I call this invention a think tank, and as impactful as the electric light was, the think tank is used everywhere to great effect.

“Musk, though, has already remade or heavily influenced …”

This is an example of a lack of think tank. Your list are accomplishments performed at different places or companies, not in one think tank. Musk seems to have decomposed that invention back into specializations. There are still teams working on these projects, so I think that we could say that he has also remade the think tank.

“The key to that whole project, the Raptor engine, would have been way too far outside its wheelhouse.”

I’m thinking that everything about Starship is outside of Boeing’s wheelhouse. Starship is a radical revolution in rocketry, from the insanity of keeping the fairings on the upper stage all the way to orbit, to flying rockets that were built outdoors(!) right next to an ocean, to catching it on the fly with chopsticks, which is beyond insanity.

“SpaceX was founded to make humanity multi-planetary.”

That is another insane goal, so I guess we know where SpaceX’s tradition of insanity came from.

Marquardt another casualty of musical chairs.

As an almost 60 year old GenX-er, I grew up in the wrong era. Too early to be part of aerospace in the 1940s-1970’s, too late to be part of what is only now another aerospace revolution just starting—all I remember is stagnation. Popular Science articles would get my hopes up—and then DC-X would tump over. Gary Hudson would talk big—then….nothing.

That whole era poisoned my thinking.

So be it.

Pessimists are never disappointed.

There is no real evidence for the proposition that Elon’s reach is about to exceed his grasp. He’s the greatest inventor/industrialist in US history.

Eli Whitney and a few Brits invented the modern textile industry. Whitney, more impactfully, also invented the concept and early practice of interchangeable machine parts. Edison invented the electric power industry, electric lighting and gets partial credit for having invented consumer electronics. More impactfully, he also invented the concept of organized research and development. John Ericsson invented the screw propeller and the turreted gun for naval ships, both of which were later adapted for aircraft use and the latter of which was also adapted for use on land vehicles. The other great inventors, engineers and tinkerers of American history pretty much had single hits to their names.

Musk, though, has already remade or heavily influenced banking, land vehicles, rockets, broadband Internet, grid power management, tunneling, brain-machine interfaces and is leading the race to practical kinetic AI-based autonomy for vehicles and humanoid robots not to mention the data centers needed to accomplish this. His major accomplishments now number in the high single-digits and he’s a long way from being done.

Boeing wouldn’t have been up to designing and building SH/SS on the best day it ever had. The key to that whole project, the Raptor engine, would have been way too far outside its wheelhouse. In any case, Boeing never saw space as being more than an adjunct to its aircraft business.

North American might have tried had it had more guts in the late ’70s and early ’80s when it was playing round with concepts like Star-Raker and Rocketdyne was still one of its divisions. Ultimately, it wimped out, stumbled and got bought – and dismembered.

Musk and SpaceX are black swans. SpaceX was founded to make humanity multi-planetary. Nothing like SLS would have been remotely suitable for that chore so SpaceX went in another direction as soon as it possibly could.

SpaceX has done a lot of cutting-edge metallurgy. It doesn’t post billboards about that on major freeways, but that doesn’t mean the work hasn’t been done.

To Patrick—I don’t hope Starship fails.

The thing is—there always comes the time when the great man’s reach extends beyond his grasp.

The Boeing of the Incredibles (747) needed to be building SS/SH.

SpaceX needed to build something like SLS—-something you could knock out with a handful of engines and not worry about reuse right away.

Had I been Elon—I would have made space metallurgy priority #1

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-89784-0

RLVs would then be built in orbit, and Starlink complete.

Speaking of space metal:
https://www.spacedaily.com/m/reports/Asteroid_metals_harden_under_extreme_particle_blasts_999.html

I just remembered that SpaceX has launched several of its “competitors.” Amazon Kuiper/LEO, OneWeb, and even the ESA has hired SpaceX to launch GPS and other satellites.

I suppose the only entity that has not hired SpaceX are the Chicoms.

But with Vulcan and New Glenn moving into operational status, and — just to look at the U.S. medium/heavy lift market — Rocket Lab’s Neutron, Stoke’s Nova, Relativity’s Terran R, and Northrop/Firefly’s Eclipse and MLV coming to market shortly behind them, I think this problem, if it is a problem, is already in the process of sorting itself out. SpaceX will remain market-dominant for a while to come, but there’s enough looming competition to provide ways of keeping them honest, and enough major customers keen on giving them business to ensure that result.

Starship will “pan out” like gangbusters. The last two Block 2 missions worked fine and progress on Block 3 will proceed still faster this year. If I were you I’d quit wasting time sticking pins in Starship voodoo dolls and spare some cigars and rum for Jobu so nothing fatal happens on Artemis 2.

Starlink is never going to be “complete.” A fifth of it is going to need replacement every year and the replacement birds will continue to improve over those being replaced. The FCC just authorized 7,500 new birds for Starlink so even completion of a full Starlink build-out-as-authorized continues to recede. Falcon 9 will certainly remain in service at least through the end of ISS and, in the meantime, it makes economic sense to fly it as much as possible with Starlink V2 birds aboard in parallel with the ramp-up of Starlink V3 deployments via Starship.

“If you build it, they will come.”

“Find a need and fill it..”

Re: Blue Origin – We all hope they will become much more. Yes, they have a rocket. It was able to return and land on the barge. Unless Bezos cuts off the $$$, it could continue as his space hobby. To be more, they will have to get serious. They do not have to replicate SpaceX to be more.

Right now, SpaceX reminds me so much of the career of Rush Limbaugh. For most of his career, there was no one (competition) even in his rear view mirror. If Blue Origin does not step up, someone else will. Eventually, there will be all kinds of space and Solar System activity. I would love to move forward in time, to see people working and/or living on the large asteroids.

They have multiple assembly buildings, Multiple launch towers at multiple launch sights.

At that point the only reason to have another launch provider is in case the whole of Space X refuses to launch anything for the government.
I just don’t see that happening, ever.

And that is not even counting on Starship.. Starship just lets them push a larger load to orbit at one time.

Once Starlink is more or less complete—that will free up Falcon’s schedule.

Instead of providing a means to allow productive acceleration, this backlog seems to have encouraged BO and ULA to relax! Maybe we need to start taking this “incentive” away?!

Perhaps that will get the attention of the “Backlogged Obsolescence” and “Underperforming Laxity Assured” organizations?!

ULA is, IMHO, struggling. Blue Origin is developing. Both appear to have enough future manifests that they are not in danger of collapse.

This gives the USSF leeway in awarding these missions.
1. They can choose reliability. SpaceX is the most reliable consistent option today. This is irrefutable.

2. It should make the competition hungry.And the path to satisfying that hunger is to build their own reputation . For reliability.

2. Lane 1 prioritizes not just price, but speed and launch cadence, too. And I think that is the messsage the Space Force was sending on this batch: they want these satellites up speedily, and on a schedule they can rely on. Which, I mean….SpaceX is launching 3 to 4 times a week now, so this is almost like a bus route, so speed and schedule are assured and then some. Clearly, they think only SpaceX can give them that!

3. Blue Origin losing out doesn’t surprise, but ULA is another story. We know the SF has been pretty vocal about their unhappiness over the last two years and more with Vulcan delays. It is hard to NOT see this as registering that they’re still not happy with where Vulcan is. I mean, had they just tossed one or two of these to ULA, the schedule risk would be modest, but they didn’t even do that. They gave them ALL to SpaceX. There are going to be a lot of frowny faces at ULA headquarters this weekend, because that’s money left on the table. These aren’t even Lane 2 launches!

4. How should we read this in connection with Tory Bruno’s departure several days ago? It makes you wonder.

5. And why *is* Vulcan still so slow to get launches off? The next Vulcan launch is USSF-87 on Feb. 2, so that’s nice, but this is only the fourth launch of Vulcan! I just don’t understand why it’s taking so long for ULA to get it in gear. It’s certified now. They have a big backlog. The Space Force has been insisting that they have payloads sitting in clean rooms waiting for a (Vulcan) ride.