Recent Cuba meteorite estimated to have weighed about 360 tons
Using its imaged track from several sources, scientists have now estimated the size and weight of the recent spectacular fireball over Cuba as being several meters across and weighing about 360 tons.
After reconstructing the trajectory in the atmosphere, the Colombian astronomers “played back” the impact and found that the culprit, a rock with an estimated size of several meters and a weight of about 360 tons, came from an eccentric orbit around the Sun with an average distance to our star of 1.3 astronomical units (1 astronomical-unit = 150 million km). Before impacting the Earth, the rock completed a turn around the Sun every 1.32 years. All that came to an end on February 1, 2019 when both, the rock and the Earth, found themselves at the same point in space, at the same time. The worse part was for the rock!
The article spends most of its time selling a computer model the scientists have developed that they claim can predict the approach trajectory of meteorites, something I find quite unconvincing. However, the result above is important for different reasons. Routinely astronomers today discover new small asteroids just days before they zoom harmlessly past the Earth. Each time one of these new near Earth asteroids is found, the press automatically goes into “Chicken Little mode,” suggesting that should this object have hit the Earth it would have caused massive damage.
Most of these newly discovered asteroids are about the same size as the Cuba meteorite, if not smaller. Thus, this meteorite gives us a clear idea of how completely harmless these other near Earth asteroids are. In fact, this impact suggests to me that in most cases an asteroid would have to be about ten times larger to pose a significant threat.
Keep this number — 360 tons — in mind the next time another near Earth asteroid is discovered.
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Using its imaged track from several sources, scientists have now estimated the size and weight of the recent spectacular fireball over Cuba as being several meters across and weighing about 360 tons.
After reconstructing the trajectory in the atmosphere, the Colombian astronomers “played back” the impact and found that the culprit, a rock with an estimated size of several meters and a weight of about 360 tons, came from an eccentric orbit around the Sun with an average distance to our star of 1.3 astronomical units (1 astronomical-unit = 150 million km). Before impacting the Earth, the rock completed a turn around the Sun every 1.32 years. All that came to an end on February 1, 2019 when both, the rock and the Earth, found themselves at the same point in space, at the same time. The worse part was for the rock!
The article spends most of its time selling a computer model the scientists have developed that they claim can predict the approach trajectory of meteorites, something I find quite unconvincing. However, the result above is important for different reasons. Routinely astronomers today discover new small asteroids just days before they zoom harmlessly past the Earth. Each time one of these new near Earth asteroids is found, the press automatically goes into “Chicken Little mode,” suggesting that should this object have hit the Earth it would have caused massive damage.
Most of these newly discovered asteroids are about the same size as the Cuba meteorite, if not smaller. Thus, this meteorite gives us a clear idea of how completely harmless these other near Earth asteroids are. In fact, this impact suggests to me that in most cases an asteroid would have to be about ten times larger to pose a significant threat.
Keep this number — 360 tons — in mind the next time another near Earth asteroid is discovered.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
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Thus, this meteorite gives us a clear idea of how completely harmless these other near Earth asteroids are
It seems likely to me that this was a C-type meteorite, if it had been a several hundred ton S or M-type it may have hit Earths surface mostly intact.
Andrew_W: You make a very good point that I should have considered. The question remains: Would a nickel-iron asteroid of this size (several meters) and weight (about 350 tons) produce any significant damage?
I suspect not, in most cases. Only if the asteroid is coming in from a high angle orbit at great speed would it pose a greater threat.
Robert wrote: “Routinely astronomers today discover new small asteroids just days before they zoom harmlessly past the Earth.”
The main reason that these small asteroids are noticed only days before they come to closest approach is because they are small. They are not large enough for us to notice while they are still farther away.
The article notes that the scientists needed three observations to calculate the meteor’s orbit. Interestingly, if you have distance information, it only takes two observations. In the movie “Roxanne,” the title character says that she thinks she discovered a comet but wouldn’t know for a few days. This is because comet hunters need three observations to calculate the object’s orbit to verify that it is in a cometary orbit; they have no distance information.
Robert wrote “The article spends most of its time selling a computer model the scientists have developed that they claim can predict the approach trajectory of meteorites, something I find quite unconvincing.”
I think I understand the reasoning that they apply. They associate their “Monte Carlo” type of model with orbits that resemble already known asteroid orbits. Where there are a number of similar asteroid orbits, then the conclusion seems to be that there are even more, so we might expect asteroids that land in various locations on Earth to come from directions that match their “predictions” for the various locations.
If future sightings match their predictions, then the value may be in concentrating our meteor-searches in the directions that are likely to fall in areas that would be most adversely affected. Fortunately, we now have lots of cameras around the planet, so sightings may become common enough for the model to be well tested in the next few decades.
Although, with luck, we will have already found all the dangerous asteroids by then.
Armageddon
“Get my phone book!”
https://youtu.be/TzRYJGbtEjc
0:32