Crash prediction for Soviet-era Venus probe narrows
Click for original image.
The prediction for when and where a 1972 Soviet-era failed Venus lander will crash back on Earth has now narrowed to an eight hour period on May 10, 2025, centered at 1:54 pm (Eastern).
The map to the right, from the Aerospace Corporation, shows the orbital path of the lander for the Venera lander, covering its last six orbits. Though the center of the prediction would have the lander come down over the Atlantic, that orbit has it crossing parts of South America, all of Europe, much of Asia and India, and Australia.
The lander failed to leave Earth orbit when it was launched in 1972, and has been circling the Earth since. As it was designed to survive the very thick and hot atmosphere of Venus, it is likely to survive re-entry through Earth’s more benign atmosphere.
This prediction will narrow continuously for the rest of the day. I will post an update this evening.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Click for original image.
The prediction for when and where a 1972 Soviet-era failed Venus lander will crash back on Earth has now narrowed to an eight hour period on May 10, 2025, centered at 1:54 pm (Eastern).
The map to the right, from the Aerospace Corporation, shows the orbital path of the lander for the Venera lander, covering its last six orbits. Though the center of the prediction would have the lander come down over the Atlantic, that orbit has it crossing parts of South America, all of Europe, much of Asia and India, and Australia.
The lander failed to leave Earth orbit when it was launched in 1972, and has been circling the Earth since. As it was designed to survive the very thick and hot atmosphere of Venus, it is likely to survive re-entry through Earth’s more benign atmosphere.
This prediction will narrow continuously for the rest of the day. I will post an update this evening.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Too bad. Would have been a great test subject for those companies doing satellite repair, upgrades, and controlled de-orbiting. By repair/upgrades, I mean keep it up there until we can perform a controlled de-orbit in the middle of the ocean.
Ronaldus Magnus: Though you are right that this spacecraft would have been an ideal candidate for such de-orbit mission, there are many reasons it isn’t happening. As the Venera probe was launched by the Soviet Union, and Russia inherited its assets when that empire fell, only Russia could perform a salvage or repair mission to it (as per the Outer Space Treaty). Anyone else would need Russia’s permission.
Russia of course is presently incapable of doing such a mission, now or even in the future.
Live
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpfXyAfVBMU
https://phys.org/news/2025-05-soviet-era-spacecraft-plummet-earth.html
I wager fifteen qualtoos on just outside Baikonur, Kazakhstan. It’s coming home.
Not enough woolongs in the world to cover that bet.
“Any surviving wreckage will belong to Russia under a United Nations treaty.”
Not if it lands in my backyard. Finders keepers.
John: I’m not sure where your quote is from, but Russia won’t simply own the wreckage if it lands elsewhere, it will be responsible for any damages, as per the Outer Space Treaty.
Can’t find the quote now, I thought it was a space.com article.
A neat tracking map for Cosmos 482:
https://www.n2yo.com/?s=6073