Sunspot update: Is this sunspot maximum over, or will it become another doubled peaked maximum?
Well, after almost fifteen years it had to happen at last. In preparing to do my monthly sunspot update today, which I had done every month since I started Behind the Black in 2010, I discovered that I had completely forgotten to do the update in December. Sorry about that.
No matter, the changes from month-to-month are not often significant, and fortunately that turned out to be the case in November and December of 2024. Since my last update at the beginning of November 2024, sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun has been relatively stable, based on NOAA’s monthly graph tracking that activity. In November the activity dropped slightly, only to recover a small amount in December.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The question facing solar scientists now is whether the decline in sunspots since the August peak represents the beginning of the ramp down to solar minimum, or whether we are simply in a pause before solar activity rises again, producing the second double-peaked maximum in a row.
The solar scientist community might make some guesses, but guesses will be what they are. The only way we will know if this maximum will be doubled peaked is to wait another two years and watch solar activity.
Meanwhile, it does appear this maximum has once again fooled the solar scientist community, as it did in the previous maximum. That maximum was far weaker than any prediction, as shown on the graph. This maximum is more powerful than predicted by the majority of that community in 2010, though less powerful than predicted by a small contingent of dissenters in 2020.
In other words, none of the predictions were right, for the second cycle in a row.
This failure is not really a criticism of these scientists. It is merely a recognition of how little we understand the nuclear and magnetic processes within the Sun that cause this cycle. And until we gain that deeper understanding, any predictions of the solar cycle, as well as any changes to the Earth’s climate, are mere guesses and not to be taken very seriously.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Well, after almost fifteen years it had to happen at last. In preparing to do my monthly sunspot update today, which I had done every month since I started Behind the Black in 2010, I discovered that I had completely forgotten to do the update in December. Sorry about that.
No matter, the changes from month-to-month are not often significant, and fortunately that turned out to be the case in November and December of 2024. Since my last update at the beginning of November 2024, sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun has been relatively stable, based on NOAA’s monthly graph tracking that activity. In November the activity dropped slightly, only to recover a small amount in December.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The question facing solar scientists now is whether the decline in sunspots since the August peak represents the beginning of the ramp down to solar minimum, or whether we are simply in a pause before solar activity rises again, producing the second double-peaked maximum in a row.
The solar scientist community might make some guesses, but guesses will be what they are. The only way we will know if this maximum will be doubled peaked is to wait another two years and watch solar activity.
Meanwhile, it does appear this maximum has once again fooled the solar scientist community, as it did in the previous maximum. That maximum was far weaker than any prediction, as shown on the graph. This maximum is more powerful than predicted by the majority of that community in 2010, though less powerful than predicted by a small contingent of dissenters in 2020.
In other words, none of the predictions were right, for the second cycle in a row.
This failure is not really a criticism of these scientists. It is merely a recognition of how little we understand the nuclear and magnetic processes within the Sun that cause this cycle. And until we gain that deeper understanding, any predictions of the solar cycle, as well as any changes to the Earth’s climate, are mere guesses and not to be taken very seriously.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun
While that exists at any given moment, it’s not really a “thing”, is it? The sun rotates and we revolve so the Earth-facing hemisphere is a different part of the sun from time-to-time, right?
Oh, great. It’s even worse “Because solar rotation is variable with latitude, depth and time, any such system is necessarily arbitrary”. I forgot that the surface of the sun also isn’t a “thing”. I do find it interesting that the sun’s (arbitrary) rotation period and the moon’s revolution period are about the same.
Basically, these are the ones we count because they’re the ones we can see. Isn’t there something looking at the other side, these days?
Mark Sizer: You are exactly right: The sunspot count is based on the ones we can see. Until the space age that was all scientists had, and for consistency the count is still maintained in that manner. However, there are in-space solar telescopes now that look at the entire solar globe, so that scientists will know what’s happened on the far side.