Axiom manned mission delayed further because of new Zvezda leaks on ISS
Figure 3 from September Inspector General report, showing Zvezda’s location on ISS.
According to a press update today by NASA, the launch of the commercial Ax-4 manned mission to ISS has been further delayed due to work by the Russians attempting to seal new leaks in the station’s Zvezda module.
NASA and Axiom Space are postponing the launch of Axiom Mission 4 to the International Space Station. As part of an ongoing investigation, NASA is working with Roscosmos to understand a new pressure signature, after the recent post-repair effort in the aft most segment of the International Space Station’s Zvezda service module.
Cosmonauts aboard the space station recently performed inspections of the pressurized module’s interior surfaces, sealed some additional areas of interest, and measured the current leak rate. Following this effort, the segment now is holding pressure.
In other words, the Russians had recently detected an increase in leakage in the module, identified several more cracks inside Zvezda, and have been working to seal them.
The graphic above comes from a 2024 NASA inspector general report, which at that time noted a significant increase in the leak rate in 2024 (see the data in the lower right). Since then it has been NASA policy to close the hatch that connects the American and Russian sections of the station whenever anything docks with Zvezda, due to risk that the docking could cause the module to fail entirely.
Zvezda is one of the oldest modules on ISS, built in the late 1980s and launched in 2000. It is believed the leaks are due to stress fractures in its hull due to the many dockings and undockings that have occurred at its aft docking port.
If the NASA press release can be believed, the situation is under control and the repairs have been successful. If so, expect the Axiom mission to be rescheduled shortly.
If not, we could be witnessing the beginning of the end of ISS, five years earlier than planned by bureaucrats in Washington and Moscow.
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Figure 3 from September Inspector General report, showing Zvezda’s location on ISS.
According to a press update today by NASA, the launch of the commercial Ax-4 manned mission to ISS has been further delayed due to work by the Russians attempting to seal new leaks in the station’s Zvezda module.
NASA and Axiom Space are postponing the launch of Axiom Mission 4 to the International Space Station. As part of an ongoing investigation, NASA is working with Roscosmos to understand a new pressure signature, after the recent post-repair effort in the aft most segment of the International Space Station’s Zvezda service module.
Cosmonauts aboard the space station recently performed inspections of the pressurized module’s interior surfaces, sealed some additional areas of interest, and measured the current leak rate. Following this effort, the segment now is holding pressure.
In other words, the Russians had recently detected an increase in leakage in the module, identified several more cracks inside Zvezda, and have been working to seal them.
The graphic above comes from a 2024 NASA inspector general report, which at that time noted a significant increase in the leak rate in 2024 (see the data in the lower right). Since then it has been NASA policy to close the hatch that connects the American and Russian sections of the station whenever anything docks with Zvezda, due to risk that the docking could cause the module to fail entirely.
Zvezda is one of the oldest modules on ISS, built in the late 1980s and launched in 2000. It is believed the leaks are due to stress fractures in its hull due to the many dockings and undockings that have occurred at its aft docking port.
If the NASA press release can be believed, the situation is under control and the repairs have been successful. If so, expect the Axiom mission to be rescheduled shortly.
If not, we could be witnessing the beginning of the end of ISS, five years earlier than planned by bureaucrats in Washington and Moscow.
Readers!
My annual February birthday fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now over. Thank you to everyone who donated or subscribed. While not a record-setter, the donations were more than sufficient and slightly above average.
As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Probably caused by Trump’s budget cuts.
/sarcasm on
An interesting exchange about this on X last night between Casey Handmer and Elon Musk:
Casey:
Elon:
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1933403255939510357
Does Elon think that SpaceX can have the Deorbit Vehicle ready in two years?
Richard M: None of this is news. The IG report I reference above described these problems in great detail, though it did so in a manner that attempted to soft pedal their seriousness. An honest read however hid nothing.
Musk himself has already gone on record on this. See this post in February: Musk: ISS should be de-orbited quickly! And he may be right.
I outlined all those issues then. Nothing has changed. I also noted however this fact:
This is the same attitude Cruz and many Congress critters now have about forcing the next Orion mission be manned, and go around the Moon.
Hi Bob,
Oh, I hope I did not come across as implying that there’s really anything new here. You have reported on this before. And Elon obviously was saying this five months ago.
I am just struck that it’s being brought up again, now. Especially with Elon going to such pains to be on good behavior this week. And I think Casey is hinting at things he hears from his friends at NASA that are not fit yet for public reveal.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the station had a failure which forced abandonment in the next year, or two years, or five years, and I can only hope that it does not cost lives. But clearly NASA is very unhappy with the politics of confronting this issue publicly. For the last five years, it has consistently tried to maximize ISS use, and consistently tried to keep the relationship with Roscosmos going no matter how bad things got with Ukraine; and now it works for a White House which has a keen interest in at least reaching a detente with the Kremlin. I wonder if staff in the ISS operations office are learning to pray the rosary now.
One has to wonder just what the Russians are actually doing on Zvezda to mitigate the cracks. Handmer is certainly correct in his description of the etiology of aluminum structure crack propagation. But it seems that there are steps that could be taken to keep the cracks from spreading. The simplest would likely be to do what Safelight does to fix windshield cracks – pull a vacuum on the affected area, force in a low-viscosity polymer precursor solution under minor pressure, then cure it with UV. One wouldn’t even need to – as Safelight does – polish the repair to match the contour of the part being repaired afterward.