https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jm3AqnL2rQ

When your enemy is willing to leave an area you threaten to surround let them leave in good order. They will do it more often later when they trust you will let them.

Treat any prisoners well so your enemy will be more disposed to becoming prisoners.

It takes 4 to 6 times as many units to surround a single enemy unit. Who is keeping who in place and occupied.

And what is Russia doing?
Breaking all the rules thinking they are winning and making friends.

(1) On Ukrainian losses. While I have little doubt the Ukrainian losses are higher than the government claims, there is no way they are close to Russian losses. The Russians have been using really inferior tactics which result in significant losses, and the 15,000-20000 range of Russian casualties would be expected. On the Ukrainian side, they are more dug in, using hit and run tactics, and sound tactical planning. I’m going to guess its somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000.

(2) On Mariupol. Russian supporters have lamented the refusal to surrender by the city’s last defenders. That’s never going to happen. Avostal has lots of supplies, and they will keep fighting. They remember what happened in 2014, when the UAF and Russians agreed to a ceasefire, only to have the Russian’s massacre the withdrawing UAF soldiers. They are going to fight to the death rather than surrender. Its Ukraine’s alamo. Not only that, but strategically its important to continue to hold out. Russia had about 12 BTGs in Mariupol. They’ve shifted 5-6 north to the Poposna axis since surrounding Avostal, but there are still 6-7 BTGs in Mariupol trying to keep the defenders bottled up. That’s 6-7 BTGs that are being kept from being re-deployed.

(3) On Ukrainian artillery capability. Ukraine had, at the outset, a rather large stockpile of soviet era artillery ammunition. Due to use, that stockpile has been reduced to very little. NATO members have been scouring the world trying to buy up whatever is out there. This is why the US, French and other NATO artillery contributions have been critical.. Once the switch is made, NATO standard 155mm artillery rounds are plentiful and Ukraine will be using it extensively again.

(4) On Air Superiority. Russia’s airforce has largely been a non-factor. With the exception of Mariupol and stand off missiles launched from the black sea, Russian or Belarussian airspace, Russia hasn’t been using air assets over Ukraine. Ukraine’s air defences have been pretty robust. Russia has lost 25 combat aircraft. Ukraine still has some fighter jets to scramble in defence. The Russian air force is largely afraid to operate over Ukraine. On the other side of the equation, Ukrainian helicopters have attacked locations in Russia, UkAF Su-27’s did substantial damage to Russian positions on Snake Island just a couple of days ago, and Bayrakter drones are destroying many Russian vehicles every day.

(5) On this statement: “However, with the fall of Popasna the Russians are very close to having a large segment of the Ukrainian forces in Donbas surrounded”. Umm.. have you looked at the map? If you’re referring to encirclement by linking the Popasna with those around Yampil. We’re talking a distance of 43 kilometers. To take Popasna they had to take a total of 10km. Since the Russians started the pivot to the Donbass, they’ve only managed to take about 15 km in the Yampil axis, 10 km in the Popasna axis and 20km on the Izium axis. They are not moving fast, and they are taking a lot of casualties. And it also ignores that repeatedly in this war the Ukrainians have escaped encirclement before it closed, the only exception being Mariupol.

Even a few ammo companies in the US have promised a few million rounds of 7,62×39. Ak-47 ammo.
In the long run they will have to switch out guns to go to a more available ammo but even that problem is being taken care of.

As for the supplied missiles being defective.
Its not as bad as some have said. Germany dropped the ball on maintenance and storage. The Ukraine just had to switch out batteries and clean up the missiles and launchers. They worked just fine after. The US sent ones were fine.

As for the mobile artillery we sent. Sorry but it is not fragile and prone to breakdowns. Its not Russian armor. Its American NATO equipment and works. Its been proven and tested for years.

Why can’t the Russians at least take out the Neptune anti ship missiles being used against them? Or at least keep the Ukraine off the coast.
And why can’t the ships defend against such basic home grown weapons?
And why can’t Russian sailors put out simple fires on ships?

( I already know why)

Realist/Questioner: You are breaking my second rule on this website: No insults. We disagree about the fog of war in the Ukraine. No call for you to call me and everyone else who disagrees with you of being “brainwashed” and deniers of reality. It also only weakens your argument. If all you can do is insult your opponents suggests you don’t have any facts to back you.

I think you need a time-out. Come back in a week, after your suspension ends.

https://t.me/intelslava/28263?single

Biglar: I recognize the ISW’s over-reliance on Ukrainian sources. However, the true test of an information source is its track record. ISW’s analysis and predictions have, almost two months after the start of the war, been consistently on the money.

The one battle in which their predictions have been wrong has been in Mariupol, where ISW has for the past month repeatedly predicted the city would fall entirely to Russia within days. This has not happened. Though the Russians will eventually complete its takeover, the cost has been much higher and the time expended longer than ISW expected.

In other words, though ISW is generally favorable to the Ukraine’s military position (which has generally turned out to be correct), the one time ISW has been favorable to the Russians it has been wrong.

All in all, these facts make ISW’s conclusions quite trustworthy, though like any source one must always take everything with some doubt.

The UAF advance east from Kharkiv should have the Russians worried, however. With Western artillery having a range of between 26 and 32 miles, their positions put Vovchansk and the main road routes into Kupyansk, where the largest logistical hub of the northern element of the russian army is based. UAF are also currently advancing towards Chkalovske. If they can take back that town all of Kupyansk will be in range of the new artillery. The forces based near Izium, and supported from the logistical hub at Kupyansk, comprises 22 BTG’s, or somewhere between 7000 and 20 000 men (I’m guessing its about 10-11 thousand given prior losses). It is by far their biggest group. The other axis of attack have no more than 14 BTGs.

The other development is Snake Island. Russia claims the UAF had ineffective attacks, and that attempts to take back the island suffered significant losses. There is no evidence to support this. To the contrary, we have drone footage of UAF drones attacking air defence positions several days ago with success, followed by a Russian attempt to reinforce the air defences with a new TOR SAM system on a landing boat. That attempt was attacked by drones and the landing boat was sunk with the SAM system destroyed. A subsequent attempt to land Russian reinforcements by helicopter was also attacked by drones, with the helicopter destroyed and likely all on board perishing. Some of the infantry dismounted from the helicopter may have survived, but would likely have been seriously wounded. An air attack by UAF SU-27’s resulted in several large explosions of buildings on the island. Snake Island has become more strategically significant after the sinking of the Moskva. If the UAF can secure the island and station anti-ship missiles on the island, with a range of more than 160 km they can basically keep the black sea out of the area as long as they hold the island. This could prevent an amphibious assault on Odessa (which honestly isn’t much of a threat, because they cannot logistically support such an assault), and it could force the Black Sea Fleet away from the coast, and potentially threaten ships in their main port at Sevastopol.

So, the upshot is the Russians are taking heavy losses, the Ukrainians are obviously taking losses as well, though likely less as they are defending well prepared and dug in positions. Russia has gained very little ground. Ukraine has gained more, specifically around Kharkiv. They may soon be able to threaten Russian logistical routes supporting Izium. If they can do so, Russia will either have to dilute their efforts on that Axis by trying to retake the ground lost to Ukraine, or potentially suffer the same sort of problems they did around Kiev.

However, there are a few things we do know: 1. Russia has almost complete air superiority, though Ukraine does still appear to have somewhat effective air defenses; 2. Ukraine seems to have limited remaining indirect fire capabilities, and appears to have almost completely lost its counter-battery capability. 3. Ukrainian armor seems to have mostly disappeared from the battlefront, whether through attrition or strategic withdrawal, with Ukrainian forces mostly consisting of infantry armed with (very effective) anti-tank weapons and in many cases driving civilian vehicles or dug into existing fortifications such as trenches.

Because of these conditions, the Russians appear to prefer using stand-off weapons such as artillery, surface to surface missiles, limited air power, and main tank guns to engage opposing forces outside the range of the infantry to limit their casualties going forward. This allows the Russians to make fairly quick work of Ukrainians in the countryside, which has forced the Ukrainian to focus their defenses in the cities and villages.

Ultimately, it appears the Russians will likely prevail due to superior logistics. There are a lot of reports of ammunition and supply shortages on the Ukrainian side and American resupply efforts are likely being wasted through Russian interception, transport delays, a skills gap among Ukrainian conscripts which will prevent effective deployment of sophisticated US weapons, and because it is Ukraine, graft. Cracks are starting to show in Ukrainian forces in Donbas, as the retreats seem to be slowly accelerating while the cumulative effects of the Russian artillery fire take their toll. That this conflict culminated in a very bloody war rather than difficult negotiations is a tragedy, and the US government bears a lot of the responsibility with its “We’ll fight the Russians to the last Ukrainian martyr” strategy.

That is your go to example? The Japanese making a move like cutting a cable? You’re not more concerned that in the real world the Russians or the North Koreans are more likely to do so connecting the U.S. or the Japanese to the rest of the world, no?

I would think that if the Japanese were to do so, cut a cable used by the Chinese we would have directed them to do so or have assessed the need to strategically do so. Not to mention the ability to take out a satellite, which the Chinese and the Russians are concentrating on.

If and when the U.S. once again has some measure of strong, competent American leadership none of these potentials will exist. Why? Because the consequences would be intolerable and costly.

Under the “Leadership” of Joe Biden and the leftist that are running him all potentials exist.

An assertion without evidence. Peter Zeihan disagrees and I find his arguments strong, if not compelling. The US is losing interest in Bretton Woods (not unreasonably – it succeeded in its purpose of containing the Soviet Union and has been running on inertia ever since). If we stop being the world’s sea police, the world will most definitely *not* be more interconnected, but rather significantly less connected.

This not only applies to physical movement, but data, too. If someone cuts a transoceanic fiber cable and the US doesn’t intervene, who will? The Suez Crisis was a *long* time ago. Let’s say the Japanese sever some links to China, would we do anything?

so this could have all been over months ago if the West hadn’t egged on Ukraine to fight an unwinnable war for the dubious “noble cause” of… keeping two Russian ethnic-majority regions in the Ukraine? after they voted to leave?

for this and the Steele Dossier we committed numerous acts of war against a country with thousands of ICBMs?

smart power!

Putin is a stupid thug and his war is a terrible idea, but Russians in Donbas also deserve political representation, and the West has no business in a Russian border war in any case

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KESKyQdGrbs

Realist/Questioner: I must say I am complemented that your Russian propaganda unit in Germany thinks my website important enough to spend a lot of your time and effort inundating it with numerous unconfirmed and generally shallow-minded analysis in an effort to spin the situation in the Ukraine to appear different than it is.

However, the rules here are very clear: No obscenities. And I don’t care if you are quoting someone. You can indicate the obscenity without publishing it. I have deleted it from your comment.

Next time you do this I will suspend you for a week. Do it a third time and out you go, forever. And trust me, when you change your ip address and nickname to hide your identity, I will quickly figure it out and ban you again. Be warned.

Taken from Martyanov’s blog:

“A World War II cemetery in Nijmegen has been vandalised with anti-Russian texts and swastikas, news website Nu.nl said on Wednesday afternoon.The website published several photos showing Ukrainian flags, swastikas and the text [deleted] painted across the entrance to the Jonkerbos cemetery and on several grave stones.The location is the last resting place for 1,642 soldiers, mainly British but also Canadians, Australians and other allies.-Advertentie-Nijmegen mayor Hubert Bruls said the vandalism was ‘disgusting’. ‘And to happen on a day like today,’ he told the Gelderlander, referring to the May 4 Remembrance Day commemorations. ‘I cannot understand how someone would do this.’

Read more at DutchNews.nl:
Well, Hubert Bruls, evidently missed the memo that Western political establishment and media are now into Ukie thing and support murder, rape and pillage committed by Nazi regime in Kiev and that from now on is the fate of Europe who MUST support Nazism, and she will. ”

See pictures in the blog.

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgIgXjSnCJM

“In a cynical yet effective move, German high command facilitated Vladimir Lenin’s return to Russia. Lenin then led the October Revolution that destroyed the Czarist government of Imperial Russian and led to its withdrawal from WW1, allowing Germany to focus its war effort on the Western allies.”

http://defensepoliticsasia.com/Ukraine/

[ Luhansk Front ] “Popasna captured confirmed as RIAFAN.ru reports from the ground”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-NNWSGv514

Joel Cambre: “Since I have been following this war I have noticed that the communiqués of the Russian forces are more reliable than those of the Ukrainian forces. The Russian general staff says nothing when it loses a position, and announces its successes. On the Ukrainian side, imaginary successes are too often invented, which is a classic feature of retreating armies.”

NEVER, that door has closed, if it was ever open.

Your spinning is useless PR masturbation.

https://t.me/intelslava/28256?single

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kz0qkS6aT5c

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61114843?msclkid=cd8fff45cefa11ecbf181f21a8241c1c

Yes, with minimal losses.

“Really”?

Mr. Zimmerman: You and your sources (in their arrogance) didn’t understand that. Once the Ukrainian army is destroyed, the whole country will fall to the Russians anyway. They will connect the eastern part of Ukraine (about 40% of the total area) to Russia. This is already happening everywhere the Russians are. As I said, the Russians are in no hurry, they want to keep their casualties as low as possible. The destruction of the enemy army is already very far advanced.

GRAPHIC!
Special forces inspect the positions of the destroyed unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

https://t.me/intelslava/28252

I feel sorry for the Ukrainian men dying for the falling US empire. Many are in their 40s, 50s or even older and were recently conscripted by criminal Zelenskyy, who also lets his Azov fascist brothers die at the Mariupol steel mill rather than allow them to surrender.

Nothing justifies what is happening in Ukraine. Doesn’t matter they wanted to join the EU and NATO. Doesn’t matter that corrupt western oligarchs were making more than russian ones. Doesn’t matter biden and fauchi were over there. De-nazification is pathetic and laughable. People who excuse the pain, misery, and suffering inflicted upon Ukraine are sick.

Russia should win, same way a bully should win when they beat down a weakling. Propaganda from both sides aside, at least the invaders are paying a price.

I really doubt russia wants to play the nuke game, they’re sure to equally loose on that one too. There’s no existential threat if you can’t destroy a neighboring country. Idiots.