I had agreed with Diane, until I counted the number of SpaceX launches since July 7th. Nine. Including a Falcon Heavy. SpaceX already seems to have the ability to launch at the cadence of 9 per month, but it needs 10 per month for the rest of the year in order to achieve 100 flights to orbit this year.

I’m becoming more impressed with the company as time goes on. All that they need for 100 flights next year is to average 8-1/3 flights a month. Here are Robert’s posts for the time period of the nine launches:

– July 7: https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/spacex-launches-another-48-starlink-satellites/

– July 9: https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/spacex-launches-22-starlink-satellites-using-a-first-stage-for-16th-time/

– July 15: https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/spacex-launches-using-its-second-falcon-9-first-stage-on-its-sixteenth-flight/

– July 19: https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/spacex-launches-15-more-starlink-satellites-into-orbit/

– July 23: https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/spacex-launches-another-22-starlink-satellites/

– July 27: https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/spacexs-falcon-9-launches-another-22-starlink-satellites/

– July 28: https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/spacexs-falcon-heavy-successfully-launches-the-heaviest-geosynchronous-communications-satellite-ever/

– Aug 6: https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/spacex-tonight-successfully-launches-another-22-starlink-satellites/

– Aug 7: https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/spacex-successfully-launches-another-15-starlink-satellites/

Reaching 100 flights this year would mean 10 launches per month for the rest of the year, and that may be tricky. Since they probably cannot do that rate this month, then December would have to make up for the difference, 11 or 12 or more launches. Can they really ramp up that much in the next five months? I’m with Diane and doubt it, too.

For 100 flights next year, they would need to average 8-1/3 flights per month, including successful Starship flights. I look forward to seeing what SpaceX can do next year.

Of course, the prize is not in reaching cadence milestones but in making sure the business operates smoothly. This one company is achieving what the commercial satellite industry had begged for in the 1990s: inexpensive access to space. With SpaceX, access is routinely available and costs less than $2,000 per pound. ($67 million to put up to 38,000 pounds into orbit.)

I’m also hoping that some other launch companies get busy. If New Glenn can make orbit next year, I would be happy to see it enter the competition. Rocket lab is also picking up the pace, and if their soaking wet rockets can fly again, I would be happy — yet at the same time amazed. (Perhaps they may name that mission “Destry Flies Again,” pleasing old movie buffs.)

The other constraint on launch rate is minimizing delays, either from launch aborts or from weather. We’re approaching peak hurricane season so there will be more weather delays between now and mid-November.

Getting to 90 this year means a launch cadence of about 8 launches per month for the rest of the year. That seems achievable only if there are no delays of any type.

Answer looks to be pretty quick!!!

If they can get Vandenberg to the cadence SLC-40 is showing (alas only one ASDS out there) then that 100 launch target looks suddenly more doable..