Air Force sends letter of concern about Vulcan to ULA
According to a report yesterday [behind a paywall], the Air Force has sent a letter of concern to ULA and its joint owners, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, about the long delays getting its new Vulcan rocket operational.
When the military chose in 2021 ULA and SpaceX to be its two launch providers for the first half of the 2020s, it expected ULA to complete 60% of the launches and SpaceX 40%. It also expected Vulcan to being launching within a year or two, at the latest.
Instead, the first launch of Vulcan did not occur until 2024, and its second launch — required by the military before it will allow Vulcan to launch its payloads — won’t occur until late this year. Worse, the military has a large backlog of launches it has assigned to Vulcan that need to launch quickly.
“I am growing concerned with ULA’s ability to scale manufacturing of its Vulcan rocket and scale its launch cadence to meet our needs,” [Air Force Assistant Secretary Frank] Calvelli wrote. “Currently there is military satellite capability sitting on the ground due to Vulcan delays. ULA has a backlog of 25 National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 Vulcan launches on contract.”
These 25 launches, Calvelli notes, are due to be completed by the end of 2027. He asked Boeing and Lockheed to complete an “independent review” of United Launch Alliance’s ability to scale manufacturing of its Vulcan rockets and meet its commitments to the military. Calvelli also noted that Vulcan has made commitments to launch dozens of satellites for others over that period, a reference to a contract between United Launch Alliance and Amazon for Project Kuiper satellites.
ULA says that once operations ramp up, it plans to launch Vulcan twice a month. The Air Force doubts about whether that will be possible however are well founded. To meet that schedule ULA will need delivery per month of at least four BE-4 engines from Blue Origin, and so far there is no indication the Bezos company can meet that demand. Delays at Blue Origin in developing that engine are the main reason Vulcan is so far behind schedule in the first place.
In order to get Vulcan operational, ULA needs to fly a second time successfully. The second launch of Sierra Space’s Tenacity mini-shuttle is booked for that flight, and was originally supposed to launch this spring. Tenacity however was not ready, as it is still undergoing final ground testing. The launch is now set for the fall, but both ULA and the Pentagon are discussing replacing it with a dummy payload should Tenacity experience any more delays.
The source of all of these problems points to Blue Origin. Not only has it been unable to deliver its BE-4 rocket engine on schedule — thus blocking Vulcan — the long delays in developing its own New Glenn orbital rocket (which uses seven BE-4 engines) has given the military fewer launch options. As a result the military has been left with only one rocket company, SpaceX, capable of launching its large payloads.
To put Blue Origin’s problems in perspective, for Blue Origin to finally achieve its many promises and get both Vulcan and New Glenn flying regularly, it will need to begin producing a minimum of 50 to 150 BE-4 engines per year, with two-thirds for its own New Glenn rocket. Right now all evidence suggests the company is having problems building two per year.
In other words, the Pentagon might send a letter of concern to ULA, but it should instead be focusing its ire on Blue Origin.
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In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
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According to a report yesterday [behind a paywall], the Air Force has sent a letter of concern to ULA and its joint owners, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, about the long delays getting its new Vulcan rocket operational.
When the military chose in 2021 ULA and SpaceX to be its two launch providers for the first half of the 2020s, it expected ULA to complete 60% of the launches and SpaceX 40%. It also expected Vulcan to being launching within a year or two, at the latest.
Instead, the first launch of Vulcan did not occur until 2024, and its second launch — required by the military before it will allow Vulcan to launch its payloads — won’t occur until late this year. Worse, the military has a large backlog of launches it has assigned to Vulcan that need to launch quickly.
“I am growing concerned with ULA’s ability to scale manufacturing of its Vulcan rocket and scale its launch cadence to meet our needs,” [Air Force Assistant Secretary Frank] Calvelli wrote. “Currently there is military satellite capability sitting on the ground due to Vulcan delays. ULA has a backlog of 25 National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 Vulcan launches on contract.”
These 25 launches, Calvelli notes, are due to be completed by the end of 2027. He asked Boeing and Lockheed to complete an “independent review” of United Launch Alliance’s ability to scale manufacturing of its Vulcan rockets and meet its commitments to the military. Calvelli also noted that Vulcan has made commitments to launch dozens of satellites for others over that period, a reference to a contract between United Launch Alliance and Amazon for Project Kuiper satellites.
ULA says that once operations ramp up, it plans to launch Vulcan twice a month. The Air Force doubts about whether that will be possible however are well founded. To meet that schedule ULA will need delivery per month of at least four BE-4 engines from Blue Origin, and so far there is no indication the Bezos company can meet that demand. Delays at Blue Origin in developing that engine are the main reason Vulcan is so far behind schedule in the first place.
In order to get Vulcan operational, ULA needs to fly a second time successfully. The second launch of Sierra Space’s Tenacity mini-shuttle is booked for that flight, and was originally supposed to launch this spring. Tenacity however was not ready, as it is still undergoing final ground testing. The launch is now set for the fall, but both ULA and the Pentagon are discussing replacing it with a dummy payload should Tenacity experience any more delays.
The source of all of these problems points to Blue Origin. Not only has it been unable to deliver its BE-4 rocket engine on schedule — thus blocking Vulcan — the long delays in developing its own New Glenn orbital rocket (which uses seven BE-4 engines) has given the military fewer launch options. As a result the military has been left with only one rocket company, SpaceX, capable of launching its large payloads.
To put Blue Origin’s problems in perspective, for Blue Origin to finally achieve its many promises and get both Vulcan and New Glenn flying regularly, it will need to begin producing a minimum of 50 to 150 BE-4 engines per year, with two-thirds for its own New Glenn rocket. Right now all evidence suggests the company is having problems building two per year.
In other words, the Pentagon might send a letter of concern to ULA, but it should instead be focusing its ire on Blue Origin.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
The military should also have their USAF and USSF Secretaries have a chat with Joe Biden, and ask him to quit screwing around with SpaceX and let them do the launches required to develop the our next generation of boosters!
But of course throwing our military (and Israel) under the bus is necessary for Joe to hang onto the Young Terrorist vote!
I wonder if SpaceX would sell their Raptor motors to ULA as a replacement for Blue Origin?
I’m curious as to which national security payloads are stuck on the ground awaiting launch. As far as I can tell, it’s only USSF-106.
USSF-106 is a relatively low-value technology demonstration mission that the Space Force wants to use as a pathfinder for a new launch vehicle. They did much the same thing for their first one or two Falcon 9 launches. So even if another launch vehicle were available, they’d still wait for Vulcan.
There is, of course, GPS 3-7. The GPS constellation is currently as full as it can get. There are 24 operational satellites on orbit along with eight on-orbit spares. That’s as many on-orbit spares that there can be. In order to launch another one they’d have to disable one of the current spares. GPS III satellites can be launched by SpaceX should the need arise, but the eight on-orbit spares would probably last 5-10 years, so I highly doubt that will be necessary.
We’re actually in a good spot as a country. As far as is known from public information, all of our constellations, military and civil, are at full strength.
Tom D,
Good question. I have not seen many performance numbers about the BE-4 published. The Raptor numbers are out there and the thrust values are close to the BE-4, but that’s about it. It would take same re-engineering of the Vulcan to take the Raptors. Of the payload mass to orbit numbers published, the Vulcan is in between a Falcon-9 and Falcon-Heavy in capability, but it uses SRBs as well.
Of course the Falcon-9/Heavy first stages use the Merlin engines which use kerosene/LOX, while the Raptor and BE-4 engines use methane/LOX
SpaceX could certainly deliver the engines in the quantity that they need. The y have demonstrated their manufacturing capabilities.
Dwayne Day had a fine article (Burning Thunder) about Dynetics SRB replacement called Pyrios.
Pyrios was to use two simplified Saturn V type F-1 engines and simple, rugged J-2 equipped upper stages (named Jarvis long before BO co-opted that name for NG’s upper stage).
The whole idea of having two EELVs from two companies was what USAF wanted before ULA formed.
Pyrios needs be restarted with Dynetics in the driver’s seat and ULA and Bruno shown the door.
The genius of SpaceX is shown again for not just building rockets, rocket engines and Starlink satellites, but building rocket, rocket engine and Starlink satellite manufacturing systems. I wonder how they kept that objective from constantly being diluted.
I’m reminded of this system design flow cartoon:
https://thenamiracleoccurs.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/miracle2.jpg
Looks like there is a reason SpaceX has commissioned another drone ship. I expect the government hasn’t just been talking to ULA and Blue Origin, and have already started to slate a number of their priority missions over to SpaceX and the details of this will be announced later this year. Just a guess, but it’s what I’d be doing if I were in charge.
Another drone ship in each ocean would be best. They can at least be used as back ups and kept in port until then.
But Space X’s launch cadence is limited by the slowest portion of it. Its best they do not let that become the drone ships.