Kazakhstan denies rumors that Russia plans to abandon Baikonur
In response to reports in its local press that Russia was going to pull out of the Baikonur spaceport in the next three years, two decades before its lease expires in 2050, the Kazakhstan government yesterday issued a denial.
Local media in Kazakhstan have reported that Russia could exit the lease between 2026 and 2028 as it pulls back from international space cooperation, including a planned withdrawal from the International Space Station (ISS) as early as 2028.
“The question of early termination of the lease, or transfer of the city of Baikonur to the full control of the Kazakh side, is not being considered at this time,” Kazakhstan’s Aerospace Committee told AFP.
There rumors however could have real merit. Once ISS is retired, the Russians will have little reason to use Baikonur. It is almost certain it will not have launched its own replacement station by then, and Baikonur’s high latitude location will make its use with any other station difficult if not impossible. Moreover, the effort to switch to its Angara rocket favors launches from the Vostochny and Plesetsk spaceports, both of which have launchpads built for that rocket.
Finally, Russia has not had the cash to upgrade the launchpads at Baikonur, so much so that it has often been late paying Kazakhstan its annual $115 million rental fee, delays which at one point caused Kazakhstan to seize the launchpad Russia was upgrading for its proposed new Soyuz-5 rocket.
In fact, Russia might not be able to afford Baikonur at all, based on its present finances and the cost of its stupid war in the Ukraine.
We shall not get clarity on this story for at least a year or so, but stay tuned. Nothing is certain.
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In response to reports in its local press that Russia was going to pull out of the Baikonur spaceport in the next three years, two decades before its lease expires in 2050, the Kazakhstan government yesterday issued a denial.
Local media in Kazakhstan have reported that Russia could exit the lease between 2026 and 2028 as it pulls back from international space cooperation, including a planned withdrawal from the International Space Station (ISS) as early as 2028.
“The question of early termination of the lease, or transfer of the city of Baikonur to the full control of the Kazakh side, is not being considered at this time,” Kazakhstan’s Aerospace Committee told AFP.
There rumors however could have real merit. Once ISS is retired, the Russians will have little reason to use Baikonur. It is almost certain it will not have launched its own replacement station by then, and Baikonur’s high latitude location will make its use with any other station difficult if not impossible. Moreover, the effort to switch to its Angara rocket favors launches from the Vostochny and Plesetsk spaceports, both of which have launchpads built for that rocket.
Finally, Russia has not had the cash to upgrade the launchpads at Baikonur, so much so that it has often been late paying Kazakhstan its annual $115 million rental fee, delays which at one point caused Kazakhstan to seize the launchpad Russia was upgrading for its proposed new Soyuz-5 rocket.
In fact, Russia might not be able to afford Baikonur at all, based on its present finances and the cost of its stupid war in the Ukraine.
We shall not get clarity on this story for at least a year or so, but stay tuned. Nothing is certain.
Readers!
My annual February birthday fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now over. Thank you to everyone who donated or subscribed. While not a record-setter, the donations were more than sufficient and slightly above average.
As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
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Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Minor edit in first paragraph: ” lease expires in 2050″
Andi: Fixed. Thank you.
I suspect that the Kazakh government denial is *technically* true, but it is also hard to think that Roscosmos isn’t looking for ways to wind down its presence at Baikonur, an ageing launch facility in a foreign nation . . . the operation of which poses increasing political complications.
And which, if we are being cynical, does not offer the same opportunities for graft as, say, Vostochny.
I do hope that the most historic facilities could be preserved for posterity. I’m not very sanguine about that, however.
I wonder if Ukraine could sneak a team in and use a drone to take out the rocket or payload before it gets into Kazakhstan?
I suspect Baikonur is on the way out, but use of it will trail off rather gradually over quite a few years. It’s the only Russian launch site that can currently reach ISS, so it will remain in use for as long as the Russian side of ISS does. It’s also the only launch site that can launch a Proton, so it will also hang on as long as Proton does.
How long that will be is the big open question. There are only ten Protons left, but the payloads for those vehicles are many years behind schedule due to Western sanctions. Kazakhstan had put a calendar limit on Proton launches from its territory because its fuel and oxidizer are so nasty, but since Proton launches are so far behind schedule they agreed to let Russia fly out the ten remaining Protons no matter how long it takes.
But after that Proton is done. The Angara replacement will fly from Plesetsk and Vostochny, so Baikonur will no longer be needed.
So start the countdown. Every Proton launch and every Russian ISS launch brings Baikonur one step closer to closure.
mkent: It has been my understanding that the Proton is essentially retired, even though there are a number still in storage. There have been no Proton launches since 2023, and according to this report from later in 2023, the only way they could fly is if Kazakhstan approved. Roscosmos though opposed launching these Protons, favoring the shift to Angara.
Since then there has been no follow-up, which suggests to me no agreement was ever made, and those remaining Protons won’t fly.
Richard M,
Can’t disagree with any of that. Just more indications that Russia’s long, slow recessional from its former status as a space power will continue to an inevitable conclusion. Once Russia departs the ISS, whether in 2028, 2029 or 2030, it will cease having any manned space program or any civil space program of any consequence. Assuming the Putin regime has not collapsed by then due to the consequences of its epic misadventure in and around Ukraine, Russia will be doing well to continue a bare bones program of replenishment of its dwindling milsat constellation. If the Putin regime does collapse, of course, things will likely very quickly be even worse in Russia where space – and most everything else – is concerned.
pzatchok,
If Ukraine is looking for space/rocketry targets, Baikonur would be pretty much last on the list. It has no military significance, it’s a long way away from Ukraine and it is in a country that is not Russia. As the Kazakhs still regard it as an asset, Ukraine could also expect no local help with such a mission and, indeed, could expect considerable local opposition – especially after the fact.
Vostochny is too far away to be hit with anything the Ukrainians have in their current arsenal or with anything of greater range they might reasonably field over the next year or two. Plesetsk would be the most consequential space launch target Ukraine could choose and is within previously demonstrated range of Ukraine’s longest-range drones.
More interestingly, there are also a number of Russian ICBM bases within range of Ukrainian drones including Dombarovskiy, which is also occasionally used for launches of satellites.
Extant Ukrainian long-range drones could inflict damage to surface structures at such bases, but not to the missile silos. But Ukraine has a lot of recent experience using small drones to drop shaped-charge munitions onto the tops of armored vehicles with high precision. Building a really big multi-copter drone that could carry a big shaped charge of, say, a ton or more and drop or even land it accurately on a missile silo lid, is certainly within current Ukrainian development capabilities. If such a vehicle with a 1,000+ mile range was developed, Ukraine would be able to hold a significant fraction of Russian strategic nuclear missile silos at risk. It could also be used effectively against Russian submarines and warships of all classes when they are in port – as they typically are these days.
The demonstrated high porosity of Russian anti-air defenses and their vulnerabilities to Ukrainian strikes with already-extant classes of drones makes hitting strategic weapons bases an increasingly doable proposition. If the Russians persist in keeping their fruitless war going, Ukraine can be expected to put more and more of Russia’s military assets, of all types, at risk.
I would, frankly, be astonished if the Ukrainian defense apparat is not, even now working feverishly on weaponry to address the sorts of missions I’ve outlined here.