Agenor: Everything you say is true, except there is a larger context, especially with Blue Origin, that justifies the criticism against it. They proposed their rocket in 2013, and didn’t launch it until 12 years later. Similarly, ULA proposed Vulcan in 2014. It took them a decade to get to its first launch.

In both cases, the development time was simply too long. You can’t effectively compete when you work that slowly. SpaceX proposed Falcon 9 around 2005 and launched in 2010, only five years later. It was thus operational when no one else was, and grabbed the bulk of the market share.

The same criticism could be applied Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser. It was first proposed in 2004. Its development has been incredibly slow, far slower than justified since this is actually not a new or untested concept.

SpaceX needed close to 2 years for their first 3 launches. If we look at calendar years they go: 2,0,2,3,6,7,8
ULA is held up by their “only one high bay restriction”. They stack Vulcan – payload not ready/Kuiper is more important – they destack Vulcan and stack another Atlas, back and forth…
RL needed 1,5 years for 3 flights

But, Blue Origin is not able to fly in June, so they get the shame?
I know that they are late, everyone is late, always is, always will be.
My personal “favorite” is Dream Chaser. They are only half a year away from flying (since 2022). DC was supposed to be the 2nd payload for Vulcan.
Well, the first orbital test of Starship was supposed to happen in April 2020, according to E.M. in late Sept. 2019. In reality, 20 April 2023. So instead of 6 Months, 42 Months.

There is also one point that is nearly never mentioned.
Committing to a high output production line before a rocket gets rid of it kinks will always backfire. First successful flight – modifications – next flights – more modifications – then comes the focus on a high output production line.

Again, early in a program, everyone is always laaaaate.

ULA and Blue Origin have underperformed badly in recent years and still seem mired in deep mud anent getting to truly operational status with their new vehicles.

And, contra the old Louis Armstrong song, it isn’t as though they have all the time in the world to get their acts together. Space Force has already switched a few payloads from the still-unavailable Vulcan to F9 and more may well follow.

Nor are the fat Kuiper contracts invulnerable. Thus far, Amazon seems to be ramping up Kuipersat production faster than ULA and Blue, combined, are ramping up launch availability. If this mismatch continues to grow, I can easily see Amazon doing another deal with SpaceX for a lot more than the three F9 launches it now is about to see take place. Business is business at SpaceX. It has launched part or all of every other significant recent non-PRC comsat constellation and is about to add Kuiper to that list. Doing more launches for Kuiper would be easy-peasy.

And not far behind Rocket Lab and Neutron are Stoke and Nova, Relativity and Terran-R and even Firefly and Eclipse. Further out, there is the potential wild card of Hstar and its yet-to-be-named fully reusable direct heavy lift competitor to Falcon Heavy and New Glenn.

Tempus fugit. ULA and Blue need to fly as well.

Richard M: The growing desperate need for alternative launch providers to SpaceX might force an acceleration in Rocket Lab’s plans, especially if Neutron is successful right off the bat.

Richard M: I have been putting my hopes on Rocket Lab and Stoke now for several years. I suspect that if Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket launches as planned this year and is successful, a lot of business will quickly shift from Blue Origin and ULA to Rocket Lab.

Considering the actual success of the first launch, it seems very puzzling for there to be a nine-month delay until the second launch, even with the failure to land the first stage. Was there some technical problems with the rocket that have not been revealed?

I have no special contacts or insights into Blue Origin. But reading the subreddit and discord discussion of this by BO employees does not paint an attractive picture of the org culture at BO. Even allowing for the possibility that the unhappiest people tend to be the noisiest…the sense is that the recent round of firings were essentially random, and eliminated too many good performers and too few largely ineffectual middle managers. Jeff Bezos, meanwhile, is currently partying in the Mediterranean, and yes, the BO employees noticed. No one commenting in these places over the last six months thought that May was ever plausible.

If so, it is a shame. Because I agree that however amazing SpaceX is right now, a really vibrant launch market requires real competition for them. Maybe our hopes are better placed on Stoke and Rocket Lab.

Perhaps they’re waiting for better rocket motors to come along? There is some advancement in that area.
https://www.usu.edu/today/story/nasa-testing-usus-3d-printed-hybrid-rocket-motor-for-safer-moon-landings