China accelerates its schedule for its upcoming Moon/Mars missions while admitting its lunar base will take longer
The original phase I plan of Chinese-Russian lunar
base plan, from June 2021.
The new colonial movement: In several different reports today in China’s state-run press — timed to coincide with the launch of three astronauts to Tiangong-3 — Chinese officials confirmed that it has moved up the planned launch dates for both its first lunar rover as well as its Mars sample return mission, and it is also expanding its offers to the international community to partner on those missions.
At the same time it let slip the fact that it will not be establishing its lunar base on the Moon in 2030, as previously claimed. Moreover, note how this so-called accelerated schedule of lunar missions is actually behind the announced timetable outlined by China and Russia in 2021, as shown on the right. None will fly by this year, as promised.
As for the news today, first China announced that its Tianwen-3 Mars sample return mission will launch in 2028.
The Tianwen-3 spacecraft comprises a lander, an ascent vehicle, a service module, an orbiter and a return module, and it is equipped with six scientific payloads. The orbiter will operate in a circular Martian orbit at an altitude of about 350 kilometers, and has a designed lifespan of no less than five years. The service module will operate in a highly elliptical orbit, conducting in-orbit exploration for approximately two Martian years with a designed lifespan of no less than five years.
For this mission, the CNSA is offering international cooperation payload resources including no more than 15 kilograms on the orbiter and up to 5 kilograms on the service module. Detailed technical specifications are available on the official CNSA website.
It will take two launches to carry out the Mars sample-return mission due to the limited carrying capacities of the current rockets. Two Long March-5 carrier rockets will be used for the mission, Liu Jizhong, chief designer of China’s Mars sample-return mission, said in an earlier interview.
The simple design of this mission, based on China’s very successful lunar sample return missions, tells us that it will likely happen more or less as planned (though maybe not on schedule), and will likely beat NASA in getting samples back from Mars.
Next China announced that Chang’e-8 lunar rover — targeting a site called the Leibnitz-Beta Plateau near where NASA’s Viper rover had planned to land and where Astrobotic’s Griffin lander with a private rover will arrive instead — will now launch in 2029. This will be a follow-up of its Chang-e-7 lander in 2026, which will land on the rim of Shackleton Crater at the Moon’s south pole.
As with the Mars mission, China emphasized the participation of other nations:
According to CNSA, the 10 selected collaborative projects include a multi-functional robot designed by researchers in Hong Kong, a lunar rover developed by Pakistan and the International Society for Terrain-Vehicle Systems (ISTVS), an exploration rover made by Türkiye, and radio astronomical instruments by South Africa and Peru. The projects also include Italy’s laser retroreflector arrays, Russia’s plasma and dust analyzer and high-energy particle detector, Thailand’s neutron analyzer, Bahrain and Egypt’s lunar surface imaging system, and Iran’s lunar potential monitor.
In fact, another state-run press announcement today touted China’s entire International Lunar Research Station (ILRB) partnership, noting that it now has seventeen partner nations and more fifty international research institutions signed on. Though this sounds impressive, this international partnership remains somewhat limited compared to the American Artemis Accords alliance of 54 nations.
This last story however indicated something else of note. It appears that China’s previous claims that it will begin construction of its lunar base by 2030 no longer hold.
Wu Weiren, the chief designer of China’s lunar exploration program, said that the ILRS, which is a scientific experimental facility consisting of sections on the lunar surface and in lunar orbit, is projected to be built in two phases: a basic model to be built by 2035 in the lunar south pole region, and an extended model to be built in the 2040s.
Chang’e-7 and Chang’e-8 will become parts of the basic model.
It appears reality has finally set in at China’s space agency. China might land humans on the Moon by 2030, but getting a manned lunar base established will not be so easy, and will likely not occur any sooner than the 2040s, if then. Instead, China is making believe that its individual government manned and unmanned missions signal the establishment of this base, when all they really do is begin the initial scouting.
“Proclaim liberty throughout all the land unto all
the inhabitants thereof.” Photo credit: William Zhang
These stories underline again for me the logic of the U.S. forgoing any direct competition with China in getting back to the Moon, and instead let its government have its stunt-like lunar and Mars successes unchallenged. The U.S. should instead focus on building a thriving aerospace industry in Earth orbit, made up of many different companies and entities making profits doing all sorts of different things, from building space stations to orbital tugs to space junk removal to hauling cargo and people to orbit to refueling to space tourism to providing communications to Earth, and on and on. Once that industry is established and in the black, it will be able to leap-frog China so fast that future generations won’t even consider these Chinese missions very important in the long scheme of history.
And more important, we will do it by establishing a space-faring civilization based on freedom, private property, and individual achievement, rather than a government-run space program where the citizens are merely the servants of their all-powerful rulers.
Readers!
My annual February birthday fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now over. Thank you to everyone who donated or subscribed. While not a record-setter, the donations were more than sufficient and slightly above average.
As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
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c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
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You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
The original phase I plan of Chinese-Russian lunar
base plan, from June 2021.
The new colonial movement: In several different reports today in China’s state-run press — timed to coincide with the launch of three astronauts to Tiangong-3 — Chinese officials confirmed that it has moved up the planned launch dates for both its first lunar rover as well as its Mars sample return mission, and it is also expanding its offers to the international community to partner on those missions.
At the same time it let slip the fact that it will not be establishing its lunar base on the Moon in 2030, as previously claimed. Moreover, note how this so-called accelerated schedule of lunar missions is actually behind the announced timetable outlined by China and Russia in 2021, as shown on the right. None will fly by this year, as promised.
As for the news today, first China announced that its Tianwen-3 Mars sample return mission will launch in 2028.
The Tianwen-3 spacecraft comprises a lander, an ascent vehicle, a service module, an orbiter and a return module, and it is equipped with six scientific payloads. The orbiter will operate in a circular Martian orbit at an altitude of about 350 kilometers, and has a designed lifespan of no less than five years. The service module will operate in a highly elliptical orbit, conducting in-orbit exploration for approximately two Martian years with a designed lifespan of no less than five years.
For this mission, the CNSA is offering international cooperation payload resources including no more than 15 kilograms on the orbiter and up to 5 kilograms on the service module. Detailed technical specifications are available on the official CNSA website.
It will take two launches to carry out the Mars sample-return mission due to the limited carrying capacities of the current rockets. Two Long March-5 carrier rockets will be used for the mission, Liu Jizhong, chief designer of China’s Mars sample-return mission, said in an earlier interview.
The simple design of this mission, based on China’s very successful lunar sample return missions, tells us that it will likely happen more or less as planned (though maybe not on schedule), and will likely beat NASA in getting samples back from Mars.
Next China announced that Chang’e-8 lunar rover — targeting a site called the Leibnitz-Beta Plateau near where NASA’s Viper rover had planned to land and where Astrobotic’s Griffin lander with a private rover will arrive instead — will now launch in 2029. This will be a follow-up of its Chang-e-7 lander in 2026, which will land on the rim of Shackleton Crater at the Moon’s south pole.
As with the Mars mission, China emphasized the participation of other nations:
According to CNSA, the 10 selected collaborative projects include a multi-functional robot designed by researchers in Hong Kong, a lunar rover developed by Pakistan and the International Society for Terrain-Vehicle Systems (ISTVS), an exploration rover made by Türkiye, and radio astronomical instruments by South Africa and Peru. The projects also include Italy’s laser retroreflector arrays, Russia’s plasma and dust analyzer and high-energy particle detector, Thailand’s neutron analyzer, Bahrain and Egypt’s lunar surface imaging system, and Iran’s lunar potential monitor.
In fact, another state-run press announcement today touted China’s entire International Lunar Research Station (ILRB) partnership, noting that it now has seventeen partner nations and more fifty international research institutions signed on. Though this sounds impressive, this international partnership remains somewhat limited compared to the American Artemis Accords alliance of 54 nations.
This last story however indicated something else of note. It appears that China’s previous claims that it will begin construction of its lunar base by 2030 no longer hold.
Wu Weiren, the chief designer of China’s lunar exploration program, said that the ILRS, which is a scientific experimental facility consisting of sections on the lunar surface and in lunar orbit, is projected to be built in two phases: a basic model to be built by 2035 in the lunar south pole region, and an extended model to be built in the 2040s.
Chang’e-7 and Chang’e-8 will become parts of the basic model.
It appears reality has finally set in at China’s space agency. China might land humans on the Moon by 2030, but getting a manned lunar base established will not be so easy, and will likely not occur any sooner than the 2040s, if then. Instead, China is making believe that its individual government manned and unmanned missions signal the establishment of this base, when all they really do is begin the initial scouting.
“Proclaim liberty throughout all the land unto all
the inhabitants thereof.” Photo credit: William Zhang
These stories underline again for me the logic of the U.S. forgoing any direct competition with China in getting back to the Moon, and instead let its government have its stunt-like lunar and Mars successes unchallenged. The U.S. should instead focus on building a thriving aerospace industry in Earth orbit, made up of many different companies and entities making profits doing all sorts of different things, from building space stations to orbital tugs to space junk removal to hauling cargo and people to orbit to refueling to space tourism to providing communications to Earth, and on and on. Once that industry is established and in the black, it will be able to leap-frog China so fast that future generations won’t even consider these Chinese missions very important in the long scheme of history.
And more important, we will do it by establishing a space-faring civilization based on freedom, private property, and individual achievement, rather than a government-run space program where the citizens are merely the servants of their all-powerful rulers.
Readers!
My annual February birthday fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now over. Thank you to everyone who donated or subscribed. While not a record-setter, the donations were more than sufficient and slightly above average.
As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Yes, if they want to build a base of even the smallest sort on the Moon, they are going to need an architecture considerably more robust than the updated Apollo counterpart they are currently developing.
You sure could build a base using Starship or Blue Moon/New Glenn, though….
Richard M wrote, “You sure could build a base using Starship or Blue Moon/New Glenn, though….”
I don’t agree. Two companies with lunar landers ain’t enough. My whole point is where need a large aerospace industry of MANY companies with MANY ideas and MANY products of all kinds, competing with each other for profit. Starship and Blue Moon are merely a start.
Only when a nation has such an industry will it be capable of building a colony on another world. And it won’t be the government doing it.