Progress freighter launch to ISS canceled due to undisclosed issue with rocket’s third stage
The launch of a Russian Progress freighter to ISS, scheduled for September 9, 2026, has been canceled due to undisclosed issue with the third stage of its Soyuz-2 rocket.
The completed launch vehicle with the cargo ship was rolled out to the launch pad at Site 31 on the morning of Sept. 6, 2026, however soon after the installation of the rocket on the launch pad, Russian and Kazakh sources reported a problem with a third stage, which were serious enough to require a return of the rocket to the vehicle assembly building. According to the KazTAG news agency, the Soyuz-2-1b vehicle was expected to be removed from the pad and rolled back to a processing building at Site 31 on Sept. 7, 2026, on the decision of a State Commission overseeing the launch campaign. No new launch was set at the time, according to a source at the launch site quoted by KazTAG.
While it is not unusal for there to be issues like this for many rockets, it has been generally rare for Russia’s Soyuz-2 rocket, and thus is another indicationg of a continuing decline in the quality of Russia’s engineering industry.
Though unlikely, there is also the possibility that the delay is because of Ukrainian sabotage or a threat of a Ukrainian drone attack. The Ukraine in recent months has been stepping up its attacks on Russia’s space assets, hitting two different rocket factories and its Plesetsk military spaceport. Those attacks however were aimed at specifically blocking the launch of Russia’s Rassvet broadband satellites, which the Ukraine correctly considers a military threat. The Progress is a purely civilian space launch for the international partnership at ISS. A Ukrainian attack to it would likely be more harmful to its cause than helpful, as it would antagonize its European and American allies.
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Though unlikely, there is also the possibility that the delay is because of Ukrainian sabotage or a threat of a Ukrainian drone attack.
This launch is occurring from the independent country of Kazakhstan. The chances of a Ukrainian drone attack on it are just about zero.
I agree. But in war one must consider all possibilities. Three years ago everyone thought the odds of Ukrainian hits deep within Russia were “just about zero.”
There’s possible and then there’s probable. As mkent notes, Baikonur is in Kazakhstan, not Russia. Ukraine gains nothing militarily advantageous by even attempting to destroy a non-military space launch and angering the Kazakhs by conducting an attack on Kazakh soil. If Ukraine wants to shut down Russian operations at Baikonur, the best play is to do what it has lately been doing – attack the rocket factories located in Russia. Thus far, Ukraine has hit the Soyuz factory and was likely behind the recent fire at the Angara factory. It won’t take many more such strikes to put the Russian rocket industry completely off-line.
As I said in answer to mkent, I agree. However, the cause of the upper stage problem could have been sabotage before it got to Baikonur.
Still, Russia’s decrepit aerospace industry remains the most likely cause.
More than likely its not even Ukraine but instead a single angry anti Russia person.
Not even up to the level of insurgent or rebel just some angry guy with access..
Explaining this cultural tick
https://m.youtube.com/shorts/42LbsQq1qao
I share that worldview–behind every smile, there are teeth.
Rescheduled for 16 Sep 26.