Sunspot update: Is this sunspot maximum over, or will it become another doubled peaked maximum?
Well, after almost fifteen years it had to happen at last. In preparing to do my monthly sunspot update today, which I had done every month since I started Behind the Black in 2010, I discovered that I had completely forgotten to do the update in December. Sorry about that.
No matter, the changes from month-to-month are not often significant, and fortunately that turned out to be the case in November and December of 2024. Since my last update at the beginning of November 2024, sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun has been relatively stable, based on NOAA’s monthly graph tracking that activity. In November the activity dropped slightly, only to recover a small amount in December.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The question facing solar scientists now is whether the decline in sunspots since the August peak represents the beginning of the ramp down to solar minimum, or whether we are simply in a pause before solar activity rises again, producing the second double-peaked maximum in a row.
The solar scientist community might make some guesses, but guesses will be what they are. The only way we will know if this maximum will be doubled peaked is to wait another two years and watch solar activity.
Meanwhile, it does appear this maximum has once again fooled the solar scientist community, as it did in the previous maximum. That maximum was far weaker than any prediction, as shown on the graph. This maximum is more powerful than predicted by the majority of that community in 2010, though less powerful than predicted by a small contingent of dissenters in 2020.
In other words, none of the predictions were right, for the second cycle in a row.
This failure is not really a criticism of these scientists. It is merely a recognition of how little we understand the nuclear and magnetic processes within the Sun that cause this cycle. And until we gain that deeper understanding, any predictions of the solar cycle, as well as any changes to the Earth’s climate, are mere guesses and not to be taken very seriously.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
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You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Well, after almost fifteen years it had to happen at last. In preparing to do my monthly sunspot update today, which I had done every month since I started Behind the Black in 2010, I discovered that I had completely forgotten to do the update in December. Sorry about that.
No matter, the changes from month-to-month are not often significant, and fortunately that turned out to be the case in November and December of 2024. Since my last update at the beginning of November 2024, sunspot activity on the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun has been relatively stable, based on NOAA’s monthly graph tracking that activity. In November the activity dropped slightly, only to recover a small amount in December.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The question facing solar scientists now is whether the decline in sunspots since the August peak represents the beginning of the ramp down to solar minimum, or whether we are simply in a pause before solar activity rises again, producing the second double-peaked maximum in a row.
The solar scientist community might make some guesses, but guesses will be what they are. The only way we will know if this maximum will be doubled peaked is to wait another two years and watch solar activity.
Meanwhile, it does appear this maximum has once again fooled the solar scientist community, as it did in the previous maximum. That maximum was far weaker than any prediction, as shown on the graph. This maximum is more powerful than predicted by the majority of that community in 2010, though less powerful than predicted by a small contingent of dissenters in 2020.
In other words, none of the predictions were right, for the second cycle in a row.
This failure is not really a criticism of these scientists. It is merely a recognition of how little we understand the nuclear and magnetic processes within the Sun that cause this cycle. And until we gain that deeper understanding, any predictions of the solar cycle, as well as any changes to the Earth’s climate, are mere guesses and not to be taken very seriously.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun
While that exists at any given moment, it’s not really a “thing”, is it? The sun rotates and we revolve so the Earth-facing hemisphere is a different part of the sun from time-to-time, right?
Oh, great. It’s even worse “Because solar rotation is variable with latitude, depth and time, any such system is necessarily arbitrary”. I forgot that the surface of the sun also isn’t a “thing”. I do find it interesting that the sun’s (arbitrary) rotation period and the moon’s revolution period are about the same.
Basically, these are the ones we count because they’re the ones we can see. Isn’t there something looking at the other side, these days?
Mark Sizer: You are exactly right: The sunspot count is based on the ones we can see. Until the space age that was all scientists had, and for consistency the count is still maintained in that manner. However, there are in-space solar telescopes now that look at the entire solar globe, so that scientists will know what’s happened on the far side.