NOAA and NASA declare the Sun has reached solar maximum
Click for originial graph.
The uncertainty of science: During a press conference yesterday NOAA and NASA scientists announced that they now believe the Sun has reached solar maximum as part of its regular 11-year sunspot cycle.
“This announcement doesn’t mean that this is the peak of solar activity we’ll see this solar cycle,” said Elsayed Talaat, director of space weather operations at NOAA. “While the Sun has reached the solar maximum period, the month that solar activity peaks on the Sun will not be identified for months or years.”
Scientists will not be able to determine the exact peak of this solar maximum period for many months because it’s only identifiable after they’ve tracked a consistent decline in solar activity after that peak. However, scientists have identified that the last two years on the Sun have been part of this active phase of the solar cycle, due to the consistently high number of sunspots during this period. Scientists anticipate that the maximum phase will last another year or so before the Sun enters the declining phase, which leads back to solar minimum. Since 1989, the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel — an international panel of experts sponsored by NASA and NOAA — has worked together to make their prediction for the next solar cycle.
In other words, they have no idea yet it the actual peak has been reached. All they are really telling us is that the Sun is now in that maximum phase, something that has been very evident for many months.
This announcement is filled with a lot of blarney. For example, one scientist is quoted as saying the activity this maximum “has slightly exceeded expectations.” A simply glance at the graph they released, shown on the right, illustrates how wrong that statement is. The activity has been almost twice what was predicted (as indicated by the red curve). And though they say we have hit maximum, they admit they don’t know if we have reached the peak yet.
Having followed the predictions of the solar scientist community on this subject now for more than two decades, I have learned that this community knows far less than it lets on, and likes to exaggerate its capabilities to predict what the Sun will do. At the same time, they have also often played Chicken Little, warning everyone that if we don’t pay attention to them and do what they say, sun storms and solar activity will kill us all. (Interestingly, this announcement backs off somewhat from that doom-saying, making it a refreshing change.)
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Click for originial graph.
The uncertainty of science: During a press conference yesterday NOAA and NASA scientists announced that they now believe the Sun has reached solar maximum as part of its regular 11-year sunspot cycle.
“This announcement doesn’t mean that this is the peak of solar activity we’ll see this solar cycle,” said Elsayed Talaat, director of space weather operations at NOAA. “While the Sun has reached the solar maximum period, the month that solar activity peaks on the Sun will not be identified for months or years.”
Scientists will not be able to determine the exact peak of this solar maximum period for many months because it’s only identifiable after they’ve tracked a consistent decline in solar activity after that peak. However, scientists have identified that the last two years on the Sun have been part of this active phase of the solar cycle, due to the consistently high number of sunspots during this period. Scientists anticipate that the maximum phase will last another year or so before the Sun enters the declining phase, which leads back to solar minimum. Since 1989, the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel — an international panel of experts sponsored by NASA and NOAA — has worked together to make their prediction for the next solar cycle.
In other words, they have no idea yet it the actual peak has been reached. All they are really telling us is that the Sun is now in that maximum phase, something that has been very evident for many months.
This announcement is filled with a lot of blarney. For example, one scientist is quoted as saying the activity this maximum “has slightly exceeded expectations.” A simply glance at the graph they released, shown on the right, illustrates how wrong that statement is. The activity has been almost twice what was predicted (as indicated by the red curve). And though they say we have hit maximum, they admit they don’t know if we have reached the peak yet.
Having followed the predictions of the solar scientist community on this subject now for more than two decades, I have learned that this community knows far less than it lets on, and likes to exaggerate its capabilities to predict what the Sun will do. At the same time, they have also often played Chicken Little, warning everyone that if we don’t pay attention to them and do what they say, sun storms and solar activity will kill us all. (Interestingly, this announcement backs off somewhat from that doom-saying, making it a refreshing change.)
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The sun could surprise us yet, although, this month (like last month) seems weaker than August
Looking at the chart, it appears we are about the same levels as observed in 1925 and 1825! IF this chart can be used as Historical evidence of a CYCLE, it would appear that we should see increased activity until roughly 2050! I’ve always thought that the sunspots do affect our earth so it would be interesting to see the affects of those sunspots on a daily or maybe weekly chart that shows the temps vs sunspots. I’m sure that sunspots during our winters wouldn’t have the same impact as those summer ones, but it would be interesting to see.
I’ll put more faith in our “scientists'” weather predictions when they can get a WHOLE LOT more accurate with what is going to happen TOMORROW!
Parker Project Scientist Covers Our Connections to the Sun at TED202
https://parkersolarprobe.jhuapl.edu/News-Center/Show-Article.php?articleID=200
from: https://parkersolarprobe.jhuapl.edu/
Watch the TED.
If anyone has been keeping p on the Sunspots, there has been a dramatic drop in activity this October. This morning the activity is the lowest for some time.