I suppose if I were to publish with a friend of mine, it would give me an Erdos number of 3. Maybe I should look into that just for the bragging rights. His area of specialty isn’t something I know much about though.

Erdos Numbers: A mathematical example of ‘small world’ networks –
John Barrow Gresham College 2010
https://youtu.be/F5ZsM5OijYs
4:36

https://wwwbis.sidc.be/silso/home

I’ve been looking at historical weather station data (NOAA Global Summary of Day for various rural stations, Farmers Almanac, etc): Notice a very rough periodic set of “cold years” among broader “hot years”, and would like to make an overlay at some point.

Am I a heliophysicist now?

As with Dec( there were at least 2 days), there are no sunspots. This may be rare during this time of ramp-up.

Everything indicates the predicted curve needed to be somewhat earlier.

Steve Richter: Yes. Since 1978 satellites have measured the Sun’s total flux across most wavelengths, though that data is not complete. The data shows that in optical the sun varies by 0.01% (I think from memory) across the sunspot cycle, while other wavelength vary more, such as UV which varies by as much as 50%.

The data however is incomplete, and covers a woefully short span.

If that makes my post above any the less incomprehensible.
Then I might add that we have the pointy-haired boss of Dilbert!

Those plotted predicting curves have no relation to physics, that I know of. They are purely statistical. They are derived from previously recorded data. They differ only because of how many previous waves they use to extrapolate the trend. Who knows? One popular theory is that the Sun has no theory beyond the obvious 11 years. Its internal noise erases any long term cycles. And let’s hope that is true, (which there are good reasons to do), because if the Sun has periods of a million bad years now and then, that’s no good for us here. Let’s hope it’s just two slightly out of syn cycles interfering each others that cause the variations in Solar cycles.

And more seriously this as an argument for double tops going out of sync as a general phenomenon. As on wigs in the Royal Court of Versailles in the 18th century:
https://lestresorsdeversailles.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/perruque-xviiic3a8me.png

But I have gambled a prediction, so lets see next decade how wrong or right my gamble happened to turn out! (Not that it explains anything either way, but a bet is a bet).

What bout the time required for magnetic fields to propagate? I do not remember that part of physics.

LocalFluff: You know of course that you are doing exactly what the solar scientists do, which makes your prediction as reliable as all of theirs.

So that would predict an early high, a half dip, then 3 years later another high, then this cycle goes down to its 11 years bottom. And the maximum of this cycle would be lower than the last one’s. That’s just my visual impression of recent Solar cycle graphs, anyway. I have no idea in terms of physics that could cause that! The Sun is spherical and rings like a bell. And it is being tolled by two factors that are falling out of sync with each other.