Comments on: A calculator beats IPCC supercomputer models in predicting climate

By: Edward

Edward — Fri, 21 Aug 2015 22:36:20 +0000

The article’s conclusion is correct: “increasing CO2 concentration is not a crisis.” It is clear that there is another (or many other) factor that is more influential than CO2 concentration and that the IPCC models do not properly account for this factor. Even if the factor is that the heat “hides” in the oceans, it is not accounted for, and the models do not properly predict whether we need to expend resources fixing CO2 or fixing another more influential problem. Or for that matter whether the next ice age — due any millennium, now — is about to start, as predicted circa 1970.

Statistician Matt Briggs has another blog that I read. Among his topics is that correlation is not causation, and the article noted: “The current climate models fueling belief in manmade global warming do have fairly good “fit” to the data on which they were tested.” That “fit” is correlation, and I have to wonder if the data for the test were chosen so that it would fit a correlation test.

Climatology seems to have forgotten this problem, so they declared their models to be relevant based upon correlation with past data sets (which have been modified, so do they still correlate?). However, as is noted, the predictions have failed spectacularly, yet the models are still being advertised by the IPCC as relevant.

Everyone’s job is based upon predicting the future. Even the sandwich maker who made my lunch predicted that the ingredients and amounts she used would make me a happy customer. When these predictions fail, then the job was poorly done and better prediction techniques (or models) become required. For any job.

Except, apparently, for climatology and IPCC jobs.

By: Robert Zimmerman

Robert Zimmerman — Thu, 20 Aug 2015 19:45:16 +0000

In reply to Max. It appears you did not read the post carefully. The point of this new simple model is not to predict the climate, but to illustrate the weakness of all the other models, and to emphasize their worthlessness.

By: Max

Max — Thu, 20 Aug 2015 19:18:27 +0000

That’s all we need, a more accurate digital crystal ball. I wish they would leave the weather predicting to astrologers, gypsy card readers, Shaman and their bones, and retirees in rocking chairs.
Now if their program could predict the stock market, they may have something…
The truth about computer projections bears repeating. Computers are stupid.
Here is my favorite example. A Volkswagen traveling past a new 30 mph speed limit sign with built-in camera. He is clocked at 31 mph on the first day. The next day recorded at 32 mph. On the third he was traveling 33 mph. Computer projections put the Volkswagen doing 133 mph in 100 days. The math is right, but the results are ridiculous.