Sunspot update: Are we now in the next solar maximum?
Time for my monthly update on the Sun’s sunspot activity has it proceeds through its eleven-year sunspot cycle. NOAA has released its update of its monthly graph showing the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere, and I have posted it below, annotated with further details to provide a larger context.
In December sunspot activity increased slightly for the second month in a row, but only by a little bit. The number of sunspots for the month was still significantly below the highs seen in the summer, and continue to suggest that the Sun has already entered solar maximum (two years early), and like the previous two solar maximums in 2001 and 2013, will be double peaked.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
Though it remains too early even now to trust any predictions, the Sun will have to increase its sunspot activity quickly and significantly in the coming months, recovering quickly from the drop the past few months, to avoid a double-peaked maximum.
More important, if we are in maximum now, its strength is definitely not what the entire solar science community predicted. The red curve is the prediction of a panel of NOAA scientists, and it predicted the maximum would occur in 2025 with a monthly sunspot high of 115. The high counts that occurred in the summer of 2023 were about 160, 40% higher. Under any statistical system that error margin means that NOAA prediction was the equivalent of throwing a dart at a wall, blindly.
A dissenting group of scientists in turn had predicted a high in 2025 of 233. If we are already in a double-peaked maximum, this prediction is just as wrong, 31% higher than the real peak, which also indicates the prediction was a guess.
Obviously it is still early. The Sun could still be ramping up to a big solar maximum, but even this second group of dissenting solar scientists have admitted it is unlikely it will match their first prediction, stating in April 2023 they expected the high now to be 185. Bully for them. A shoeshine boy in Grand Central Station could have made that prediction, now that we are in maximum.
The scientists are guessing because they really do not understand the fundamental reasons why the Sun undergoes this solar cycle, related to the ebb and flow of its magnetic field. We know it happens, but we don’t know why. Nor do we know why it changes from cycle to cycle, and even undergoes long periods of low activity, called grand minimums, lasting as long as a hundred years.
The significance of this fundamental ignorance relates directly to the Earth’s climate. There is a great deal of climate data that suggests an active Sun causes the climate to warm, while an inactive Sun results in a major cooling. For example, during the last grand minimum in the 1600s, the Earth experienced what scientists call the Little Ice age, with some years having no summers resulting in crop failures and famines.
Knowing why the Sun’s sunspot activity changes will help us better predict any changes in the Earth’s climate. Right now all climate models fail to include the Sun properly in their calculations, essentially because none of them understand that specific component. Until they do, every climate model prediction is suspect.
In other words, in every way you can imagine, the science is not settled.
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I wish NOAA would report the data before 1750 which show the Maunder minimum.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot#/media/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png
While the earlier data is spotty, it clearly shows a significant low in solar activity.
The next 6 months will show if there will be a double peak to this maximum. However, the double could be spread further than 6 months.
The existence of a double maximum, truly suggests there may be multiple cycles which overlay. There certainly seems about a hundred year cycle from the historical data.
Without a deeper knowledge of the underlying principle leading to the cycles, everything is, indeed as Bob has said, purely guess work.
The problem with predictions is that they’re hard, so which is why the science works on postdictions.
I am surprised the chart didn’t show Cycles 17 through 23, with all but one cycle (Cycle 20) being very active solar cycles. Cycle 24 was a relatively quiet and below average cycle, so the chart above is misleading since it shows Cycle 24 without context.
Since accurate sunspot cycle prediction is proving difficult wouldn’t it be more useful to know more about how solar activity affects the weather. If affects on the weather probably lag the sunspots general predictions might be possible, and useful to us Earthlings. The United States are having a mild winter so far. Is it the sunspots?
I am amused by the shoeshine boy reference. Don’t underestimate the information from shoeshine boys. Aren’t they known for getting the inside scoop from their clients?
Fortunately, the SUN has little effect on our planet – only farting cows affect and ICE vehicles do that – oh, and those nasty gas stoves and furnaces! Oh, and NOW, it seems that just us heathens BREATHING is an issue!! So many issues to ponder – guess that old saying “There’s nothing new under the SUN” is outdated!!
“The problem with predictions is that they’re hard, so which is why the science works on postdictions.”
But real science is the process of postulating theorems that actually prove out through the validation of predictions. If your theory can’t produce an observable confirmation of your prediction, you have not established a scientific principle.
“Postdiction” is simply the process of gathering data to facilitate formulation of a theory; but it is ONLY a theory until proven by a validated prediction.
Obviously, these different levels of sunspot activity on the sun are in response to different levels of activity here on Earth, in terms of internal combustion auto and truck engines, gas-powered stoves and leaf blowers, and whatever other fantasies the climate cultists throw at us normies.
Today spaceweather.com had an interesting post.
https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=202960
I like it, Phill. A real photo-accumulation of the spots on an annual basis is the best way I can describe it. very revealing.
Please look into the work of Valentina Zharchova, like here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYOMKLDbeYE
Erwin: I watched it only because you said please. It wasn’t easy but I learned some stuff. The Earth rotating the sun around the gravitational center and solar inertia was interesting (add in all the planets and what a mess). And why sunspots are in pairs and the long and short solar cycles are based on the electromagnetic radiation frequency and beats. She believes CO2 is negligable compared to these other forces.
Her prediction… A long colder period to begin imminently, within a few years. Thanks. I’ll stock up on wood and I need a new snow blower.