The first two rockets in the wave

Though there have been a number of stories in the press recently lamenting the present inability of the rocket industry in the capitalist west to meet the exploding demand of getting new payloads of all types into orbit, the reality is that this shortage of rockets is only a very temporary phenomenon, and that in only a year or so we shall see the arrival of so many new rockets that the press will start to whine about a glut of launch capacity.

In fact, this wave of new rockets has already begun, with successful orbital launches by two startups in just the last seven weeks, as shown on the right. The Indian startup Skyroot successfully launched its Vikram-1 rocket on July 18th, while the German startup Isar Aerospace completed the first launch of its Spectrum rocket on September 5th.

But these two companies are only the start. While it remains true that the only western companies right now capable of launching reliably and frequently are SpaceX and Rocket Lab, the launch industry (outside of Russia and China) is on the verge of a revolution unmatched by anything seen since the first orbital rocket was launched in 1957.

The already established rockets

The leading operational rockets

First there are the rockets — government and commercial — that already exist and have established a track record of some kind. SpaceX of course leads the way. Its ability to launch its Falcon 9 almost daily, with its Falcon Heavy rocket for larger payloads, has allowed it to dominate the entire global industry for the past three years.

Rocket Lab follows with its Electron rocket. Of all the established rocket companies, it is the only one other than SpaceX that has a reliable rocket that can launch at a pace more than once a month. At present it is averaging about two launches per month.

The rest of the rockets in the capitalist world have generally done poorly in their effort to compete, but they do provide options. First the government rockets: Arianespace’s Ariane-6 rocket is operational and launching about once every two months, with hopes of doubling that launch pace next year. Japan’s H3 rocket, built by Mitsubishi, is operational though it can only launch a few times per year and is very expensive. India’s ISRO space agency has its SSLV, PSLV, and various iterations of its GLSV rockets, though the PSLV has been grounded due to technical issues and ISRO has been slow to launch the others out of what appears to be some fear of failure.

Next come the established commercial launch vehicles: Both ULA and Blue Origin have new operational rockets — Vulcan and New Glenn respectively — but both are presently grounded due to technical failures. Both however should resume launches by early next year, and should be able to launch monthly before the end of 2027. Blue Origin especially has the opportunity to challenge SpaceX, as its New Glenn rocket is reusable, with a greater capacity than the Falcon 9.

Italy’s Avio meanwhile has its operational Vega-C rocket. It has been aggressively courting both European and American business, but because it is smaller and expendable and somewhat expensive, it cannot come close to matching SpaceX in customer demand or launch rate. And it appears satellite customers so far prefer Rocket Lab’s Electron, though this could change.

As noted, except for SpaceX and Rocket Lab, the other established rockets have generally done a poor job of meeting the needs of the industry. They tend to launch infrequently, cost too much, and have done a poor job eliminating technical problems that cause failures. But they exist, and there are good reasons to hope they will do better, especially because the demand is so high and the opportunity for profits is so great.

The new rockets

The next wave of rockets

The next wave of rockets continued

The next wave continued

What makes the situation more hopeful is the flood of new rockets on the verge of taking off. I have already described the successes of Skyroot and Isar. They are just the beginning. Two other European rocket companies are also close to launch. The German startup Rocket Factory Augsburg has its RFA1 rocket at its launch site at the Saxavord spaceport in the United Kingdom, and hoped to launch in July, only to cancel due to technical issues. It is not known when it will try again, but it is likely that this company’s first launch attempt will happen in the near future.

Meanwhile the Spanish startup PLD is in the process of shipping its Miura-5 rocket to French Guiana for a launch before the end of the year. The updates from this company have been very detailed and impressive, suggesting it will succeed on its first try and be capable of following up quickly with more launches.

In the U.S. at least five companies are expected to introduce new or upgraded rockets by next year. Rocket Lab hopes to launch its reusable Neutron rocket before the end of 2026, while Relativity hopes to do the same with its Terran-R rocket. Both could slip to early 2027, but both appear to be making good progress. Both also have ample cash on hand. Both already have launch contracts for these new rockets.

Meanwhile, the startup Stoke Space — flush with more than $2 billion in investment capital — expects to begin launches of its own reusable Nova Pathfinder rocket in 2027 and 2028, followed in 2029 by its larger Nova-2 rocket.

Then there are upgraded and new rockets from Northrop Grumman and Firefly. The former has its Antares-330 rocket, but this is presently under development as it awaits a new first stage being built by Firefly. Similarly, Firefly has upgraded its Alpha rocket, with the first launch of Alpha-2 expected by the end of this year. The company is also building its larger Eclipse rocket, which will use the same first stage configuration that Firefly is providing Northrop Grumman. Eclipse is targeting a 2027 launch date.

Finally in Australia the startup Gilmour Space in 2025 tried and failed to launch its Eris rocket, from its own spaceport. It has raised almost $300 million (Australian) in private capital, and has said it will try another launch attempt this year.

That is a list of the most likely launches coming in the near future. Other rockets however are in the works. In Europe the startup Maiaspace — wholly owned by the established rocket company ArianeGroup — now expects to launch its Maia rocket in the second half of 2027. In India a second startup, Agnikul, has raised $500 million in private capital and is developing its own reusable Agnibaan orbital rocket. It has announced no launch dates, but it has completed one suborbital test launch. In South Korea the startup Innospace tried and failed on its first orbital launch attempt in December 2025. It has made deals to launch at several different spaceports, and has gotten several launch contracts from satellite companies. No new launch date however has been announced. In Japan the startup Space One has tried three times to get its Kairos rocket into orbit — from its own spaceport — but failed each time. It is not clear where its future presently stands, though it has obtained significant investment capital from a number of major Japanese companies and banks.

Those are all the startups that are most advanced and have actually cut metal. There are others, but until they begin testing real hardware, as these companies have, they cannot be taken that seriously. The fact however that so many such rocket startups exist, have raised significant capital, and are on the verge of launch, tells us that this new industry is about to burst out aggressively.

Conclusion

To really comprehend this coming launch wave, I think a quick short-form review is in order. I recognize that the schedule below carries a lot of uncertainty, but I also think the weight of numbers strongly says much of it will take place relatively close to when promised.

The rockets currently operational:

• SpaceX’s Falcon 9
• SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy
• Rocket Lab’s Electron
• Arianespace’s Ariane-6
• Avio’s Vega-C
• Japan’s H3
• ISRO’s SSLV
• ISRO’s GSLV variations
• Skyroot’s Vikram-1
• Isar Aerospace’s Spectrum

Furthermore, expect the first operational flights of Starship/Superheavy before the end of the year. The ship and booster won’t yet be in their final iteration, but SpaceX plans to use this year’s test launches to place Starlink Version 3 satellites into orbit. And there is no reason the company won’t begin to sell payload space to others.

Before April 2027 we will likely see these rockets return to operation:

• Blue Origin’s New Glenn
• ULA’s Vulcan
• ISRO’s PSLV

Before April 2027 we will likely also see the following companies complete first launches of new rockets:

• Rocket Lab’s Neutron
• Relativity’s Terran-R
• Firefly’s Alpha-2
• Stoke Space’s Nova Pathfinder
• PLD’s Miura-5
• Rocket Factory Augsburg’s RFA1
• Gilmour’s Eris

And before December 2027 the following new or upgraded rockets should begin flying:

• Firefly’s Eclipse
• Northrop Grumman’s Antares-330
• Maiaspace’s Maia

That’s fourteen operational rockets by early 2027 (six of which are American), with another ten attempting to become operational by the end of 2027 (six of which are American). That’s a lot of rockets in the pipeline, even if many of them are small, or are only beginning operation and likely face failures, or are not quite ready for a fast launch cadence. All told, these rockets lay a strong foundation for the kind of launch industry required by the emerging payload industry.

And that foundation is strengthened by the vast and quickly growing investment capital being committed to these companies because of the rising demand to serve that burgeoning orbital industry, which now includes huge constellations of communications, imaging, radar, GPS-type, and data-center satellites, recoverable capsules, manned space stations, satellite repair and de-orbit robots, military satellites, and any number of other new projects that can now make money because the cost to orbit has plummeted and continues to drop.

In fact, this summary strongly suggests that by 2030 the prediction by the Trump administration that there will be 1,000 launches per year is not only quite right, it might even be conservative.

SpaceX’s vision of a city on Mars. Click for source.

One final point: The demand for launch capacity for the next decade appears so strong that at this moment it appears even if all these rockets begin launching frequently they will still be insufficient to meet it. Their numbers, and competition between them, is likely going to force the current launch price to continue to fall, which in turn will only make it possible for more orbital payload companies to enter the market.

Thus, the demand will continue to grow, which in turn will fuel more rocket startups and more capable rockets, which in turn will further lower the launch price which in turn will fuel more demand. It is my expectation that there is no end in sight for this cycle, and that we are now on the cusp of a new space age, one in which the human race will truly begin exploring, colonizing, and settling the solar system.

Ad Astra! If we don’t bankrupt ourselves or vote in tyrants, it appears we finally have the chance to conquer the stars.