Russian inspector satellite now approaching its eleventh communications satellite
A Russian inspector satellite dubbed Luch-2 and launched in March 2023 is now maneuvering to make a close approach and surveillance of an eleventh commercial communications satellite in geosynchronous orbit.
The company is forecasting that Luch 2’s next object of interest is the Intelsat 1002 communications satellite. “Luch 2 is expected to perform an additional maneuver to stop its drift near Intelsat 1002 on June 28 if it continues its past pattern of behavior,” Slingshot said. This behavior mirrors that of its predecessor, Luch Olymp-K-1, which has been known for similar intelligence-gathering activities.
The close approaches have ranged from 12 miles to 142 miles, with most getting inside 100 miles distance.
It is unlikely Russia is testing robotic maneuvering technology, as it has had this capability since the 1970s. More likely it is testing the ability to intercept communications from such satellites, though it is unknown whether Luch-2 has done so. Visiting multiple satellites would also permit it to test against a wide variety of technology.
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A Russian inspector satellite dubbed Luch-2 and launched in March 2023 is now maneuvering to make a close approach and surveillance of an eleventh commercial communications satellite in geosynchronous orbit.
The company is forecasting that Luch 2’s next object of interest is the Intelsat 1002 communications satellite. “Luch 2 is expected to perform an additional maneuver to stop its drift near Intelsat 1002 on June 28 if it continues its past pattern of behavior,” Slingshot said. This behavior mirrors that of its predecessor, Luch Olymp-K-1, which has been known for similar intelligence-gathering activities.
The close approaches have ranged from 12 miles to 142 miles, with most getting inside 100 miles distance.
It is unlikely Russia is testing robotic maneuvering technology, as it has had this capability since the 1970s. More likely it is testing the ability to intercept communications from such satellites, though it is unknown whether Luch-2 has done so. Visiting multiple satellites would also permit it to test against a wide variety of technology.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
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Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
More than intercepting comms, it’s also an implied threat that the satellite can be taken out. Most ASAT weapons we’ve heard about can target lower orbits. This may be more of “we see you and you aren’t safe in geostationary”. Presumably, the US has tried to make its reconnaissance satellites hard to observe, makes you wonder what kind of cloak and dagger stuff is going on with them.
“Cloak and dagger stuff”, like waiting for sensor sweeps dead spot and launch a listening probe to attach itself to the satellite. Also capable of interrupting, jamming or destroying hardened systems.
All our modern capabilities depend on those satellites.
Is 100 miles close? It doesn’t sound close, despite being American (“In America, 100 years is a long time; in Europe, 100 miles is a long way.”).
Even 12 miles doesn’t seem very close. Compared to the vastness of orbital space, it’s tiny, but as a traversable distance, it’s doesn’t seem a useful. Maybe it’s the metric? That is, “12 miles” is not a useful data point. 12 miles at what relative velocity?
Even if they drop something off, it won’t stay there without maneuvering. If the satellite, itself, is wandering about from orbit to orbit, that must take fuel/thruster gas. How much could any sub-satellite (sub-munition?) manage? I suppose there is no hurry, so it could be aimed to intercept several orbits later.
launch a listening probe to attach itself to the satellite.
While possible, this just doesn’t seem likely to me. If someone who understands orbital mechanics wants to dispute that, I’d love to hear/read it.
Even for shooting it to break it, 12 miles seems a long way. Just shooting at it doesn’t seem practical with both objects in curved/multi-axis motion relative to each other. Is 12 miles close enough at geosynch that the orbital curve is straight, for practical purposes? I’d think that whatever the “bullet” is would need to be able to maneuver – and be at least semi-autonomous. Ground controlled intercepts with a half-second latency wouldn’t be fun.
All that said, if they can get within 12 miles, they can probably get as close as they want – unless that was an accident and they were aiming for the 100 mile mark.