NASA leaning now to send Starliner astronauts home on Dragon, in February 2025
Though a decision will not be made until next week, during a press briefing today the nature of the briefing and the wording by NASA officials suggested that they are now leaning strongly to having the two Starliner astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, return on the next Dragon capsule to launch to the station on September 24, 2024 and return in February 2025.
My conclusion is based on several subtle things. First, no Boeing official participated, the second time in row that they were excluded. Second, this briefing included some new individuals who rank higher in the chain of command, and whose opening statements were clearly written carefully in advance and were read aloud.
Third, and most important, the wording of those statements repeatedly indicated they are looking at Dragon return more seriously. For example, NASA’s chief astronaut Joe Acaba suggested strongly that the two astronauts were now well prepared for an eight month mission, rather than coming home in August 2024. Other statements by officials suggested they themselves are less confident about returning on Starliner. Though the data suggests they can return safely, there remains enough uncertainty to make some people uncomfortable.
One factor not stated but is certainly controlling the situation now is the upcoming election in November. The Democrats who control Washington and the White House will allow nothing to happen that could hurt their election chances. We must therefore assume people in the White House are now in control and are the ones who now intend to make the decision about Starliner’s return.
Based on these factors, we should expect NASA to announce next week that the crew will return in a Dragon capsule. In order for the return to happen on Starliner NASA and Boeing engineers must somehow convince those politicos that the return would be entirely safe. Since these politicos are always risk adverse, it would shock me if they can be convinced. It could happen, but understanding the politically framework is important.
The officials stated that they have scheduled the final review next week, and it appears the decision will be announced then.
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Though a decision will not be made until next week, during a press briefing today the nature of the briefing and the wording by NASA officials suggested that they are now leaning strongly to having the two Starliner astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, return on the next Dragon capsule to launch to the station on September 24, 2024 and return in February 2025.
My conclusion is based on several subtle things. First, no Boeing official participated, the second time in row that they were excluded. Second, this briefing included some new individuals who rank higher in the chain of command, and whose opening statements were clearly written carefully in advance and were read aloud.
Third, and most important, the wording of those statements repeatedly indicated they are looking at Dragon return more seriously. For example, NASA’s chief astronaut Joe Acaba suggested strongly that the two astronauts were now well prepared for an eight month mission, rather than coming home in August 2024. Other statements by officials suggested they themselves are less confident about returning on Starliner. Though the data suggests they can return safely, there remains enough uncertainty to make some people uncomfortable.
One factor not stated but is certainly controlling the situation now is the upcoming election in November. The Democrats who control Washington and the White House will allow nothing to happen that could hurt their election chances. We must therefore assume people in the White House are now in control and are the ones who now intend to make the decision about Starliner’s return.
Based on these factors, we should expect NASA to announce next week that the crew will return in a Dragon capsule. In order for the return to happen on Starliner NASA and Boeing engineers must somehow convince those politicos that the return would be entirely safe. Since these politicos are always risk adverse, it would shock me if they can be convinced. It could happen, but understanding the politically framework is important.
The officials stated that they have scheduled the final review next week, and it appears the decision will be announced then.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
This is NOT such a situation, but what, if anything, would be done if there were an emergency, such as an injury or illness, that would require an immediate return to Earth?
F: If an immediate return was necessary, NASA officials have said repeatedly and loudly that they would have no problem bringing the astronauts back on Starliner. I believe them. The decision now relates to using Starliner in a situation where they don’t necessarily have to.
Minor edit in penultimate paragraph: “the crew will return in a Dragon capsule.” If they were to return ON the capsule, they’d really have to hang on tight!
(yes, I know this is picky, especially since we say we get IN a car, but get ON a plane, it just grates on me. Feel free to ignore! :)
I don’t see the political aspect that way. I doubt the Dems in charge want to see the astronauts rescued by Trump’s buddy Musk.
And even if a return resulted in tragedy, it would not hurt the Dems – it could even provide a “Presidential” moment for Harris.
The reason it would be unwise for the Dems to pressure NASA to use Starliner is the availability of Dragon as an alternative.
And that’s why I don’t think NASA needs outside influence to push them to go with SpaceX .
(Reminds me of the old, old IT saying “Nobody gets fired for choosing IBM”).
If NASA chooses Starliner and something goes wrong, the old shuttle era excuses about “Space travel is difficult and involves unknowns” and ” You can’t make progress without taking risks” won’t work. So a decision you use Starliner would be interesting.
Maybe it would because Butch and Suni insist – yes they are seasoned pros on a test flight, but did they have any inkling that they’d be stuck on ISS for 8 weeks much less 6 months? Are they getting overtime pay for everything after the first 2 weeks?
In the current situation, until the Starliner software is updated the NASA engineers can’t even do the one thing they’d really like to do: bring the capsule home for inspection. A hands-on forensic review by the expert teams perhaps would pinpoint the issues with the thrusters and the helium leaks. If fact, until the software is updated NASA can’t even cast the Starliner capsule adrift to free up the docking port.
Perhaps now, with the exclusion of their people from the last two press conferences, the people in the C-suite at Boeing understand just how badly they’ve damaged the reputation of the company. It’s not just Starliner, of course, but also the 737-series and the 787-series issues. Not a good look for an aerospace company when a significant proportion of one’s products don’t fly correctly.
Elon should craft his response to this extraordinary LEO taxi service call by linking the timeline to the FAA’s launch approval frequency.
If he does, those two may be up there for a while.
I’d really hate to be the people in charge of making this decision. There almost certainly isn’t enough data available to make an actual well informed decision on the risk involved. None of them want to be in the position of justifying why they went ahead if things end up going south. On the other hand, none of them want to kill Boeing’s participation in the program, which this very well could do. Boeing has to just want to get out of this at this point, there’s no possible way for them to earn their expenses back.
I seem to recall that NASA has already blackballed Boeing for new programs a while back, at what point does the whole federal procurement system have to do so?
Andi, I recall Bob grew up in Noo Yawk where we stand on line and ride on the subway.
Though you are correct we do ride in cars. Interesting how language develops.
Mitch S: I changed it as Andi requested, because I can’t have my best copywriter unhappy. Though as you say, coming from New York flying on a capsule is like getting on the subway.
Andi/Mitch-
In Michigan, we also “ride in cars,” but we “stand in line,” “drink Pop,” and “go to the Lake.”
(we would come home “in a dragon capsule.”)
Andi, that’s an old George Carlin joke. “The stewardess told me to get on the plane. I said [forget] you, I’m gettin’ IN!!”
I don’t see the political aspect that way. I doubt the Dems in charge want to see the astronauts rescued by Trump’s buddy Musk.
Yeah, the politics kinda DO cut both ways on this, don’t they?
That said, I have heard from enough people to believe the safety culture actually HAS changed since Columbia. Not always in the way or the velocity I might have preferred, but…it is clear that it is possible to speak up and be heard in a way that it was not before. And clearly, a number of engineers at NASA are not comfortable with their ability to adequately characterize the root causes of the Starliner thruster problems, and therefore, the risks – and they are saying so.
Richard M wrote, “Yeah, the politics kinda DO cut both ways on this, don’t they?”
I think we make a mistake thinking the Democrats really care about the American space effort and NASA’s Artemis program. All they care about is retaining power, and Musk is clearly to them an obstacle to that goal. If choosing to do something that destroys him but also destroys the Artemis program, the Democrats will do it without any regrets.
Steve White
“A hands-on forensic review by the expert teams perhaps would pinpoint the issues with the thrusters and the helium leaks. ”
I do not think Nasa will be able to inspect anything. I think the problems are all on the trunk and not the capsule.And the trunk should burn up on re entry.
Steve White,
The thruster problems have all occurred on the Starliner’s service module – which is, by design, not coming back intact for examination. Boeing engineers can inspect the returned crew capsule all they like – assuming it eventually makes it back in one piece – but that isn’t where the problems are.
Personally, I would like to see Boeing simply source some different thrusters from a different supplier. But that would introduce yet another significant increment of time and expense – and likely a do-over requirement for the CFT. I don’t see Boeing preferring any of that to simply washing its hands of the whole sad affair. If NASA decides to go the return-on-Dragon-next-year route for Butch and Sunni, I suspect Starliner will be a dead letter well before year’s end.
“If doing something that destroys him but also destroys the Artemis program, the Democrats will do it without any regrets.”
You forgot one essential step… blaming it on Trump and MAGA right-wingers!
If Boeing can’t make money with federal contracts, they are finished. However, large and important parts of the US defense industrial base are in its hands. What I suspect happened in the past is they have survived on political influence with cost plus contracts. It is getting harder and harder to hide their issues now that they are being required to produce. With NASA they have better competition. The pentagon fears a war with China and can no longer afford the old ways.. There is now a serious commercial effort to build a next generation airliner to double as a tanker. It is a blended wing body that can also serve the commercial market. It is funded by the Air Force, NASA and private investors. This would never have happened if Boeing’s lobbyists could do anything about it., since they are not involved at all(perhaps by design).
The giant monkey in the room is will the contractual obligations be fulfilled when starliner lands empty?
And it could be me, but it seems the tone has changed a bit from how great the ground testing was, and look how great the thrusters did while docked, we’re just taking our time analyzing all this great data.
Saying things like “returning on a capsule”—or “on a bus” or “on a train”—doesn’t bother me; they seem natural. What I object to is folks saying “on orbit” rather than (what seems eminently natural to me) “in orbit.” As scientists said of the platypus, “who ordered that!?”
“Leaving On A Jet Plane”
You gonna argue with John Denver?
They could have loaded the harddrive with the de-orbit software on it onto the Progress flight if they wanted a good outcome from updating the software to punt the Starliner off the ISS. I’m surprised they didn’t.
Dick Eagleson said
If NASA decides to go the return-on-Dragon-next-year route for Butch and Sunni, I suspect Starliner will be a dead letter well before year’s end.
Honestly, at this point, Boeing Starliner can put jam in its pockets. It’s toast. It’s clear the NASA team has no confidence in Starliner or Butch and Suni would be sipping espressos somewhere near Cape Canaveral. I suspect Boeing Management sees this as a massive money loser (and now a prestige eater) as this situation just gets worse and worse. It at MOST represents a dozen or so contracts to the Space Station that are probably marginally profitable at best so they probably don’t want to do it anymore and prefer the nice meaty cost plus SLS contracts. There’s really no one else but Soyuz and even if Russia weren’t embargoed. Russia has got like 9 launches this year and Soyuz has had some wonkiness in recent launches. No one else is even as close as Starliner is. Except, of course, Dragon which in combination with the Falcon 9 is the Energizer Bunny of Launch systems. Hell, I wonder if the powers that be are impeding Starship because they fear it will make any other launch system (even Dragon/Falcon 9) look too expensive once the Starship Ecosystem gets up to speed. Except as far as I can tell they’re just opposing things to spite SpaceX, they don’t see the freight train that’s about to hit them, they don’t even believe in freight trains. Oh for an even vaguely competent NASA type administration, although that’s just pure fantasy and not Sci-Fi.