That would of course first need there to BE any American companies that could offer competing services. First launch of commercial crews not for abut 4-5 years – add a couple years to certify and be ready to carry folks — course the stations not scheduled to stil be flying then.

Then of course you’d need to be cost competitive. Each Falcon/Dragon launch costs NASA $400 M in total costs (no Bob, $140M is just the launch cost paid to SpaceX, not the total costs to NASA.) so if they lift 4 folks a trip – $100M a seat for NASA. More then that could exceed ISS’ carrying capacity, but if you assume 6 passengers, its still $67M per seat, compared to the russians $70.6 million per seat, assuming no price increases at all to fly crew vrs cargo on a flight – and assuming ISS can suppoprt 6 and has lifeboat capacity for them.

I think the Russians have judged the market correctly.

My sister, Arline, will agree with you, I’m sure. She’s living out in Suarita right at the desert’s edge. Plus the array of stars visible in our small neighborhood in the spiral arm of the Milky Way from Arizona is spectacular beyond description! The average New Yorker who’s never been outside city limits would probably think there are only between 18 and 20 stars in visible range of our side of the Earth, LOL!

Hope you’ll shoot me an email when you get a chance so I can give you my new number. Otherwise I’d have to quote from one of Mr. Herzberg’s favorite western movie lines, “What kind of a man are you, Zimmerman?”

LOL! Love ya, Bob!

Yo Mike,

To quote Bob Herzberg, “Whatever.”

Seriously, glad to hear from you. I hope all is well in New York, though I can tell you without doubt that things are better here in Arizona.

Always a pleasure to hear you on the radio and I miss your wonderful laugh. Let’s all do dinner when you’re in New York.

Mike Fass
Zangief from “Street Fighter: The Later Years”

SpaceX and Orbital Sciences are about to discover what a “contract” with the government actually means.