Blair,

I think that we can agree that Americans *do* favor manned launches over unmanned, but Americans also want our rockets to be safe when they launch their crews. There are also a lot of advantage that we gain from our unmanned payloads; they are also very important, even if they are not as sexy or exciting. They are like the power plant; we don’t pay attention to them, either, but we all expect the lights to turn on at the flick of a wall switch.

The unmanned launches can be considered as “proving grounds” for the rockets and associated hardware. Once everyone is happy with the unmanned launches, then the hardware can be adapted for manned use.

The Atlas V is an example of a rocket that proved itself as reliable during unmanned use, so when commercial manned spacecraft were being planned, they chose that rocket.

The Air Force even requires a certain number of successful launches before they will allow their *unmanned* payloads on them. SpaceX recently had a public dispute about that.

I think that it is reasonable for us to expect the technology, not just the hardware, to be proven before we put people on board. That turned out to be a mistake with the Space Shuttle. It was not as ready for prime time as we were led to believe.

Maybe so, but I am still focused on the engineering that will come out of this, even if the XS-1 goes nowhere, as do most of these kinds of projects. A large number of the companies listed in this contract award are aggressively using this engineering to build manned vessels.

With respect, and I do mean respect, I think you may be overestimating the American public appetite for shooting unmanned cargo ships into orbit. The cultural landscape has changed from ‘can do’ to ‘what can you do for me’. As DK Williams points out, Shuttle was horrendously expensive, but could put seven people into orbit and 65,000 lbs of cargo. It could also return those same people and 35,000 lbs on a somewhat regular basis. Yes, the service record was spotty, but it did happen.

My thesis is that if you want to inspire the next generation, they need something more than ground control jobs.

The key here is the engineering. If an easily reusable first stage can be developed, even if it for unmanned payloads, that engineering will significantly lower the cost to orbit, which in turn will make manned payloads more affordable. Moreover, the science fiction nature of these reusable space planes makes them cool, which also gets the public excited.

Overall, I see no downside to any of this. When it comes to space exploration, we are beginning to move into very exciting times.