FAA delays launch license approval of next Starship/Superheavy test launch until late November
The White House to SpaceX: “Great business you got there! Really be
a shame if something happened to it!”
According to an update today on SpaceX’s Starship webpage, the FAA has told the company to not expect a launch license for its next Starship/Superheavy orbital test launch until late November.
We recently received a launch license date estimate of late November from the FAA, the government agency responsible for licensing Starship flight tests. This is a more than two-month delay to the previously communicated date of mid-September. This delay was not based on a new safety concern, but instead driven by superfluous environmental analysis. The four open environmental issues are illustrative of the difficulties launch companies face in the current regulatory environment for launch and reentry licensing.
This two month delay is actually a four month delay, since SpaceX had previously stated it was ready to launch in early August. At the time it appeared it would have Superheavy once again do a soft splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico. Because of this situation, the company has now decided to attempt a chopstick capture landing at the launch tower at Boca Chica. Since it can’t launch, it is spending this time preparing for that more daring flight program.
SpaceX’s update goes into great detail about the absurdity of this delay, noting how it seems to have been instigated by anti-SpaceX news report from CNBC that included significant false information. The company notes at length how it has done everything requested of it by various government agencies, including the FAA, the EPA, Fish & Wildlife, and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), including doing testing of the potable water used in the launchpad deluge system. At every stage these agencies agreed that the deluge system “would not cause environmental harm.”
The subsequent fines levied on SpaceX by TCEQ and the EPA are entirely tied to disagreements over paperwork. We chose to settle so that we can focus our energy on completing the missions and commitments that we have made to the U.S. government, commercial customers, and ourselves. Paying fines is extremely disappointing when we fundamentally disagree with the allegations, and we are supported by the fact that EPA has agreed that nothing about the operation of our flame deflector will need to change. Only the name of the permit has changed. [emphasis in original]
The late November date is also significant in that it pushes the test launch back until after the election, and strongly suggests that politics are involved. The Democrats who control the White House are very hostile to Musk, and are quite willing to do whatever they can to hurt him. It seems to me that they are telling him — and everyone else — that they want that test launch delayed until after the election so that if they win, they will then be in a position to stymie Musk entirely, and maybe forever.
Hat tip to reader Gary.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
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The White House to SpaceX: “Great business you got there! Really be
a shame if something happened to it!”
According to an update today on SpaceX’s Starship webpage, the FAA has told the company to not expect a launch license for its next Starship/Superheavy orbital test launch until late November.
We recently received a launch license date estimate of late November from the FAA, the government agency responsible for licensing Starship flight tests. This is a more than two-month delay to the previously communicated date of mid-September. This delay was not based on a new safety concern, but instead driven by superfluous environmental analysis. The four open environmental issues are illustrative of the difficulties launch companies face in the current regulatory environment for launch and reentry licensing.
This two month delay is actually a four month delay, since SpaceX had previously stated it was ready to launch in early August. At the time it appeared it would have Superheavy once again do a soft splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico. Because of this situation, the company has now decided to attempt a chopstick capture landing at the launch tower at Boca Chica. Since it can’t launch, it is spending this time preparing for that more daring flight program.
SpaceX’s update goes into great detail about the absurdity of this delay, noting how it seems to have been instigated by anti-SpaceX news report from CNBC that included significant false information. The company notes at length how it has done everything requested of it by various government agencies, including the FAA, the EPA, Fish & Wildlife, and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), including doing testing of the potable water used in the launchpad deluge system. At every stage these agencies agreed that the deluge system “would not cause environmental harm.”
The subsequent fines levied on SpaceX by TCEQ and the EPA are entirely tied to disagreements over paperwork. We chose to settle so that we can focus our energy on completing the missions and commitments that we have made to the U.S. government, commercial customers, and ourselves. Paying fines is extremely disappointing when we fundamentally disagree with the allegations, and we are supported by the fact that EPA has agreed that nothing about the operation of our flame deflector will need to change. Only the name of the permit has changed. [emphasis in original]
The late November date is also significant in that it pushes the test launch back until after the election, and strongly suggests that politics are involved. The Democrats who control the White House are very hostile to Musk, and are quite willing to do whatever they can to hurt him. It seems to me that they are telling him — and everyone else — that they want that test launch delayed until after the election so that if they win, they will then be in a position to stymie Musk entirely, and maybe forever.
Hat tip to reader Gary.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Bob – I agree with your fundamental analysis. To flesh it out more I would add.
If the election goes the wrong way for Musk (and all of the rest of us), the delay will then feed into a multi-prong attack on Musk across all his enterprises, SpaceX, Tesla, Boring, former Twitter now X.
Musk would have to become less outspoken and more compliant with the regime political / social / economic doctrine or risk being forced out (or taken out, if he is placed in prison) by Boards of Directors frightened by the impact on business.
In either case, the “pace of space” will likely slow. I watched us walk on the moon as a high school kid, I had strong hopes to see us back on the moon as a senior citizen and at least some small hope to see us walk on Mars before I died.
The Moon, never mind Mars, slips further away from us. I will redouble my effort but worry that we are entering a dark period of time despite our best efforts. All the best to you and also to your group of very informed commentators.
Doubting Thomas: In regards to this story, I have one regret as a space journalist. I should have predicted this delay until after November back in August. It was becoming obvious then, but I did not do the little extra thinking necessary to see it at that time. I usually do, but this time I dropped the ball. :)
This delay was not based on a new safety concern, but instead driven by superfluous environmental analysis. The four open environmental issues are illustrative of the difficulties launch companies face in the current regulatory environment for launch and reentry licensing.
This is unusually blunt public comment from SpaceX about regulatory matters.
But I share their frustration.
Musk is safe.
He has enough cash to stay safe and his companies are wanted and needed by the US government. Even if the dems do not want to pay him for anything they will eventually have to one way or another.
They will eventually pay him for Ev charging stations. He is essentially the best one doing it and has the force of mass. All other EV car companies either use his system of offer converters.
They will end up paying him for internet access through his starlink system. The military wants it, the state department wants it, and the government has already allocated the cash for civilian access.
The government really really needs his launch company. They are pretty much the only ones who are making monthly launches and they have the ability to change payloads and fit quick launches in when needed. The Space Force is already planning on using all of their proposed launch vehicles.
Plus other allied nations who want to use Space X will put pressure on the US government.
And he can always drop back and just payoff the correct politicians.
Environmental problems are just part of doing business these days. I am surprised that his battery plant is not surrounded by and under siege from activists.
Wow, I just read the whole statement. This is just brutal. “[T]he licensing process has been repeatedly derailed by issues ranging from the frivolous to the patently absurd.”
But I don’t disagree with a word of it.
Elon is screwed. He is supporting Trump and allowing X to be used for free speech. The Democrats want Elon’s head on a pike either figuratively or physically. I fully expect to see the next launch of Starship to be delayed well into 2025 if not stopped forever.
If Trump can “beat-the-cheat” things may clear up for Elon. After the comments by Riech and McNamee that were reported a day or two ago here on BtB, Elon may be arrested and prosecuted if Harris is “elected” with that bump of 10s of thousands of “votes” in the wee morning hours of November 6th. That’s what happens to your opponents in the “transformed” USA.
I should have predicted this delay until after November back in August.
I disagree. It would have sounded paranoid, then. Now the delay is fact and your speculation as to why sounds more reasonable (if still a bit paranoid, which doesn’t mean “wrong”).
Bob – I respectfully disagree. I think all of us keep having that feeling that “it can’t get crazier” and then it does. I will keep coming to your site. I am pouring myself an iced tea and sitting down to read: “The reasons why Mars two polar caps are so different”
pzatchok – Musk might be “safe” in one view. Bend the knee, pay off the “Big Guy” or “Big Guys” and things will go on. But they will go on at a far slower pace and will get more and more distorted by the regime political / social / economic doctrines. Worse, Musk may have the money to payoff the economic rent seekers and protect himself from crazy prosecution, but we little guys don’t have those resources.
Worse, my time is running out rapidly and I want to see us walk on the moon again.
Very brazen of the FAA. Politically, the democrats have no choice but to block launches until after the election. If the next flight is a spectacular success that significantly boosts the public awareness and positive regard for Elon. Which in turns gains swing voters for Trump. Will be very interested to hear what the NSF guys have to say.
Steve Richter, being a longtime poster at NSF, I’ll tell you flat out most everyone there including the oldtimers and mgmt will downplay the FAA’s and EPA’s intransigence. It’s by far the best space hangout on the web, but it’s got the same problem as Ars Technica and such–techies tend to go left, like most other college-educated folks. And, the site was started in England. Most Europeans have fallen for the “extreme right wing” slur, and that’s that.
I do give NSF credit though–unlike Ars, they prohibit overt politicking in the regular forums. The only place to opine thusly is in a subscription subforum.
Doubting Thomas
If you do not have the juice your not worth the squeeze, so do not worry unless you take a very anti government role.
It boggles my mind that I’m saying this, but at this point I honestly believe that in a Harris administration, both Trump and Elon will end up in prison. SpaceX and Tesla will either continue to provide critical services to the government, lose control of their IP, or get nationalized. The whole Superheavy/Starship program will come to an end. At this point, the Democrat party and the liberal establishment have shown that they are entirely interested in their own power and control, and destroying any threat to their power and control is vastly more important to them than getting anything done. They are basically the exact opposite of the “I like food more than I hate rich people” meme, blaming and destroying their enemies for all their problems is all they care about, actually solving problems and maintaining a functional civilization isn’t even on their radar.
I think Mr. Richter has hit the nail on the head. The current Administration wants nothing even vaguely positive about Trump in the news and SpaceX has been tarred with that brush. SpaceX’s quiet competency has also embarrassed folks favored by the administration (Boeing and Blue Origin). Add to that X/Twitter refusing to bend to the administration and I would not expect to see a Starship 5 launch date before November 7th. Should some miracle occur and Trump is elected in some massive landslide that date will continue to slide until after January 20th 2025 simply out of spite unless the jellyfish at FAA fold.
Not to excuse the democrats, but I think SpaceX will be able to launch more frequently in 2025. There are multiple constituent groups in the democrat party which are in it for the money. And an operational Starship program will generate a lot of money. If Harris wins, the establishment will be super confident they can continue to win national elections. So what is the point of bothering with what is said on Twitter? The federal administrators will figure out ways to legally get money from SpaceX for themselves. The launch services SpaceX provides to defense and science agencies throw off huge amounts of cash. In the face of all of that, the FWS does not stand a chance. You can even argue that environmental groups are aging out and losing influence just as quickly as conservative nationalists.
Conservative nationalist have the same concerns that old Democrats had in overseas adventurism–seeing Kamala supported by warmonger Cheney’s has got to be galling.
The DNC has got to go back to its own populist roots–trying to take folks gas stoves won’t fly.
If Harris wins the election, Musk and Trump will be put in prison, SpaceX will be nationalized, and Twitter will be run by Nina Jankowicz.
This election is no longer just about whether America survives. It’s become a question of whether humanity will die here on Earth or expand to the stars.
Tall Dave, it is generally referred to as The Last Election That Matters: When a nation votes itself into a permanent state of servitude to a totalitarian elite, with further “elections” held from time to time which always show 99% of the “votes” going to the State. I tend to believe this took place for us in the wee hours of November 3-4, 2020 when hundreds of thousands of ballots were added to the counts in multiple States, with no observation by anyone save the “elections” staff. Once power was secured, they moved to consolidate. This upcoming “election” will merely be more of the same, perhaps even more brazen than the last time. They will point to it as proof of their “popularity” and claim “a mandate from the people.” It gets worse from there…
Strongmen brook no opposition. Those that fear Elon or Trump being jailed are correct: They will be. “Show me the man…” If the Regime does indeed do what I fear they will, our Republic is at an end. We’re at that point in Roman history when Marius began his proscriptions…
Regarding the environmental impact of a super heavy rocket launch, how does it compare to the daily pollutants emitted from a busy US airport? Or a heavily used interstate highway? Does the EPA and FWS have objections which block the carpeting of thousands of acres of open space land with solar panels?
The FAA last night finally made a public statement, responding to a query from the guys at NASASpaceflight:
https://x.com/BCCarCounters/status/1833960344886063318
It’s terse bureaucratese, with no real detail, and defensive, too: “SpaceX chose to modify” its its vehicle configuration and mission profile for its license, “which triggered a more in-depth review.” In addition, the FAA says, “SpaceX submitted new information in mid-August detailing how the environmental impact of Flight 5 will cover a larger area than previously reviewed.”
Read all of it at the link.
Hmm, isn’t SPACEX due to RESCUE those two STRANDED Scientists some time NEXT YEAR? Will they be given the same scrutiny THEN?? Doubt it even if the most devastating event happens in November! No, this is nothing but POLITICAL PAYBACK for his support of PRESIDENT TRUMP and Our Nation! DEMOcrats hate a WINNER! They are basically self loathing creatures who live in the misery of their OWN MINDS! They are MISERABLE and their ONLY “jollies” come from making YOU miserable! It’s simply a Mental Illness to “think” like a DEMOcrat! The PETTINESS of the Deep State and it’s PUPPETS are behind all this crap – no wonder they go the the lengths they do to keep PRESIDENT TRUMP from destroying them!!