Astronomers: Potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YR4 originally came from main asteroid belt
Using new data from ground-based telescopes, astronomers now believe that the potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YR4 originally came from main asteroid belt and is a stony solid body, not a rubble pile.
The study reveals YR4 is a solid, stony type that likely originated from an asteroid family in the central Main Belt between Mars and Jupiter, a region not previously known to produce Earth-crossing asteroids. “YR4 spins once every 20 minutes, rotates in a retrograde direction, has a flattened, irregular shape, and is the density of solid rock,” said Bryce Bolin, research scientist with Eureka Scientific and lead author of the study.
You can read the paper here [pdf].
At present calculations suggest it has an almost zero chance of hitting the Earth in 2032, though during that close approach the chances of it hitting the Moon range from 2% to 4%, depending on which scientist you ask.
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Using new data from ground-based telescopes, astronomers now believe that the potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YR4 originally came from main asteroid belt and is a stony solid body, not a rubble pile.
The study reveals YR4 is a solid, stony type that likely originated from an asteroid family in the central Main Belt between Mars and Jupiter, a region not previously known to produce Earth-crossing asteroids. “YR4 spins once every 20 minutes, rotates in a retrograde direction, has a flattened, irregular shape, and is the density of solid rock,” said Bryce Bolin, research scientist with Eureka Scientific and lead author of the study.
You can read the paper here [pdf].
At present calculations suggest it has an almost zero chance of hitting the Earth in 2032, though during that close approach the chances of it hitting the Moon range from 2% to 4%, depending on which scientist you ask.
Readers!
My annual February birthday fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now over. Thank you to everyone who donated or subscribed. While not a record-setter, the donations were more than sufficient and slightly above average.
As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
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Some have suggested burying inflatable based in rubble piles for shielding –but a nice solid rock has its charms as well.
For years I have wondered whether Earth / Lunar orbiting asteroids could be used for planetary defense. Small deflections could be made by onboard rockets that might allow them to be steered into the path of incoming threats.
Popcorn in Bed
Cassie; First Time Watching…
“Starship Troopers” (1997)
https://youtu.be/ls7aa_GRoOQ
42:05
And yes, obviously capturing such a guardian asteroid would require enormous energy, at least a nuclear powered rocket firing for months or even years!
The paper referenced here only theorizes where in the asteroid belt that 2024YR4 originated. Although it does have all of the orbital elements listed in Table 1, plus three other constants that are calculated for orbit..
This paper (arXiv:2504.04003v1 by Elango & Loeb) estimates parallax corrections for the orbit at the Dec 22, 2032 date. It also shows all six of the orbital elements.
Both papers ended with an appeal for telescopes at all five Lagrange points:
“…NEO-specific telescopes positioned at all Lagrange points thereby eliminating existing NEO blindspots.” I smell more cash for scopes.
I could not locate a paper that actually calculates the estimated “hit” percentages. Most of the folks are using the JPL Horizons system (https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons/) for calculating the orbits of earth-moon-YR4, and may not have the time to write formal papers about their findings. But there is a tutorial for using the Horizons program yourself, with all of its 1,444,807 asteroids et al. Yeah, and here I thought there were only 1,443,500 of them!
Ray Van Dune
April 9, 2025 at 7:20 am
“””For years I have wondered whether Earth / Lunar orbiting asteroids could be used for planetary defense. Small deflections could be made by onboard rockets that might allow them to be steered into the path of incoming threats.”””
Obviously I agree.
https://selenianboondocks.com/2013/03/dinokiller-eight-ball/