It could be that Blue Origin has become distracted by other problems that demand more immediate attention. They may have relinquished the leadership role so that they can solve their other problems and get back on track with Orbital Reef. Whether they can regain a leadership role, or deserve one, remains to be seen. I am still hopeful that Bezos can get his company back to being a leader. They were first in landing a reusable booster rocket, but they lost their sense of urgency after that. The commercial space stations require a sense of urgency if they are to be operational by the time ISS retires.

Another possibility comes out of the Space News article:

Gold said he believed that microgravity biotech research could help counter the “billionaire playboy narrative” that has dominated coverage of the commercial space industry. “I hope that this agreement is an inflection point that will bring attention to what we are going to be able to do for humanity to benefit and improve life on Earth.”

Because early space businesses that were the most discussed by the public were headed and funded by rich men, it seems to be assumed that only rich men are doing space business and thus playing in space. If the Orbital Reef team emphasizes Blue Origin’s involvement, then this assumption could be an overbearing topic, preventing the other uses of commercial space stations. Since the benefits of the ISS are not well publicized, very few people know what happens aboard it, and many think that the astronauts just float around up there, looking out the window or giving demonstrations of freefall fun with water droplets and cetera.

This is one of the things that I think is a major detraction of the ISS and the Space Shuttle projects. They didn’t produce much that was immediately or visibly useful to us earthlings. Who cares that Pepsi and Coke flew on the Shuttle, and who cares about brewing beer in space? No one, but those are the things that get the attention of the general news media and of the taxpayer. That Orbital Reef is likely to help pharmaceutical companies make their products (hopefully made in space), then the usefulness of space may soon be understood by the civilian population. The best part, the taxpayer did not have to pay for these manufacturing facilities.

This is the thing, of course. That said, I was struck that in the new NASA Space Flight Flyover video this afternoon, they have captured a lot of footage of a lot of hardware at the Blue Origin facility at the Cape: an honest-to-God first stage undergoing actual pressure testing, for example, and a pretty packed factory floor.

What does it all amount to? A lot more than there was last year, to be sure. But how close is Blue Origin to an actual launch? We can’t know that, and BO has not offered a firm date, and so I still think we can’t expect anything before (at least) 2025. All I can say is that it does look like they are starting to make some real progress. I certainly hope so. Skeptical as I am of BO, I would rather live in a reality where they are an active and vigorous part of the U.S. launch market than one where they are not.