Peter Monta: “Africa had good conditions for humans; Europe and Asia were frigid hellholes by comparison. They were often so cold that water would freeze and fall out of the sky in solid form! Yet we went.”

I get your point, but you seem to be missing mine.

And PS: I am not anti-Elon, not by a long shot. Elon gets from point “A” looking to point “X” and goes where none other would normally go in his unique, unlimited and what must be recognized proven manner. He does not psychologically constrain himself. And he does it largely with his own money.

I am not saying to not go wherever humanity seeks to go in our solar system or beyond. Go stretch the envelope, take the risks and reap the rewards. But in getting from point “A” to point “X”, “X” being the ultimate imagined mental goal set. Sometimes you must settle for “L”, “M”, “N”, “O” or “P” based on certain natural barriers we as human beings are not at this moment in time able to overcome.

“X” being a future goal set to be someday overcome and achieved.

“You have to appreciate my point about living in space and on other planets that do not have the special unique conditions provided by the planet earth over the long term.”

Africa had good conditions for humans; Europe and Asia were frigid hellholes by comparison. They were often so cold that water would freeze and fall out of the sky in solid form! Yet we went.

This is not to be snarky but simply to point out that “unique conditions” are a long gradient from “ideal” to “empty vacuum” (and perhaps worse). Technology, whether it’s fire, clothing, air conditioning, or a space- or Mars-based habitat, expand our range, and I’m not sure there’s a point at which one can say “this far but no farther”.

Respectfully: Sentient / biological life in the context of our sun and our solar system is IMO constrained for certain fundamental and very unique reasons to planet earth and only planet earth as far as I can detect. And there may well be other aspects to existence that human beings may not be able to fully appreciate and understand, but that remains to be seen.

Life from planet earth may well visit and explore other planets and objects in our solar system but life will at least for the vast foreseeable future be multiplanetary only in the context of those visits. Again, in my what may be very naive opinion anyway.

What set me off on this subject was Elons statement that he was determined to go to Mars and establish a civilization there was due to the future known condition of our sun and its expansion and the assured obliteration of planet earth due to it.

BUT, what he does not say is that that event is fairly reliably calculated to occur more or less IN ONE BILLION YEARS.

And that is not real in the context of our planet, life, human civilization and the need to evacuate it because of that impending event. It is misleading. That is a PR sales job, again, in my possibly naive opinion. Even if the earth was struck by a massive asteroid, the best place for life / humanity to survive would still be planet earth.

“LIFE” as we know and understand it will never be “multi planetary” but it will be a visitor to other planets and objects in our solar system for sure. Either in person or through robotics and virtual reality / quantum enabled AI presence? (I am just imagining the potentials of exploration and “being there” now)

Maybe the title could have more accurately been: THE ROAD TO MAKING HUMAN CIVILIZATION MULTIPLANETARY

I do not think that I am splitting hairs here.

Richard M: My readers might be interested to know that there is some (but not much research) on the health consequences of lunar gravity. See this paper:

Lunar gravity prevents skeletal muscle atrophy but not myofiber type shift in mice

The citations at the end give a window on this research, which attempts to simulate lower gravity by mechanical means.

In my reading of this paper, I think it only gives us a hint at the impact lower gravity will have on the body, but only a very tiny hint. To really know will require research in that gravity, where animals and humans can behave normally.

So this remains a question mark. Will the effects be closer to that we have seen in microgravity, or closer to that in 1G? It looks increasingly like we are going to have to find out the hard way.

Longer-term, it would likely make more sense to build large-diameter rotating habs with floors slanted sufficiently to make them “flat” at rotation rates that produce a net 1-G. But doing this will first require that lunar and martian industrial and power infrastructure reach a certain minimum that will likely take some years to achieve.

But that does not change the fact that human beings are the product of earth and its special conditions that uniquely fosters life as I understand it.

You have to appreciate my point about living in space and on other planets that do not have the special unique conditions provided by the planet earth over the long term. No? Am I incorrect?

“Coming here to tell this audience that you have just discovered that weightlessness has serious medical consequences and that Musk and those enthused about space don’t know seem to know about it is quite hilarious.”.
 
What is so hilarious? I am not aware of anything that you have posted that counters my point about human beings, their biology, their ability in adapting to not normal conditions, evolution and the long term.

And I am not saying to not go to space or Mars or asteroids, not at all.

You can technically get there, but can you biologically live there over the long term successfully? Has that question really been fully answered? The basis of my observation? The “Lost” astronaut’s own testimony and bodily experience having spent just 9 months in space.

Not years in space, months. Maybe I am being naive?

If nothing else at least I am entertaining, you and your audience :)

Cotour: You amuse me. You regularly come to my site generally only to comment on political matters, which is great. You however often reveal that you don’t read much else on BtB, and in fact when you do comment on space/science matters you reveal you really don’t know much about such things, that your knowledge is superficial and solely web-based.

Coming here to tell this audience that you have just discovered that weightlessness has serious medical consequences and that Musk and those enthused about space don’t know seem to know about it is quite hilarious.

I’ve said this before: You might benefit from reading BtB sometimes. :)

As for your final question, yes, you are being too cautious and cynical. Humans are tool-makers and adapt. Finding ways to travel to other worlds and then making them livable will be exactly what we were created to do.

Good point, in the long term what “ISM” will the Mars colony run on?

Behave and do as you are mandated or fear execution? It is effective, ask the Taliban.

“What “ISM” is superior, given these three core human requirements:

1. You and your family live in relative peace, safety and free from fear of your government and its abuse of power.

2. You and your family live in relative personal freedom and Liberty in what you say, think and do.

3. You and your family have the opportunity to be as prosperous in your wealth and personal property as you are able.

Below I have listed essentially all of the forms of governance “ISMS” that have historically existed and have been employed over the last 5,000 or so years. Assuming that you agree with my 3 personal requirements for a governmental organization structure and the cold hard rules of existence, tell me in real terms, which one is superior to the Objectively constructed Constitutional system that embraces Capitalism?

Absolutism: Government by a single absolute ruler (Monarchy).

Socialism: Government by a centralized state control of wealth and property.

Communism: Government of a classless society where the individual cannot own property.

Anarchism: A doctrine where all government should be abolished. (Then what?)

Tribalism: Shared tribal or familial affiliation and association above all others.

Capitalism: A doctrine of private ownership and free markets should govern economies.

Constitutionalism: “the concept of the limitation of government based around the will of the people, is based upon the idea of a social contract. The government agrees to protect the interests, the lives, and the property of its citizens, and the people agree to support and sustain their government (Study.com)”

The big unknown is gravity. Mars is not the space station, but is its gravity sufficient? We just don’t know.

Or are they refusing to recognize the reality of the goal?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14761593/Major-health-update-NASA-stranded-astronauts.html

“The astronauts have been going through at least two hours of strength and conditioning training daily, working with NASA’s medical team to rebuild muscle mass, restore their balance in Earth’s gravity, and prevent further bone loss.”

“The fatigue and extreme muscle loss, seen in photos after their landing, left Williams unable to get out of bed easily for weeks after the space mission.”

Human beings evolve over thousands of generations and environmental changes that need adapting to, as I generally understand things. Are those who propose the settling of Mars choosing to ignore this hard to ignore fact of human biology on planet earth? Can this cold hard fact of human existence be accelerated in order to adapt to the increased radiation and gravity differences on the planet Mars? And that is not taking into consideration the non existence of a breathable atmosphere among several other extreme concerns.

Not to mention this psychological potential: “You’re thrown together day and night seven days a week at 24 hours a day, and just like any family there’s a point where something rubs you the wrong way or something – that happens anywhere,’ Wilmore noted.”

And this is not based on multiple years this is based on mere months in space.

Am I just being a bit too cautious and cynical here?

People love concepts, that is what progress is based on, but there comes a line where technology just may not be able to overcome evolution. There is a plethora of life on earth for a very specific reason.

And I am not saying to not attempt going there, but there is a line IMO.

I was struck by his last remark, about societal formation on Mars. And, how it harkens to the message of Mr. Zimmerman’s book Conscious Choice. I pray they get that part right.

SD-HLLVs should have come earlier–built by a different company.

Now for Elon to used Zubrin ‘s ISRU methods to make methane–he is going to have to handle hydrogen at some point.

Zubrin is in no way a lefty.

My guess is that he figures he might get DNC support for SLS (union workers and all) if he can sell his Mars Direct as a way to do an end run around Elon, so he will buddy-buddy with the DNC if he has to.

Zubrin will have a win either way.
If we get an administration flip–and if Starship proves a failure–Zubrin will play up Marshall. If Democrats burn Teslas and buy inefficient gas guzzlers–sell SLS the same way.

If the DNC falters and Republicans stay in office, then Starship/SuperHeavy will have extra time to fly and Musk will build all that ISRU stuff without Zubrin having to beg another Sam Brownback for a NASA boost.

Government funding has become irrelevant. Government interference is still something that can’t be consigned to irrelevance.

He appears to be the most studied in on the Mars mission situation.

He does not exactly agree with Musk on all things Mars.