Comments on: Russia releases timeline for its Russian Orbital Station to replace its ISS operations

By: Dick Eagleson

Dick Eagleson — Fri, 26 Jul 2024 04:41:09 +0000

The late Soviet Union also had a lot of big plans for what turned out to be its non-existent future. The way things are currently trending, Russia’s odds of still being an extant nation-state by the 2027 – 2033 timeframe are looking to be no better than a coin-flip.

By: Edward

Edward — Thu, 25 Jul 2024 01:16:10 +0000

Charles wrote: “I’m sorry to say that it’s the US that finds itself in the “such projects usually take two decades to launch, not three years” part of the conversation.”

Sadly, this has truth to it. The U.S. projects that are taking two decades are government projects. Webb was one of those. It should have taken a decade and was originally budgeted for half a billion dollars, eventually costing almost ten billion. Artemis started out as Constellation and is also taking more than two decades and is costing several tens of billions of dollars (I lost count, years ago, around twenty billion, including Constellation, Gateway, and Orion).

The good news: This is one of the several advantages of commercial space projects. Their financiers are not as forgiving as governments, and they will — and have — pulled the plug on projects that they lose faith in. This is what happened to Virgin Orbit, last year, because they could not talk investors into a new infusion of cash to tide them over a few months to fix a problem.

Unlike government projects, commercial projects not only have to make money, but they do better when they make their money sooner rather than later. It is one of the reasons that SpaceX’s development programs tend to move fast and break things. They find out quickly which new concepts work and which may need more improvement than is affordable. Starlink did not exactly break its satellites, but it moved fast to launch already-obsolete satellites just to verify some concepts now rather than later.

Starship is currently at over five billion dollars and appears to have ramped up to spending two billion dollars per year. It was originally a Power Point presentation in 2016, eight years ago, but it is getting close to revenue service.

By: David Eastman

David Eastman — Tue, 23 Jul 2024 21:57:29 +0000

The proposed schedule has 19 Soyuz and 15 Angara launches related to this station in the 2027-2033 time frame. That’s on top of whatever other launch commitments they may have for their own payloads and ISS support. That right there is a stretch given their current capabilities, not even considering having the payloads ready. And they are developing and testing the new PTK crew spacecraft as part of that timeline. I’d love to see it happen, but there’s just no way they pull it off. If you were offering bets, I don’t think you could get anyone to bid on it actually happening on schedule. I think the real question is whether the space station goes up as designed, but a decade or more late, or doesn’t go up at all, or just as the absolute bare complement of modules, and then gets abandoned soon after.

By: Gealon

Gealon — Tue, 23 Jul 2024 18:46:30 +0000

It looks like Mir retreads.

The module at the rear looks like Kevant 1, Mir core module ahead of that, Spekter with larger solar panels to the right , Krystal to the left. The thing on top is new, it looks like a multiple docking adapter, which makes no sense since it’s off axis. Bottom and front I can’t identify.

By: Charles

Charles — Tue, 23 Jul 2024 17:59:42 +0000

Russia’s track record since the fall of the Soviet Union is that such projects usually take two decades to launch, not three years
So much has changed in the last 35 years and as far as the Russians new space station, well at least they have plans for one.
I’m sorry to say that it’s the US that finds itself in the “such projects usually take two decades to launch, not three years” part of the conversation.

By: Jay

Jay — Tue, 23 Jul 2024 16:54:02 +0000

Geoffc,
I have seen a range of numbers mentioned on Russian websites = 70 to 97 degrees.

By: geoffc

geoffc — Tue, 23 Jul 2024 16:43:36 +0000

Key question – what inclination are they aiming for?

51.6 like ISS or a more Polar orbit they had been suggesting.

If it was 51.6 they could reuse parts from ISS. But not in the new inclination