Comments on: NASA IG: Artemis manned lunar landing will likely not happen in ’25

By: markedup2

markedup2 — Tue, 16 Nov 2021 17:49:51 +0000

Neither the orbital Starship flight nor in-orbit refueling are done deals, yet. I like to think SpaceX will get it done, but that’s hope, not fact (yet).

Given the Russian test (from after this post), having giant tanks of pressurized anything in orbit seems risky. Puncturing one will send it spinning into who knows what – and it’s not small. On the other hand, “unmanned” doesn’t mean “uncontrolled”. Perhaps thrusters could stabilize it. On the gripping hand, while it’s just waiting in orbit, it doesn’t need to be pressurized. IIRC, pressurization is done with some sort of bladder than inflates as the tank empties. Or does it? LOX will not stay liquid without pressure, will it?

By: Cluebat

Cluebat — Tue, 16 Nov 2021 16:14:56 +0000

I wouldn’t count on Musk to save us. They have already chased him out of California.

He could reboot somewhere else and still beat the competition.

I wouldn’t blame him one bit.

By: David M. Cook

David M. Cook — Tue, 16 Nov 2021 09:09:49 +0000

Robert you are correct, but despite all the glowing press releases NASA is leaving a track record that can‘t be ignored. Every single large program has been way over budget & late! NASA has no need to be careful with the public‘s money and folks now know this.

By: Jeff Wright

Jeff Wright — Tue, 16 Nov 2021 06:24:55 +0000

Vulcan is the rocket Boeing wants to build. Musk has overpromised dates, so let’s shut that down and put folks out of work too? I’ll support the system that has an escape tower.

By: cloudy

cloudy — Tue, 16 Nov 2021 03:33:06 +0000

For Spacex’s lander to work, they have to achieve a regular and high launch cadence with Starship. Often it takes a long time after the first successful launch to achieve this. 2025 would be a pretty ambitious target even if it is assumed that all goes well with SLS/Orion.

The main ace Elon has up his sleeve is this – he can take more risks. Every SLS flight HAS to succeed. Spacex can establish Starship’s reliability while launching Starlinks, and does not have to launch with people on board.

By: wayne

wayne — Tue, 16 Nov 2021 02:32:19 +0000

Elon Musk / Akira the Don
“Among The Stars” ?? (2018)
https://youtu.be/9qWyfOaYWtU
5:16

By: Apoapsis

Apoapsis — Tue, 16 Nov 2021 02:03:07 +0000

If SpaceX wanted to embarrass NASA and generate even more animus from congress I’d bet they could pretty easily put together a manned landing at a Lunar pole well before 2025. Musk is walking a bit of a knife edge, trying to maintain good relations with the bureaucracy while pushing so hard on the technology, where the tech embodied in Starship self evidently and very publicly makes SLS less than irrelevant.

The current Artemis III is SLS throws Orion into orbit, it does it’s own TLI to a Lunar Orbit Rendezvous with starship HLS, lands using HLS, then pops back up to dock with the Orion and rides it back home, presumably leaving the HLS in lunar orbit.

I’ve seen a suggestion of, gee, why not launch a Crew Dragon on a Falcon 9 to an Earth Orbit Rendezvous with HLS, transfer leaving the Dragon in Earth orbit, do TLI/lunar orbit/landing with crew in the roomy HLS, reverse back home to Earth orbit, dock with that Crew Dragon and reenter – and skip one entire $4.1b SLS/Orion launch.

Plus that Dragon-EOR-HLS profile requires fewer NASA-man-rating-rituals (oh, sorry, is it human-rating now? Person-rating? Hominid-rating?) than the current Artemis III profile with it’s not-yet-man-rated Orion.

So SLS and Orion don’t add any capability, only cost.

And that completely leaves out of the calculus a manned full up re-usable Starship.

So one can see why the integrated ruling bureaucracy might be wanting to slow SpaceX down a bit.

By: Richard M

Richard M — Tue, 16 Nov 2021 01:28:37 +0000

Apparently NASA and Northrop did an engineering review that extended the 12-month certification limit on the SRB stacking. The last I heard, this would take it deep into spring. But I have not seen a hard deadline.

By: Robert Zimmerman

Robert Zimmerman — Tue, 16 Nov 2021 00:38:22 +0000

In reply to MDN. MDN: You are right. If SLS doesn't launch by March they have a serious problem.

By: MDN

MDN — Tue, 16 Nov 2021 00:30:50 +0000

Bob:

Aren’t the solid rocket motors for SLS hitting their warranted “Use By” date real soon? Has NASA announced a waiver to proceed anyway with this pending push in schedule? It seems to me they have really painted themselves into a box and will need to step on their putz yet again over this one way or the other.

By: George C

George C — Tue, 16 Nov 2021 00:28:08 +0000

Years before Apollo 11 I had a model of the full Saturn V stack and models of the LEM and the media had been telling the whole story as it would play out. Only Apollo 13 was a surprise. Am I missing something? I can’t find the plan.

By: Ray Van Dune

Ray Van Dune — Mon, 15 Nov 2021 22:06:57 +0000

Elon: “Okay, effective immediately the US has a new manned space program named ‘SpaceX at bat’. Gwen Shotwell is the CEO, Jim Bridenstine is the President, and I am the Chief of Design and Operations. NASA should dump SLS and use the billions in savings to make sure JPL and other science leaders get whatever they need. If they tell us where it needs to go, we will carry it there, or they can use some half-assed outfit like Blue Origin if it doesn’t really matter when it gets there.”

By: JhonB

JhonB — Mon, 15 Nov 2021 21:37:56 +0000

“””Matt in AZ SAID:

“””At this rate, SpaceX astronauts will be walking on Mars before NASA’s Orion is ready to send theirs to the moon!”””

Matt, SpaceX will be waiting to get environmental approval proving they will now kill wales in Alaska if they fill a rocket tank in Texas with fuel.

By: Matt in AZ

Matt in AZ — Mon, 15 Nov 2021 19:33:24 +0000

At this rate, SpaceX astronauts will be walking on Mars before NASA’s Orion is ready to send theirs to the moon!

By: Richard M

Richard M — Mon, 15 Nov 2021 19:19:17 +0000

“Although Congress mandated that NASA build the SLS and Orion for its space exploration goals in 2010, the Agency may soon have more affordable commercial options to carry humans to the Moon and beyond.”

You don’t say?

$4.1 billion per SLS launch. $4.1 billion! Even a Saturn V launch only cost $1.3 billion in 2020 dollars.

I’d call it insane, but it clearly makes sense to someone in Washington, DC.