Sunspot update: May activity once again far above prediction
With the start of the month it is time once again for our monthly sunspot update, based on the new data that NOAA today added to its own monthly graph that tracks the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere. I have posted that graph below, but have added some extra details to provide some context.
In May the number of sunspots zipped upward again, ending up at the second highest monthly count during this ramp up to solar maximum, and the second highest count since the last solar maximum in 2014.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The May numbers were well above the 2020 prediction. In fact, they were even well above the prediction’s margin of error, as indicated by the grey curve.
At the same time, these numbers tell us nothing about the upcoming solar maximum. The May numbers were not higher than four months ago, the previous high. Thus, the ramp up to solar maximum could still be at its peak now, early but continuing at this level for the next three years, not unlike what happened during the last solar maximum in 2014, when the peak fluctuated at approximately the same level for years.
Or then again, the increase in May’s sunspot count could be heralding a continuing ramp up to a very high maximum in 2025, much higher than the prediction but more in line with the dissenting prediction by a handful of other solar scientists who in 2020 predicted a very high maximum in 2025. Those same scientists however recently pulled back on their own prediction, saying they now expected the maximum to come one year early, in 2024, and that the maximum will not be as intense as they predicted, though still higher than NOAA’s prediction.
Or as I have written repeatedly over the years, the unreliability of these predictions really only tells us how little solar scientists know about the sunspot cycle and its causes within the Sun’s magnetic dynamo. To quote my update last month:
These predictions are based solely on past behavior, not on any understanding of the true fundamental causes for this sunspot cycle within the Sun’s magnetic dynamo. That the dissenters are now adjusting their prediction to make it align more with what has happening is not an indication of their knowledge, but actually shows us how little they know. They simply change their prediction to fit the facts, as the facts change.
True science is based on recognizing and focusing on your ignorance, rather than claiming knowledge that you do not have. The solar science community might be wise to embrace this concept more fully.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
With the start of the month it is time once again for our monthly sunspot update, based on the new data that NOAA today added to its own monthly graph that tracks the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere. I have posted that graph below, but have added some extra details to provide some context.
In May the number of sunspots zipped upward again, ending up at the second highest monthly count during this ramp up to solar maximum, and the second highest count since the last solar maximum in 2014.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The May numbers were well above the 2020 prediction. In fact, they were even well above the prediction’s margin of error, as indicated by the grey curve.
At the same time, these numbers tell us nothing about the upcoming solar maximum. The May numbers were not higher than four months ago, the previous high. Thus, the ramp up to solar maximum could still be at its peak now, early but continuing at this level for the next three years, not unlike what happened during the last solar maximum in 2014, when the peak fluctuated at approximately the same level for years.
Or then again, the increase in May’s sunspot count could be heralding a continuing ramp up to a very high maximum in 2025, much higher than the prediction but more in line with the dissenting prediction by a handful of other solar scientists who in 2020 predicted a very high maximum in 2025. Those same scientists however recently pulled back on their own prediction, saying they now expected the maximum to come one year early, in 2024, and that the maximum will not be as intense as they predicted, though still higher than NOAA’s prediction.
Or as I have written repeatedly over the years, the unreliability of these predictions really only tells us how little solar scientists know about the sunspot cycle and its causes within the Sun’s magnetic dynamo. To quote my update last month:
These predictions are based solely on past behavior, not on any understanding of the true fundamental causes for this sunspot cycle within the Sun’s magnetic dynamo. That the dissenters are now adjusting their prediction to make it align more with what has happening is not an indication of their knowledge, but actually shows us how little they know. They simply change their prediction to fit the facts, as the facts change.
True science is based on recognizing and focusing on your ignorance, rather than claiming knowledge that you do not have. The solar science community might be wise to embrace this concept more fully.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The extra graph showing historical data is a great touch.
The increase in numbers from 1900-1950 is clear. This corresponds to the recession rate for the Athabasca glacier (seen from the Banff-Jasper highway) which was greatest from 1900-1950 but steadily reduce since. This is not to say that the recession was not significant. Where we used to practice crevasse rescue in 60 foot deep crevasses, is now bare rock. And, we now know why the crevasses were shape as they were.
the CERES data suggest strong support for the idea that sunspot-mediated cloud cover may the largest forcing since 2000 — shortwave budget changes have dominated
a higher sunspot cycle and cooler temps in the mid-2020s would certainly keep the climate grifters busy finding new explanations that don’t mean we’ve wasted tens of trillions on a pseudo-scientific moral panic
I understand Sun Spots have effects in Earth
TallDave
Lower sunspot cycles and cooler temperatures is what the historical data supports.
The last 4 cycles have seen a general trend to lowr sunspot numbers. Those numbers seemed to have maxed out about 1950.