Comments on: Sunspot update: The Sun keeps its boom going

By: Bill Buhler

Bill Buhler — Wed, 03 Jul 2024 12:23:52 +0000

@pzachoke As an amateur radio operator I can confirm this solar cycle has helped ionospheric skip based communications a lot. But, there are a few changes to the overall environment that have made it harder to tell.

First, all of the low voltage digital electronics create noise, not a lot individually, but combined the noise in cities and suburbs is often -85dBm, while a lot of smaller stations are come in below that level of noise, so they can’t be heard.

Second, many of the commercial and national SW broadcasters have closed shop because it’s easier and cheaper to stream over the Internet.

Such is progress, and, while I wish all of the electronic devices had better shielding and filtering to reduce the noise, I prefer to live in this age of high efficiency led lights and easy computing, so we will just have to learn to adjust.

By: pzatchok

pzatchok — Tue, 02 Jul 2024 19:24:41 +0000

I wonder if this sunspot activity will effect the ionosphere and shortwave radio propagation.

Its been a little hard to find some distant transmitters over the last dozen years.

By: BLSinSC

BLSinSC — Tue, 02 Jul 2024 14:10:42 +0000

Of COURSE the climate crazies will POUNCE on this and CLAIM that the SUN has NO BEARING on Our Earth’s warming or cooling! They even try to convince people that the HISTORICALLY BIBLICAL amounts of SNOW – DURING THE WINTER – is caused by “globull worming”!! If you don’t believe the SUN affects our temps then go outside – stand in some shade – then step INTO the direct SUNLIGHT! If you’re anyone other than a brainless idiot you will NOTICE a DIFFERENCE! Oddly enough, this works during the WINTER as well!

By: gbaikie

gbaikie — Tue, 02 Jul 2024 05:52:34 +0000

Made mistake, I said: “the Jan 2024 monthly number is halved”.
Wrong, it’s June 2023 number is halved.
And last smoothed monthly [129.4 and at Dec 2023}, had May 2023 monthly number halved.
Or next month, May 2023, won’t included in averaging. Or full value of June and July of 2023 was included, and next month, June will be a halved.
Or those two high spot number months last summer, have been and will continue to be adding to averaged value of blue line.

Or there a lot monthly spot numbers below the blue, and next couple month “need” to be high {like it has been in last couple months- or blue doesn’t continue to go up.
Which could make that redline as fairly good guess- other than, cycle 25 jumped up faster than their guess.
Or fat lady hasn’t sang, yet.
But we could get some +200 months in next several months and then, maybe she has sung.

By: gbaikie

gbaikie — Tue, 02 Jul 2024 05:08:20 +0000

I think the red line, predicted value, is the smoothed monthly values, which is averaged over 12 months of monthly sunspot numbers:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
So it’s roughly back 1/2 year and the number is now 129.4 and at Dec 2023.
Though cycle 25 rose quicker than it was guessed it would.
Or Jan 2024 is calculated once the month of July is finished has it’s totaled number of the month.
It’s bit more complicate, the Jan 2024 monthly number is halved and when get July it’s number will be halved and months between are not halved. And this averaged and that determines value for Jan 2024 called, “smoothed monthly values”
So I think redline trying to guess that, rather than each month number, which can up a lot and go down a lot.