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	Comments on: Solar scientists struggle to predict the next sunspot cycle	</title>
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		<title>
		By: Edward		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/solar-scientists-struggle-to-predict-the-next-sunspot-cycle/#comment-1067673</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Edward]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Jun 2019 00:05:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=58549#comment-1067673</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[wodun wrote: &quot;&lt;i&gt;We don’t understand the sun, but we totally understand the Earth’s climate. It is rather refreshing to see scientists express uncertainty, to have the ability to express it without fear of being unpersoned.&lt;/i&gt;&quot; 

Science thrives on uncertainty.  Science&#039;s objective is to become more certain about the world and universe around us.  It is when we are fairly certain about a topic that we start working on explaining the nuances of the science.  For example, we are exploring the ideas of dark matter and dark energy in order to explain two unexpected nuances in celestial mechanics.  

When the science is settled, however, then it is time to stop funding further research in order to concentrate on other scientific areas, those that still have uncertainty or where the nuances need explanation.  

Hmm.  Could someone please explain again (I keep forgetting) why we still fund climate science even though the science is settled, the consensus agrees, all debate is over, and there are calls for skeptics to be shunned, banned, re-educated, imprisoned, or executed?  

I&#039;m so glad that there are still scientific areas that still have some uncertainty, unlike climate science.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>wodun wrote: &#8220;<i>We don’t understand the sun, but we totally understand the Earth’s climate. It is rather refreshing to see scientists express uncertainty, to have the ability to express it without fear of being unpersoned.</i>&#8221; </p>
<p>Science thrives on uncertainty.  Science&#8217;s objective is to become more certain about the world and universe around us.  It is when we are fairly certain about a topic that we start working on explaining the nuances of the science.  For example, we are exploring the ideas of dark matter and dark energy in order to explain two unexpected nuances in celestial mechanics.  </p>
<p>When the science is settled, however, then it is time to stop funding further research in order to concentrate on other scientific areas, those that still have uncertainty or where the nuances need explanation.  </p>
<p>Hmm.  Could someone please explain again (I keep forgetting) why we still fund climate science even though the science is settled, the consensus agrees, all debate is over, and there are calls for skeptics to be shunned, banned, re-educated, imprisoned, or executed?  </p>
<p>I&#8217;m so glad that there are still scientific areas that still have some uncertainty, unlike climate science.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Jay		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/solar-scientists-struggle-to-predict-the-next-sunspot-cycle/#comment-1067650</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jay]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 May 2019 23:07:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=58549#comment-1067650</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I look at the solar data daily.  When it comes to radio propagation I use those numbers like a thermometer and barometer: mainly the K index (solar storms) and the SN (Solar Flux).  
One source I use to help predict what is coming is Tamitha&#039;s weekly predictions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&#038;v=hKDyUd1RC5Q   Just like watching the weatherman on television.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I look at the solar data daily.  When it comes to radio propagation I use those numbers like a thermometer and barometer: mainly the K index (solar storms) and the SN (Solar Flux).<br />
One source I use to help predict what is coming is Tamitha&#8217;s weekly predictions: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&#038;v=hKDyUd1RC5Q" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&#038;v=hKDyUd1RC5Q</a>   Just like watching the weatherman on television.</p>
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		<title>
		By: wodun		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/solar-scientists-struggle-to-predict-the-next-sunspot-cycle/#comment-1067646</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[wodun]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 May 2019 22:18:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=58549#comment-1067646</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[We don&#039;t understand the sun, but we totally understand the Earth&#039;s climate. It is rather refreshing to see scientists express uncertainty, to have the ability to express it without fear of being unpersoned.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We don&#8217;t understand the sun, but we totally understand the Earth&#8217;s climate. It is rather refreshing to see scientists express uncertainty, to have the ability to express it without fear of being unpersoned.</p>
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		<title>
		By: David Telford		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/solar-scientists-struggle-to-predict-the-next-sunspot-cycle/#comment-1067645</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Telford]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 May 2019 22:18:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=58549#comment-1067645</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[This article from a couple years ago reinvigorates an old notion.  I found it quite intriguing.
https://phys.org/news/2016-10-link-solar-tidal-effects-venus.html

Suppose every 11 or so years the a chaotic system in the sun is provoked by the current planetary alignment, and the solar cycle is set in motion until the next quiet period, when a new stimulus by the planets weighs in.  Meaning each cycle is a stand-alone phenomenon, and the dice are thrown every 11 years to determine the general character of the next.  Several flat cycles in a row is happenstance.  The consequences, as Bob often suggests, are still just as real.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This article from a couple years ago reinvigorates an old notion.  I found it quite intriguing.<br />
<a href="https://phys.org/news/2016-10-link-solar-tidal-effects-venus.html" rel="nofollow ugc">https://phys.org/news/2016-10-link-solar-tidal-effects-venus.html</a></p>
<p>Suppose every 11 or so years the a chaotic system in the sun is provoked by the current planetary alignment, and the solar cycle is set in motion until the next quiet period, when a new stimulus by the planets weighs in.  Meaning each cycle is a stand-alone phenomenon, and the dice are thrown every 11 years to determine the general character of the next.  Several flat cycles in a row is happenstance.  The consequences, as Bob often suggests, are still just as real.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Phil Berardelli		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/solar-scientists-struggle-to-predict-the-next-sunspot-cycle/#comment-1067641</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Phil Berardelli]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 May 2019 20:34:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=58549#comment-1067641</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I think it&#039;s likely that present-day instruments will be much more capable of detecting the smallest sunspots, whereas during the Maunder Minimum the telescopes were, to put it mildly, crude. This adds to Bob&#039;s main point that solar science contains a great deal of uncertainty. We might indeed be heading into another grand minimum, and if so it should contribute greatly to our knowledge of solar physics. All we can do for the time being is watch, wait and interpolate the data as it arrives.

A bit less certain and more suspenseful than when I wrote about the phenomenon nearly a decade ago: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2010/09/say-goodbye-sunspots]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think it&#8217;s likely that present-day instruments will be much more capable of detecting the smallest sunspots, whereas during the Maunder Minimum the telescopes were, to put it mildly, crude. This adds to Bob&#8217;s main point that solar science contains a great deal of uncertainty. We might indeed be heading into another grand minimum, and if so it should contribute greatly to our knowledge of solar physics. All we can do for the time being is watch, wait and interpolate the data as it arrives.</p>
<p>A bit less certain and more suspenseful than when I wrote about the phenomenon nearly a decade ago: <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2010/09/say-goodbye-sunspots" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2010/09/say-goodbye-sunspots</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Robert Zimmerman		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/solar-scientists-struggle-to-predict-the-next-sunspot-cycle/#comment-1067632</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Robert Zimmerman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 May 2019 17:47:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=58549#comment-1067632</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In reply to &lt;a href=&quot;https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/solar-scientists-struggle-to-predict-the-next-sunspot-cycle/#comment-1067629&quot;&gt;BSJ&lt;/a&gt;.

BSJ: It is no visible sunspots for decades. With today&#039;s instrumentation, we will certainly detect evidence of faint sunspots during the next grand minimum, but they will be very faint and rare.

During the last grand minimum in the 1600s no sunspots were recorded, but recent research has culled out evidence that a few faint spots had occurred, but were undetectable at the time.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In reply to <a href="https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/solar-scientists-struggle-to-predict-the-next-sunspot-cycle/#comment-1067629">BSJ</a>.</p>
<p>BSJ: It is no visible sunspots for decades. With today&#8217;s instrumentation, we will certainly detect evidence of faint sunspots during the next grand minimum, but they will be very faint and rare.</p>
<p>During the last grand minimum in the 1600s no sunspots were recorded, but recent research has culled out evidence that a few faint spots had occurred, but were undetectable at the time.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Jay		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/solar-scientists-struggle-to-predict-the-next-sunspot-cycle/#comment-1067631</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jay]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 May 2019 17:44:55 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[BSJ,
There are few.  There have been other minimums and sunspots do appear, just not a lot.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BSJ,<br />
There are few.  There have been other minimums and sunspots do appear, just not a lot.</p>
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		<title>
		By: BSJ		</title>
		<link>https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/solar-scientists-struggle-to-predict-the-next-sunspot-cycle/#comment-1067629</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BSJ]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 May 2019 16:42:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://behindtheblack.com/?p=58549#comment-1067629</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Is a Grand minimum truly &quot;no sunspots for decades&quot; or just very few over that time frame?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is a Grand minimum truly &#8220;no sunspots for decades&#8221; or just very few over that time frame?</p>
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