear porn merchant…

Watch how all of those scary looking curves turn into a straight line, indistinguishable from zero.

The WuFlu has become like the Ring to Rule Them All. Few in power who pick it up can let it fall from their grasp. This for me has been a reaffirmation of how wise the Founders were with respect to government power and human nature. Above all we must be very jealous indeed of our liberty, for look at how many professionals find it so easy to destroy it, all in the name of keeping us safe.

Making “herd immunity” at 33% level via Lymphocystes, despite so few of a population testing as having anti-bodies to Wuhan Covid.

From Nature July” As data start to accumulate on the detection and characterization of SARS-CoV-2 T cell responses in humans, a surprising finding has been reported: lymphocytes from 20–50% of unexposed donors display significant reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 antigen peptide pools1,2,3,4.

In a study by Grifoni et al.1, reactivity was detected in 50% of donor blood samples obtained in the USA between 2015 and 2018, before SARS-CoV-2 appeared in the human population. T cell reactivity was highest against proteins other than the coronavirus spike protein, but T cell reactivity was also detected against (cornoa) spike. “