SpaceX wins $1.6 billion Space Force contract for 18 Falcon 9 launches
Despite widespread speculation in the past few years that SpaceX will likely shut down use of its Falcon 9 rocket once Starship/Superheavy becomes operational, actual market demand continues to suggest otherwise, as illustrated yesterday by the Space Force’s announcement that it has awarded SpaceX a $1.6 billion contract to buy 18 Falcon 9 launches to place a variety of military satellites into orbit.
The task orders, awarded to SpaceX for a total of $1.6 billion, assure 18 Falcon 9 launches in support of the Space Based Sensing and Targeting (SBST) portfolio. All launches will lift off from Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif., and are expected to be completed by the end of 2027.
These shut down rumors were recently fed by SpaceX’s decision to no longer take orders from smallsat companies for future Falcon 9 Transporter missions after 2028, launches that carry dozens of payloads from many small companies. This new Space Force deal might add weight to those rumors in one respect. Assume that SpaceX is limiting construction of new Falcon 9 first stage boosters, anticipating its replacement with Starship/Superheavy. With SpaceX flying so many Falcon 9 missions in 2027, it could be the company might by ’28 be getting close retiring the boosters it has. The company has said 40 launches was the limit for Falcon 9 reuses, and several of those boosters are now getting close to that number, with many more not far behind.
At the same time, the market demand for Falcon 9 remains insanely strong, especially with the many proposed commercial satellite constellations in the works. It seems shutting down the Falcon 9 work horse just because SpaceX now has Starship would be counter-productive. Falcon 9 clearly has its own place in the launch market, outside of Starship. If I was Gwynne Shotwell, I would keep making new Falcon 9s, as the market demanded.
Note too the stark contrast between SpaceX and its chief competitors, ULA and Blue Origin. SpaceX will have no trouble launching these 18 Space Force payloads in the next year. Both ULA and New Glenn have not yet shown the ability to launch more than five times in a year, if that. And both can’t launch at all right now, because their rockets are grounded due to technical issues.
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It doesn’t make sense to me to stop flying F9 until the demand for it no longer outweighs the cost of keeping it operational. That’s still some years down the line, and the lower bound to operate it might be less money than I imagine.
Considering that the price to fly on Falcon 9 is in the 60 — 70 million dollar range and that we think the price for Starship is 100 million dollars, Falcon 9 still has a niche it can fill. This may explain why “the market demand for Falcon 9 remains insanely strong.”
Another factor is that the customer base still does not seem to have a sense for what to do with a Starship ride. Its target capacity is still uncertain, and it has yet to take a defining mass to space, much less take one to orbit. I suspect that the science and business communities are still evaluating what to do with this launch vehicle. Starship is still in development, and the longer, more capable version 4 is still in the future.
SpaceX is being careful with its longer, heavier version 4, because more propellant on the upper stage does not necessarily mean more payload to orbit. A heavier upper stage does necessarily mean that the booster gets off the launch pad slower and does not get as high or as fast at staging. If great care is not taken, then the additional propellant in the upper stage won’t be able to make up for the lost altitude and speed at staging, and the upper stage won’t make it to orbit.
Getting this right is one part of why rocket science is rocket science.
Starship, with its full and rapid reusability, will quickly become the cheaper ride for all customers.
It’s going to be like the difference between the DC-3 and the Fokker trimotor, or the 707 and the DC-7.
Each of those older types were fine for the market when they entered, but the DC-3 and 707 were quantum leaps that the market quickly realized and dropped the older types like hot potatoes. The once-great Boeing company of the 1950s didn’t keep building B-29 derivative Stratoliners after it bet the company on the 707 because it knew the immense future promise of its new offering.
Except Starship is going to be a quantum leap of a higher order than those older examples, as Musk and Shotwell are undoubtedly aware.