Comments on: New analysis strengthens evidence of water in lunar polar craters

By: DougSpace

DougSpace — Fri, 24 Aug 2018 13:11:53 +0000

The issue now is, where is the best location where lunar surface ice is closest to one of the Peaks of Persistent Illumination (PPIs)? From my eyeballing of these new graphs, it appears that the best location is at the 8 o’clock position on Shackleton’s rim where there is close proximity of one of these PPIs to a crater just off the rim.

By: D. Lawrence

D. Lawrence — Thu, 23 Aug 2018 12:42:48 +0000

Bob – just getting back to this. I will leave aside Max’s comments as that is outside my wheel house. Your question about confidence in their results is a good one. While I only browsed through their paper, and I am reasonably confident in its results. First, I personally know a number of the authors, and they are consistently careful in doing prior analyses; and so, to that extent I trust them in this analysis as well. Second, in my brief read through the paper, there are a number of cross checks they have done with the data that appear to make sense. Finally, while this was pitched as an exciting new result (which it is), it is also broadly consistent with prior results that have investigated surficial water/frost within the Moon’s PSRs. Prior results have included data from LRO’s laser altimeter and LAMP instrument. So consistency across datasets increases confidence. At this point, one of the larger remaining perplexities is we still do not understand how these surficial measurements relate to the bulk hydrogen concentrations (i.e., hydrogen/volatile species not on the optical surface, but down to depths of 10s of cm) between and within various PSRs. This is related to the neutron measurement disagreements you have discussed in prior years. If you want more details, you can contact me personally.

By: Max

Max — Wed, 22 Aug 2018 19:31:08 +0000

The shadowed craters of the lunar pole have been measured recently to be near 400° below zero. The extreme cold temperatures act as a magnet to pull in water, methane, ammonia and all other gas/ice compounds that would normally boil away in the vacuum of space. Their location is evidence that UV, visible, or thermal red radiation can not affect it.
For reflected starlight to give enough spectra signature on the old detector not designed for such Low tolerance levels does not inspire much confidence. The error factor will be high.

There are political motives for raising awareness in the value of the real estate at these locations.
If thar are gold in them thar hills, darn Tootin you better expect a gold rush. Water is more valuable than gold in space. It is life, oxygen, rocket fuel, necessary in food production. Everything a independent colony needs to survive.
Nations are negotiating how to best divide this valuable real estate. Meanwhile, independent/more powerful nations have decided to run a head of the others to stake a claim. Establish a foot hole, ask for forgiveness later. The others will see this as claim jumping.
In the end, might makes right, and the others would have to negotiate a share or join together in an alliance to counter any perceived claim.
If you see a “space force” of robotic drones specialized for this and other perceived threats, then we will know for a certainty that they are preparing for such an outcome.
When is the dust settles it will be the UN officially licensed “industrial complex” that will be running things…
From the high ground, there is no target on Earth that cannot be destroyed by simply dropping a rock on it. Ultimate control.

By: Robert Zimmerman

Robert Zimmerman — Tue, 21 Aug 2018 23:56:58 +0000

In reply to D. Lawrence. D. Lawrence: I know you are planetary scientist whose has done work in this very field. How confident are you with these results?

By: D. Lawrence

D. Lawrence — Tue, 21 Aug 2018 23:35:13 +0000

I think the reason this study is using data that has been around for so long is that this analysis was very challenging. It used reflected light to image inside the permanently shaded craters with data from an instrument not designed for such low light levels. Much work was needed to tease out the signals from these data to get the results. And I expect the timing had little to nothing to do with the upcoming Indian mission.