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	Comments on: New Russian missile explodes during test	</title>
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		<title>
		By: Mike Borgelt		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521900</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Borgelt]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Sep 2024 20:10:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521900</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Yeah, sorry, Trident, not Poseidon.
ICBM reliability of 95% would be really good. It doesn&#039;t matter much. Just build and launch more of them. This is how the military thinks]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah, sorry, Trident, not Poseidon.<br />
ICBM reliability of 95% would be really good. It doesn&#8217;t matter much. Just build and launch more of them. This is how the military thinks</p>
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		<title>
		By: Larry		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521830</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Larry]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Sep 2024 16:14:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521830</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The Soviets liked and stuck with storable hypergolic propellants, a la Titan II, the Apollo SM and LM Ascent engine, and virtually every RCS system ever made.  Storable hypergolics in the ICBM field have response times similar to, if not quite as fast as, solid rockets.  Why the Russians/Soviets have stuck with hypergolics has always been a bit of a mystery - even their new SLBMs continue to make use of them, which is something the USN would never have allowed for safety reasons.  The Russians/Soviets have never built massive solid boosters similar to Titan III/IV or the SRBs used on Space Shuttle/SLS. They may lack the technology to make such large solid motors.  

And, the Russians/Soviets have long had a requirement for ICBMs with truly massive throw weight, going back to the SS-9. Their warheads/RVs tend to be a bit heavier than equivalent American warheads, but they&#039;ve also kept very large yield weapons in use longer than anyone else (which weigh much more than lower yield devices).  They have 5-7 ton RVs with yields on the order of 20-25MT that are beyond the weight capabilities of their solid rocket industry, so they stick with the hypergolic liquids they know so well.  

So, while no one knows for certain, the Russians probably continue to use large storable hypergolic liquid engines on their ICBMs and SLBMs because the down-sides in terms of response time are marginal, and the up-sides for them are quite substantial.  Plus, it&#039;s a technology they&#039;ve obviously mastered, so why change, especially when they seem to have difficulties with solid motors?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Soviets liked and stuck with storable hypergolic propellants, a la Titan II, the Apollo SM and LM Ascent engine, and virtually every RCS system ever made.  Storable hypergolics in the ICBM field have response times similar to, if not quite as fast as, solid rockets.  Why the Russians/Soviets have stuck with hypergolics has always been a bit of a mystery &#8211; even their new SLBMs continue to make use of them, which is something the USN would never have allowed for safety reasons.  The Russians/Soviets have never built massive solid boosters similar to Titan III/IV or the SRBs used on Space Shuttle/SLS. They may lack the technology to make such large solid motors.  </p>
<p>And, the Russians/Soviets have long had a requirement for ICBMs with truly massive throw weight, going back to the SS-9. Their warheads/RVs tend to be a bit heavier than equivalent American warheads, but they&#8217;ve also kept very large yield weapons in use longer than anyone else (which weigh much more than lower yield devices).  They have 5-7 ton RVs with yields on the order of 20-25MT that are beyond the weight capabilities of their solid rocket industry, so they stick with the hypergolic liquids they know so well.  </p>
<p>So, while no one knows for certain, the Russians probably continue to use large storable hypergolic liquid engines on their ICBMs and SLBMs because the down-sides in terms of response time are marginal, and the up-sides for them are quite substantial.  Plus, it&#8217;s a technology they&#8217;ve obviously mastered, so why change, especially when they seem to have difficulties with solid motors?</p>
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		<title>
		By: wayne		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521829</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[wayne]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Sep 2024 16:11:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521829</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[let&#039;s ask the internet...

Trident Missile Test Fails
Sky News, Feb. 2024
https://youtu.be/g7qj5iwKMBU
2:26]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>let&#8217;s ask the internet&#8230;</p>
<p>Trident Missile Test Fails<br />
Sky News, Feb. 2024<br />
<a href="https://youtu.be/g7qj5iwKMBU" rel="nofollow ugc">https://youtu.be/g7qj5iwKMBU</a><br />
2:26</p>
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		<title>
		By: Richard		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521820</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Sep 2024 15:52:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521820</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[My late uncle had the distinction of selling this to the US government.

https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/vanguard-rocket-test/]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My late uncle had the distinction of selling this to the US government.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/vanguard-rocket-test/" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/vanguard-rocket-test/</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Tregonsee314		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521790</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tregonsee314]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Sep 2024 14:55:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521790</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Mr Borgelt I don&#039;t think the UK ever used Poseidon missiles. They went straight from Polaris to Trident, The current 4 Vanguard class SSBN use Trident II (D5?) and have been the UK&#039;s only strategic nuclear force since the mid 90&#039;s when they took their last free fall weapons out of service.

As someone noted yes if you intend to first strike the fueling requirement is less of an issue. But also as noted these are likely hypergolic fueled so can sit active for long periods. The main issue is the maintenance of these beasts. It is complicated and exacting, not like traditional soviet/Russian weaponry that was as simple as possible and will stand up under limited/poor maintenance.

Honestly I can&#039;t imagine why once you have the Topol/Topol-M solid fueled weapon why you&#039;d ever want to go back to liquid/hypergolic fuels for strategic weapons. It&#039;s range is sufficient at 6800 NM (less than LGM-30 Minuteman III at 8700 NM but better than the Minuteman I/II). It can carry a 1 megaton warhead so throw weight seems enough, CEP is 200 M. Looks like this is a boondoggle to keep some sector of the military industrial complex happy/busy that NEVER happens in the US :-) .]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mr Borgelt I don&#8217;t think the UK ever used Poseidon missiles. They went straight from Polaris to Trident, The current 4 Vanguard class SSBN use Trident II (D5?) and have been the UK&#8217;s only strategic nuclear force since the mid 90&#8217;s when they took their last free fall weapons out of service.</p>
<p>As someone noted yes if you intend to first strike the fueling requirement is less of an issue. But also as noted these are likely hypergolic fueled so can sit active for long periods. The main issue is the maintenance of these beasts. It is complicated and exacting, not like traditional soviet/Russian weaponry that was as simple as possible and will stand up under limited/poor maintenance.</p>
<p>Honestly I can&#8217;t imagine why once you have the Topol/Topol-M solid fueled weapon why you&#8217;d ever want to go back to liquid/hypergolic fuels for strategic weapons. It&#8217;s range is sufficient at 6800 NM (less than LGM-30 Minuteman III at 8700 NM but better than the Minuteman I/II). It can carry a 1 megaton warhead so throw weight seems enough, CEP is 200 M. Looks like this is a boondoggle to keep some sector of the military industrial complex happy/busy that NEVER happens in the US :-) .</p>
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		<title>
		By: DCE		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521781</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[DCE]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Sep 2024 13:56:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521781</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[There&#039;s the second half of the equation which is just how many of the Russian nuclear warheads will actually work? 

Nukes require regular maintenance. They can&#039;t just be stored in a bunker for years on end or sit on top of an IRBM, ICBM, or SLBM without regular maintenance. There&#039;s a list of testing and maintenance that has to be done regularly in order to make sure the warhead goes &#039;BOOM&#039; rather &#039;fizzle&#039; if/when the time comes.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#8217;s the second half of the equation which is just how many of the Russian nuclear warheads will actually work? </p>
<p>Nukes require regular maintenance. They can&#8217;t just be stored in a bunker for years on end or sit on top of an IRBM, ICBM, or SLBM without regular maintenance. There&#8217;s a list of testing and maintenance that has to be done regularly in order to make sure the warhead goes &#8216;BOOM&#8217; rather &#8216;fizzle&#8217; if/when the time comes.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Mike Borgelt		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521735</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Borgelt]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Sep 2024 07:56:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521735</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[OTOH the Brits last two test launches of Poseidon&#039;s from their boomers failed.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>OTOH the Brits last two test launches of Poseidon&#8217;s from their boomers failed.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Jeff Wright		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521702</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jeff Wright]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Sep 2024 03:56:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521702</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[SS-9 Scarp city-busters became Tsyclone, SS-18 Satans (Voyevoda?) Dnepr.

Sarmat was made from the start to also take satellite payloads like our Titan II modifications.

Sarmat has a solid kicker charge that pushes it up and out. SLBMs had ampulized hypergolics and the second stage nozzle immersed in the propellant tank of the first--staging by cutting the missile in half via primacord or something.

It took until the end of the Cold War to get a Minuteman/Midgetman equivalent in TOPOL-M which is their START smallsats launcher.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>SS-9 Scarp city-busters became Tsyclone, SS-18 Satans (Voyevoda?) Dnepr.</p>
<p>Sarmat was made from the start to also take satellite payloads like our Titan II modifications.</p>
<p>Sarmat has a solid kicker charge that pushes it up and out. SLBMs had ampulized hypergolics and the second stage nozzle immersed in the propellant tank of the first&#8211;staging by cutting the missile in half via primacord or something.</p>
<p>It took until the end of the Cold War to get a Minuteman/Midgetman equivalent in TOPOL-M which is their START smallsats launcher.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Dick Eagleson		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521692</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dick Eagleson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Sep 2024 01:49:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521692</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The only ICBMs that had to be fueled immediately before launch were the USSR&#039;s R-7 - the direct ancestor of today&#039;s Soyuz - and the US&#039;s Atlases and Titan 1s.  These earliest ICBMs had kerolox engines and were in service - as ICBMs anyway - for only a short time.  We and the Soviets both switched to missiles using hypergolic propellants - which can be left fueled for extended periods and quickly fired at need.  Hence the term &quot;storable propellants.&quot;  The US almost as quickly moved again to solid fuel for most of its ICBMs, but kept the already-deployed storable propellant ones too.  These latter were retired in the 80s.  The Soviets had problems with solid fuels and never relied on them for more than a fraction of its nuclear deterrent.

The Sarmat seems to be a Russified version of the most recent (more than three decades back) model upgrade of the Ukrainian-built R-36 with a good press agent.  A number of the original R-36s were used as satellite launchers under the name Dnepr for a time.  Many of the original R-36s are, in theory at least, still in service.  How much they can actually be counted upon in a pinch is one of those 64 billion ruble questions to which even the Russians probably have no solid answer.

Russian maintenance of other portions of its strategic nuclear arsenal since the end of the USSR has not been impressive.  The Dnepr had about a 5% failure rate in satellite launcher service.  Any still-deployed R-36s are likely far iffier than that.

Much of the erstwhile Soviet fleet of ballistic missile submarines, for example, is now gone - and their missiles with them - and only a handful of replacements of questionable capability have been completed in the post-Soviet era.  The Russian land-based ICBM force is probably similarly diminished and hollow - perhaps fewer than 100 servicable missiles remain after decades of cannibalizing some to keep the rest going.  But I doubt we have any better an idea of just how much that is so than do the Russians.  We&#039;re good at finding out things the Russians know, but no intelligence apparat can get answers to questions even one&#039;s enemies don&#039;t know.

Even with time to do some working up - and the Russians have had over 2-1/2 years since invading Ukraine - I don&#039;t think the Russians any longer have enough suitably reliable ICBMs to hazard kicking off a nuclear exchange - especially not with the entirety of NATO.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The only ICBMs that had to be fueled immediately before launch were the USSR&#8217;s R-7 &#8211; the direct ancestor of today&#8217;s Soyuz &#8211; and the US&#8217;s Atlases and Titan 1s.  These earliest ICBMs had kerolox engines and were in service &#8211; as ICBMs anyway &#8211; for only a short time.  We and the Soviets both switched to missiles using hypergolic propellants &#8211; which can be left fueled for extended periods and quickly fired at need.  Hence the term &#8220;storable propellants.&#8221;  The US almost as quickly moved again to solid fuel for most of its ICBMs, but kept the already-deployed storable propellant ones too.  These latter were retired in the 80s.  The Soviets had problems with solid fuels and never relied on them for more than a fraction of its nuclear deterrent.</p>
<p>The Sarmat seems to be a Russified version of the most recent (more than three decades back) model upgrade of the Ukrainian-built R-36 with a good press agent.  A number of the original R-36s were used as satellite launchers under the name Dnepr for a time.  Many of the original R-36s are, in theory at least, still in service.  How much they can actually be counted upon in a pinch is one of those 64 billion ruble questions to which even the Russians probably have no solid answer.</p>
<p>Russian maintenance of other portions of its strategic nuclear arsenal since the end of the USSR has not been impressive.  The Dnepr had about a 5% failure rate in satellite launcher service.  Any still-deployed R-36s are likely far iffier than that.</p>
<p>Much of the erstwhile Soviet fleet of ballistic missile submarines, for example, is now gone &#8211; and their missiles with them &#8211; and only a handful of replacements of questionable capability have been completed in the post-Soviet era.  The Russian land-based ICBM force is probably similarly diminished and hollow &#8211; perhaps fewer than 100 servicable missiles remain after decades of cannibalizing some to keep the rest going.  But I doubt we have any better an idea of just how much that is so than do the Russians.  We&#8217;re good at finding out things the Russians know, but no intelligence apparat can get answers to questions even one&#8217;s enemies don&#8217;t know.</p>
<p>Even with time to do some working up &#8211; and the Russians have had over 2-1/2 years since invading Ukraine &#8211; I don&#8217;t think the Russians any longer have enough suitably reliable ICBMs to hazard kicking off a nuclear exchange &#8211; especially not with the entirety of NATO.</p>
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		<title>
		By: David Eastman		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521683</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Eastman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Sep 2024 00:49:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521683</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I think the logic is that it&#039;s the submarine launched missiles that are your &quot;reaction force&quot; that need to be always ready to launch in reaction to incoming fire. The land based missiles are just a threatening stick to wave around so the fact that they take a while to prepare has little meaning.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think the logic is that it&#8217;s the submarine launched missiles that are your &#8220;reaction force&#8221; that need to be always ready to launch in reaction to incoming fire. The land based missiles are just a threatening stick to wave around so the fact that they take a while to prepare has little meaning.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Richard M		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521607</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard M]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Sep 2024 20:05:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521607</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[It&#039;s worth considering as a possible explanation that certain *other* current. ongoing activities of the Russian government may be sponging up most of Russia&#039;s solid rocket propellant manufacturing capabilities at present...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s worth considering as a possible explanation that certain *other* current. ongoing activities of the Russian government may be sponging up most of Russia&#8217;s solid rocket propellant manufacturing capabilities at present&#8230;</p>
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		<title>
		By: Ray Van Dune		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521604</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ray Van Dune]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Sep 2024 19:56:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521604</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The Russians don&#039;t expect to be subject to a first strike, so they don&#039;t need to be able to react instantly.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Russians don&#8217;t expect to be subject to a first strike, so they don&#8217;t need to be able to react instantly.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Andrew_W		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521597</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew_W]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Sep 2024 18:59:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521597</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Fueling time is less of an issue if you intend to be the one to launch first.

Just saying.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fueling time is less of an issue if you intend to be the one to launch first.</p>
<p>Just saying.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Tregonsee314		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521592</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tregonsee314]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Sep 2024 18:04:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521592</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Shallow Minded reader remember that for ICBMs you have at BEST 30 minutes to respond. For certain SLBM situations you may have less than 15 minutes to respond. And that depends on your satellite and radar facilities noting the launch, which is not a given with Russia&#039;s diminished capacities. There are other issues, the fuels used are often Hypergolics which tend to be toxic and rather annoying to handle (See our old Titan II and accidents like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Damascus_Titan_missile_explosion ). Often the the tanks need to be pressurized with something (say Nitrogen) as they are usually structurally critical to the missile. In addition there may be limits to the number of times the fuel can be cycled. There are reasons we and the then Soviets went to solid fuel for our strategic responses in the 70&#039;s/80&#039;s. As far as I know none of those have changed. Why you would do this for your strategic reserve is baffling and hints the processes and capbilities in Russia are radically changed/diminished.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Shallow Minded reader remember that for ICBMs you have at BEST 30 minutes to respond. For certain SLBM situations you may have less than 15 minutes to respond. And that depends on your satellite and radar facilities noting the launch, which is not a given with Russia&#8217;s diminished capacities. There are other issues, the fuels used are often Hypergolics which tend to be toxic and rather annoying to handle (See our old Titan II and accidents like this <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Damascus_Titan_missile_explosion" rel="nofollow ugc">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Damascus_Titan_missile_explosion</a> ). Often the the tanks need to be pressurized with something (say Nitrogen) as they are usually structurally critical to the missile. In addition there may be limits to the number of times the fuel can be cycled. There are reasons we and the then Soviets went to solid fuel for our strategic responses in the 70&#8217;s/80&#8217;s. As far as I know none of those have changed. Why you would do this for your strategic reserve is baffling and hints the processes and capbilities in Russia are radically changed/diminished.</p>
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		<title>
		By: M. Murcek		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521589</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[M. Murcek]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Sep 2024 17:46:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521589</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Liquid fuel still has an edge for a heavy lift rocket. Sarmat is supposed to have a 10 ton payload. Not saying any of that is a good idea.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Liquid fuel still has an edge for a heavy lift rocket. Sarmat is supposed to have a 10 ton payload. Not saying any of that is a good idea.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Shallow Minded Reader		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/new-russian-missile-explodes-during-test/#comment-1521583</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Shallow Minded Reader]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Sep 2024 16:45:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=108586#comment-1521583</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Not a bad thing that a liquid fuel rocket takes longer to launch than solid fuel.  Gives additional time to re-consider the folly of nuclear war.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not a bad thing that a liquid fuel rocket takes longer to launch than solid fuel.  Gives additional time to re-consider the folly of nuclear war.</p>
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