Long March 5B core stage crash window narrows to 12 hours
The Aerospace Corporation has now narrowed its predicted window for the uncontrolled re-entry of the core stage of China’s Long March 5B, launched on July 24th, to twelve hours, centered over southeast China in the early morning hours of July 31st.
The window still covers almost all inhabitable places on Earth. It will also narrow considerably in the next 24 hours, though not enough to make a reliable precise prediction until just prior to re-entry.
Just remember: China will repeat this farce in October, when it launches the next module to its Tiangong space station.
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The Aerospace Corporation has now narrowed its predicted window for the uncontrolled re-entry of the core stage of China’s Long March 5B, launched on July 24th, to twelve hours, centered over southeast China in the early morning hours of July 31st.
The window still covers almost all inhabitable places on Earth. It will also narrow considerably in the next 24 hours, though not enough to make a reliable precise prediction until just prior to re-entry.
Just remember: China will repeat this farce in October, when it launches the next module to its Tiangong space station.
Readers!
Every February I run a fund-raising drive during my birthday month. This year I celebrate my 72nd birthday, and hope and plan to continue writing and posting on Behind the Black for as long as I am able.
I hope my readers will support this effort. As I did in my November fund-raising drive, I am offering autographed copies of my books for large donations. Donate $250 and you can have a choice of the hardback of either Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 or Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space. Donate $200 and you can get an autographed paperback copy of either.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Klimate Kooks – We can trust China to live up to its commitments to reduce fossil fuel usage. They signed a Treaty!
The map now showing at Aerospace Corp is no longer centered over southeast China, but earlier in the same orbit, over the southwest Indian Ocean.
Ray Van Dune: As we get closer, that map will change almost hourly.
Here I go again.
Hit my house baby. My insurance will pay off and I bet the Chinese government will chuck in a nice sorry bonus.
If the Chinese do not pay up I will just take them to court and let our state department pay me and they can collect from the Chinese.
pzatchok. China ;s reply to you, quotes Rhett Butler’s reply to Scarlet O’Hara
Yes, Bob, I fully understand the predicted entry point will change, but I find following the pattern of that change fascinating! It is now centered over the Indian Ocean more or less due south of the Indian subcontinent.
I am watching for any indication of a migration that might indicate a control input from a de-orbit burn. A slight retrograde burn would move it into the vast southern Atlantic / Indian oceans, but it may be well positioned if it stays where it is.
Ray Van Dune: I am almost 100% positive that China cannot do any kind of controlled re-entry. 1. If they had that ability, wouldn’t they announce it loudly, to prevent the bad publicity they are now getting? 2. Any controlled re-entry would bring the stage down within one orbit.
Note that the centerpoint you see now over the Indian Ocean is merely that, the centerpoint. Aerospace makes if very clear that the re-entry could happen anywhere along the line. The centerpoint is not a favored spot.
Bob, in a previous comment on another post, I explained why I thought the Chinese would only claim success AFTER a controlled de-orbit, and in the case of a failure, likely say nothing. I do not believe they possess the required self-assurance to do as you say and announce the attempt in advance.
With respect to the mid-point, it is statistically significant, and the more effective the technology used (greater thrust) I would expect the range of error +- that point would be lessened. What the ultimate precision could be I cannot imagine, but obviously manned capsules routinely achieve virtually pinpoint accuracy in descending from orbit, albeit with the use of systems that might not be justified for a defunct object.
I have been objective and polite in making my views known, but I think that I will not comment further. We shall see what happens.
Ray Van Dune: Forgive me if my responses appeared rude. They were not meant that way.
Bob, thanks for your considerate words – I only hope I was not overly sensitive.
Said the bully to the meek: _whadya yoo gonna do abou’ dit?_
Nothing you can do about it. They answer only to themselves. When the rest of you are in the way, so what?
If the debris hits a Chinese space facility, I’m going to church next Sunday.
If the debris hits the Capitol during a J6 hearing, look for charges of Trump-Chinese collusion in 3 … 2 … 1 …
“Controlled Precision Re-Entry”
https://youtu.be/S-V6MZlyCqE
2:22
Wayne, your link reminded me of the fact that, had the Cold War gone hot, the plains states and western Canada would have been pockmarked with the craters left by expended Minuteman (and a few Titan) stages.
Of course, that would have been the least of our worries.