Vast remains my favorite of the competitors, because they have the intention of building a rotating space station, providing artificial gravity. Sierra Space is my second favorite, because of the possibility that the Life module could become ubiquitous. Axiom is almost tied for third (they and Sierra Space may be swapping places in my mind, every once in a while), because they have on-orbit experience with science-minded astronauts. I’m still rooting for Voyager Space’s Starlab, though. I also expect that when SpaceX tests their manned Starship for long-duration missions, they will operate that test ship like a temporary space station, in order to give the crew something constructive to do during their long stay in space.

They’ve cut little metal because they’ve been reworking the design so much over the last couple of years. The station renders recently released are, indeed, quite different from the older image you have included here!

I don’t know if they will succeed. I am cautiously optimistic that they might. I’m higher on Vast’s prospects, but I hope that both stations can find a way to succeed.