Has the FAA grounded SpaceX?
The FAA statement yesterday seemed quite clear — that the agency was grounding all SpaceX launches until the investigation into the failed landing of a Falcon 9 first stage was completed. That clarity was further accepted by numerous news organizations today, all of which clearly described in their reporting the FAA’s action as a grounding of further SpaceX launches for an unspecified amount of time, from days to weeks. (See here, here, and here for just a few examples.)
Nonetheless, there are strong indications that the FAA’s grounding will be very short. For example, though no dates are presently firm, SpaceX continues to list at least two Starlink launches as well as the Polaris Dawn private manned mission as targeting launches over the next few days, with one Starlink launch still aiming for a 10:18 pm (Pacific) launch tonight from Vandenberg. That liftoff might be tentative, but that SpaceX is still pushing for that launch date suggests it is trying to pressure the FAA to back off.
And SpaceX has good reason to expect that pressure to work. The FAA has already admitted there were no public safety issues from the first stage failure. In the past it has allowed launches to proceed under that condition, even if the investigation was on-going. SpaceX is almost certainly making this point known to the FAA, if its managers don’t know it already. We will find out I think by the end of today.
Even if the FAA backs down, that it even attempted any grounding in this situation was an egregious abuse of its regulatory power. There was no rational reason for it to even hint at doing so, even based on its own regulations as well as its statutory authority. If the goal was to do its job and not to harass SpaceX and Elon Musk, it would have immediately announced that no grounding was required because no issues of public safety were involved in the failure. Instead, it pushed its power, forcing SpaceX to push back.
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The FAA statement yesterday seemed quite clear — that the agency was grounding all SpaceX launches until the investigation into the failed landing of a Falcon 9 first stage was completed. That clarity was further accepted by numerous news organizations today, all of which clearly described in their reporting the FAA’s action as a grounding of further SpaceX launches for an unspecified amount of time, from days to weeks. (See here, here, and here for just a few examples.)
Nonetheless, there are strong indications that the FAA’s grounding will be very short. For example, though no dates are presently firm, SpaceX continues to list at least two Starlink launches as well as the Polaris Dawn private manned mission as targeting launches over the next few days, with one Starlink launch still aiming for a 10:18 pm (Pacific) launch tonight from Vandenberg. That liftoff might be tentative, but that SpaceX is still pushing for that launch date suggests it is trying to pressure the FAA to back off.
And SpaceX has good reason to expect that pressure to work. The FAA has already admitted there were no public safety issues from the first stage failure. In the past it has allowed launches to proceed under that condition, even if the investigation was on-going. SpaceX is almost certainly making this point known to the FAA, if its managers don’t know it already. We will find out I think by the end of today.
Even if the FAA backs down, that it even attempted any grounding in this situation was an egregious abuse of its regulatory power. There was no rational reason for it to even hint at doing so, even based on its own regulations as well as its statutory authority. If the goal was to do its job and not to harass SpaceX and Elon Musk, it would have immediately announced that no grounding was required because no issues of public safety were involved in the failure. Instead, it pushed its power, forcing SpaceX to push back.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
One solution comes to mind if Harris wins. Lori Garver, FAA administrator. She believes in the private sector & risk taking. She likes DEIA but that is a given with the Democrats. That is, it’s a solution if the administrator has real power. Does it?
“… There was no rational reason for it to even hint at doing so, even based on its own regulations as well as its statutory authority …”
as annoying, self interested and goading are Feds toward SpaceX, they are much preferred compared to international oversight. Think of an EU led coalition of regulators, environmental groups and equity concerns which would love to slow the advance of private enterprise in space. What Bernie Sanders had to say on the Senate floor a few years ago was chilling. May the almighty help us in case President Harris holds some thoughts on the matter.
Just thinking that maybe the FAA can be seen as a firewall which blocks much more harmful interests from shutting down the work of SpaceX.
Latest from Jared Isaacman. –
https://x.com/rookisaacman/status/1829230986128962029?s=46
” if Harris wins” means selection of the NASA Administrator will be the least of the world’s problems.
Sure hate to see them fail to break 100 because of this
”And SpaceX has good reason to expect that pressure to work.”
No, such pressure is likely to have a negative effect, like Varda trying to “pressure” the FAA into granting a re-entry license by launching without one. Now Varda can’t even launch until it has its re-entry license already in-hand.
”In the past it has allowed launches to proceed under that condition, even if the investigation was on-going.”
And that’s what is likely to happen in this case as well once the investigation gets far enough along to isolate the fault to the landing system or state, assuming that it does.
”…no grounding was required because no issues of public safety were involved in the failure.”
You don’t know that. No one does. All that is known is that there was a failure of the entry, descent, and landing of a multi-ton vehicle. No one knows what that failure was and what the implications of that failure are yet. Once those things are known it is almost certain that SpaceX will be allowed to launch again. In fact, they will most likely be allowed to launch again without those things being known if they can isolate the cause to a landing-only system or state.
Everyone got all over the FAA for not grounding the 737 Max until the second fatal accident, and that was a plane with only a 1 in 300,000 failure rate. So the FAA changed its regulations, and now the Falcon 9 is grounded with a 1 in 286 landing failure rate — a failure rate literally a thousand times worse. That may be overreach, but it’s the logical outcome of the panic generated over the 737 Max issue.
To Cloudy
FAA won’t go to Garver–more like Ralph Nader…
This was a landing equipment failure.
On a cargo only first stage.
And it didn’t really crash it just fell over. Now no one more than Space X wants to know exactly why. Did the leg not lock out or did it bend or crush or break off?
All the parts are heavy enough to not get totally burned up in that fire, so something will be recoverable.
I just can not see why a total shutdown is needed and the investigation should pretty much be done as soon as they can get their hands on the wreckage..
The REASON is OBVIOUS ! MR. MUSK has ENDORSED PRESIDENT TRUMP! Petty VENGEANCE is MINE – sayeth the DEMOcrats!!!
BLSinSC: I’ve said this to you before but it needs saying again. Using CAPS (which on the internet comes across as screaming) does not make your comment more convincing. Instead, it does the opposite.
I am not telling you this because I disagree with you (I don’t) but because I want you to be more convincing. Your continous use of CAPS is counter-productive. Your comment here would be entirely more effective without any CAPS at all.
It Reminds me of the random Capitalization in ye olde Documents, but with new, improved EM-FA-SIS!
At least We know it’s not a Stuck CAPS LOCK Key. You may have created a Monster. I rather enjoy This Formatting.
If you eat this in moderation, I understand – but You got to see It.
So I’m hearing the public safety determination has already been made. Can anyone confirm?
Yup. The FAA sent a statement to NASASpaceFlight a couple hours ago: They’re back in business.
https://x.com/BCCarCounters/status/1829647053091455370
SpaceX made the request yesterday, and the FAA granted it today. Eric Berger turned out to be right.
SpaceX wasted no time in responding: “Targeting back-to-back Falcon 9 launches tonight from California and Florida → http://spacex.com/launches/”
Starlink Group 9-5 and Starlink Group 8-10 will be launching in the wee hours at 12:58am and 3:43am respectively.