But Ariane 64 and Vulcan VC6L can launch significantly more birds per flight than Falcon 9. So if those two rockets are to fly in Oct. and Nov. it would seem the production rate needs to come up significantly in the coming weeks.

I remain a little skeptical that those two launches will take place on schedule, though.

I think Kuiper’s production pretty clearly exceeds its available launch capacity (which remains mostly SpaceX for the moment) *right now*. But it is true that Amazon will have to increase its production for that to remain true over the coming year.

Agree about Kuiper appearing to be production-limited more than launch-limited. KF-01 launched with 24 sats in July and KF-02 with another two dozen in August about three weeks later. If KF-03 flies in Sept., that suggests Kuiper is turning out roughly one sat per day or maybe a bit more – say 8/week. That would also be consistent with the intervals between launch of the two Atlas Vs with 27 birds apiece and the gap between the second of these and the first Falcon 9 mission.

But Ariane 64 and Vulcan VC6L can launch significantly more birds per flight than Falcon 9. So if those two rockets are to fly in Oct. and Nov. it would seem the production rate needs to come up significantly in the coming weeks.

If that production rate cannot be increased for some reason, then Amazon hasn’t a prayer of getting 1600+ birds on-orbit by July of next year. With just over 100 up already, the best they could likely do would be about 400-ish by 7/2026.

If Amazon is that production-limited, and stays that way, though, at least it won’t have to make excuses to the FCC about why it isn’t using SpaceX to launch more of its birds.

I should have mentioned the Thousand Sails (Qianfan) constellation, as it previously held the no. 6 spot at 90 satellites with Iridium holding no. 7 with 82. I mentioned it last time, so I have no excuse for not mentioning it earlier today. So with today’s launch Kuiper passed both Iridium and Thousand Sails to take current possession of sixth place.

Guowang has 60 operational satellites on orbit (57 in LEO and three in GEO) along with 14 early technology demonstration satellites not part of the operational constellation. Guowang has another 20 satellites scheduled for launch over the next month, but Kuiper has another 24 on deck in the first half of September.

I’m predicting KF-03 to launch on a Falcon 9 in September, the first Ariane 64 to launch with Kuiper satellites in October, KV-01 to launch 45 Kuiper satellites on a Vulcan in November, and KA-03 to launch on an Atlas V in December. So far, at least, Kuiper seems satellite production limited and not launch vehicle limited. We’ll see if it stays that way.

”Geely’s Internet of Things constellation has I think 41 in orbit.”

Holy moly! This one slipped completely under my radar (perhaps because I’m not much interested in the Internet of Things). But when complete with 240 satellites this constellation is supposed to provide communications and centimeter-level positioning (!!!) for self-driving cars. For comparison, the new GPS III constellation is currently world-best at 30-centimeter positioning.

The world just got a lot more interesting, and not in a good way.

mkent: I think one or two of the Chinese constellations probably rank about the same as Kuiper. Geely ‘s Internet of Things constellation has I think 41 in orbit. The Guiwang constellation has I think 71 orbiting satellites. Qianfan has at least 90 in orbit.

My numbers here might be slightly out of date. And though these numbers are lower than Kuiper, the difference is not significant. The lead could quickly change if Qianfan does another launch.

With this launch Kuiper now passes Iridium to become the sixth largest satellite constellation in the world. Only Starlink, OneWeb, SuperDove, Starshield, and Lemur exceed it.