SpaceX confirms 14th Starship test flight will be orbital and occur this month
On its first stockholder earnings report yesterday, SpaceX officials confirmed that the 14th Starship/Superheavy test flight will be the first fully orbital flight, and is targeting a launch before the end of August. Moreover, it will deploy three operational version-3 Starlink satellites, the first of that significant upgrade.
The company will also attempt to catch Starship this time in Boca Chica. It is not clear whether the company will also catch Superheavy, but to do so will require Starship to in orbit for at least several hours, at a minimum, to allow time to remove Superheavy from the launch tower and prepare it for Starship.
Musk was also optimistic about the state of Starship’s heat shield, based on the data so far obtained from the 13th flight.
Look, I don’t want to jinx it or anything, but I think we consider the heat shield problem solved at this point. Now we want to take a close look at the ship that is currently floating in the ocean, but all indications from data and visual inspection suggest that we have solved the heat shield problem.
He added that they will of course continue to refine the design, but they appear close to having a tile system that will allow “full and rapid reusability.” He also confidently predicted that by a year from now they will be doing about one flight per day of Starship/Superheavy.
As always, it is wise to treat the timetable of these Musk predictions with a certain measure of skepticism. Based on history, everything Musk predicts is likely to happen, but not quite when he says. Usually it takes a bit longer, but not so much longer.
The earnings call also outlined SpaceX overall cash situation. Its quarterly revenues doubled from $4.1 billion last year during second quarter to $7.8 billion this year. Overall the company had a net loss of about a half billion, due first from the development costs for Starship/Superheavy as well as in its AI division.
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Unless they have fixed the issue with the booster, I don’t see them trying to catch it. They need a soft landing in the ocean before risking the tower.
Appears they are going to catch Starship, which they already have done with an earlier version – just not from orbit.
SpaceX has never caught Starship, only Superheavy.
Thanks. I stand corrected.
Starship 10 did land
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gLNQ6Mq5kbg&pp=ygUYU3RhcnNoaXAgbGFuZGluZyBhdCBib2Nh
He also confidently predicted that by a year from now they will be doing about one flight per day of Starship/Superheavy.
They will soon have several launch pads to launch from, and the word “about” is key. He likely means fewer than daily flights but much more than weekly. With reusability reached and multiple pads, this may not be a difficult goal to achieve. Getting enough payloads to pay for those launches may be a limiting factor, unless they heavily ramp up Starlink V4 manufacturing.
He also needs customers to pay for all those flights. A large number of course will be bought by Starlink to put up its version 3 satellites, but I don’t think that will be sufficient to meet this launch rate.
I fully expect SpaceX to begin launching that many Starships when the launch window to Mars opens, sending them out there as planned. Before this though we shall have to wait and see.
Do they have the designs and manufacturing of the things they want on Mars ready or in planning for the Mars windows? Do they have the reentry vehicles to take these items from orbit to the surface? Are they just landing or self assembling?
I think there are a few sets of test flights to Mars through the windows that are yet to occur before any in mass flights.
So that asks what are all the “at least one flight-per-week” for?
Yup, Robert, you’re right. I said Starlink version 4 when they are only up to version 3. Version 4 is the Starship version coming up in the (near?) future. Sometimes I worry about becoming senile, and today is one of those times.
As for customers to pay for Starship’s many launches, it is possible that the increased Starlink business pays for it. In addition, they should start spending significantly less on Falcon launches, saving a tidy sum on putting Starlink satellites into orbit. A couple of years ago, I did an estimate on the savings that SpaceX would have on Starlink launches once it switched to Starship. If Starship carries three times the mass to orbit and Falcon 9 costs the company $20 million per launch (big “if”) and if Starship costs $3 million per launch (another big “if”), then each Starship launch of Starlinks (yeah, I cannot say that three times fast, either) saves $50 million for Project Starlink. If Starship cost $15 billion to develop (including facilities and equipment), then 300 Starlink launches pay for Starship. All additional launches are cash cow.
On the other hand, I expect companies and other customers to quickly figure out the benefits of launching on Starship, such as large structures for space stations or heavy payloads, such as deep space probes. Can these customers get their products online fast enough to fill those predicted almost-daily Starship launches? Probably not right away, but hopefully they will shortly after.
SpaceX will appreciate the almost-daily launch rate when they are launching to Mars on the 2028 transit window. Depending upon what they want to do on the Moon and how soon they want to start doing it, they may be able to use such a rapid launch cadence.
The timing of the Mars transit windows and the timing of their lunar aspirations determines when and how much design work that they need for facilities and equipment for those missions. I expect that the Tesla Optimus robots (Optimi?) will be key payload members on the early missions, testing their resilience in those environments and preparing for future landings.
Fortunately, the reentry heat shield for Earth is suitable for Mars, so landing there is similar to landing on Earth, or at least similar to the previous test landings of the early Starship units.
I find it interesting that deployment is of three of the version-3 Starlinks. Best guess is that propellant margin for the landing/catching attempt is more important than a full load of operational birds. I’d bet three wooden nickels and half a pack of peanuts that detractors will claim that this is proof that Starship can’t deliver.
That’s precisely what they’re doing. For them, hasn’t done something yet is exactly the same as can’t do something, though they would never apply that standard to their own favorites.