Astronomers: Potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YR4 originally came from main asteroid beltUsing new data from ground-based telescopes, astronomers now believe that the potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YR4 originally came from main asteroid belt and is a stony solid body, not a rubble pile.
The study reveals YR4 is a solid, stony type that likely originated from an asteroid family in the central Main Belt between Mars and Jupiter, a region not previously known to produce Earth-crossing asteroids. “YR4 spins once every 20 minutes, rotates in a retrograde direction, has a flattened, irregular shape, and is the density of solid rock,” said Bryce Bolin, research scientist with Eureka Scientific and lead author of the study.
You can read the paper here [pdf].
At present calculations suggest it has an almost zero chance of hitting the Earth in 2032, though during that close approach the chances of it hitting the Moon range from 2% to 4%, depending on which scientist you ask.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Using new data from ground-based telescopes, astronomers now believe that the potentially dangerous asteroid 2024 YR4 originally came from main asteroid belt and is a stony solid body, not a rubble pile.
The study reveals YR4 is a solid, stony type that likely originated from an asteroid family in the central Main Belt between Mars and Jupiter, a region not previously known to produce Earth-crossing asteroids. “YR4 spins once every 20 minutes, rotates in a retrograde direction, has a flattened, irregular shape, and is the density of solid rock,” said Bryce Bolin, research scientist with Eureka Scientific and lead author of the study.
You can read the paper here [pdf].
At present calculations suggest it has an almost zero chance of hitting the Earth in 2032, though during that close approach the chances of it hitting the Moon range from 2% to 4%, depending on which scientist you ask.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Some have suggested burying inflatable based in rubble piles for shielding –but a nice solid rock has its charms as well.
For years I have wondered whether Earth / Lunar orbiting asteroids could be used for planetary defense. Small deflections could be made by onboard rockets that might allow them to be steered into the path of incoming threats.
Popcorn in Bed
Cassie; First Time Watching…
“Starship Troopers” (1997)
https://youtu.be/ls7aa_GRoOQ
42:05
And yes, obviously capturing such a guardian asteroid would require enormous energy, at least a nuclear powered rocket firing for months or even years!
The paper referenced here only theorizes where in the asteroid belt that 2024YR4 originated. Although it does have all of the orbital elements listed in Table 1, plus three other constants that are calculated for orbit..
This paper (arXiv:2504.04003v1 by Elango & Loeb) estimates parallax corrections for the orbit at the Dec 22, 2032 date. It also shows all six of the orbital elements.
Both papers ended with an appeal for telescopes at all five Lagrange points:
“…NEO-specific telescopes positioned at all Lagrange points thereby eliminating existing NEO blindspots.” I smell more cash for scopes.
I could not locate a paper that actually calculates the estimated “hit” percentages. Most of the folks are using the JPL Horizons system (https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons/) for calculating the orbits of earth-moon-YR4, and may not have the time to write formal papers about their findings. But there is a tutorial for using the Horizons program yourself, with all of its 1,444,807 asteroids et al. Yeah, and here I thought there were only 1,443,500 of them!
Ray Van Dune
April 9, 2025 at 7:20 am
“””For years I have wondered whether Earth / Lunar orbiting asteroids could be used for planetary defense. Small deflections could be made by onboard rockets that might allow them to be steered into the path of incoming threats.”””
Obviously I agree.
https://selenianboondocks.com/2013/03/dinokiller-eight-ball/