Sunspot update: May activity once again far above prediction
With the start of the month it is time once again for our monthly sunspot update, based on the new data that NOAA today added to its own monthly graph that tracks the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere. I have posted that graph below, but have added some extra details to provide some context.
In May the number of sunspots zipped upward again, ending up at the second highest monthly count during this ramp up to solar maximum, and the second highest count since the last solar maximum in 2014.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The May numbers were well above the 2020 prediction. In fact, they were even well above the prediction’s margin of error, as indicated by the grey curve.
At the same time, these numbers tell us nothing about the upcoming solar maximum. The May numbers were not higher than four months ago, the previous high. Thus, the ramp up to solar maximum could still be at its peak now, early but continuing at this level for the next three years, not unlike what happened during the last solar maximum in 2014, when the peak fluctuated at approximately the same level for years.
Or then again, the increase in May’s sunspot count could be heralding a continuing ramp up to a very high maximum in 2025, much higher than the prediction but more in line with the dissenting prediction by a handful of other solar scientists who in 2020 predicted a very high maximum in 2025. Those same scientists however recently pulled back on their own prediction, saying they now expected the maximum to come one year early, in 2024, and that the maximum will not be as intense as they predicted, though still higher than NOAA’s prediction.
Or as I have written repeatedly over the years, the unreliability of these predictions really only tells us how little solar scientists know about the sunspot cycle and its causes within the Sun’s magnetic dynamo. To quote my update last month:
These predictions are based solely on past behavior, not on any understanding of the true fundamental causes for this sunspot cycle within the Sun’s magnetic dynamo. That the dissenters are now adjusting their prediction to make it align more with what has happening is not an indication of their knowledge, but actually shows us how little they know. They simply change their prediction to fit the facts, as the facts change.
True science is based on recognizing and focusing on your ignorance, rather than claiming knowledge that you do not have. The solar science community might be wise to embrace this concept more fully.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
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You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
With the start of the month it is time once again for our monthly sunspot update, based on the new data that NOAA today added to its own monthly graph that tracks the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere. I have posted that graph below, but have added some extra details to provide some context.
In May the number of sunspots zipped upward again, ending up at the second highest monthly count during this ramp up to solar maximum, and the second highest count since the last solar maximum in 2014.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The May numbers were well above the 2020 prediction. In fact, they were even well above the prediction’s margin of error, as indicated by the grey curve.
At the same time, these numbers tell us nothing about the upcoming solar maximum. The May numbers were not higher than four months ago, the previous high. Thus, the ramp up to solar maximum could still be at its peak now, early but continuing at this level for the next three years, not unlike what happened during the last solar maximum in 2014, when the peak fluctuated at approximately the same level for years.
Or then again, the increase in May’s sunspot count could be heralding a continuing ramp up to a very high maximum in 2025, much higher than the prediction but more in line with the dissenting prediction by a handful of other solar scientists who in 2020 predicted a very high maximum in 2025. Those same scientists however recently pulled back on their own prediction, saying they now expected the maximum to come one year early, in 2024, and that the maximum will not be as intense as they predicted, though still higher than NOAA’s prediction.
Or as I have written repeatedly over the years, the unreliability of these predictions really only tells us how little solar scientists know about the sunspot cycle and its causes within the Sun’s magnetic dynamo. To quote my update last month:
These predictions are based solely on past behavior, not on any understanding of the true fundamental causes for this sunspot cycle within the Sun’s magnetic dynamo. That the dissenters are now adjusting their prediction to make it align more with what has happening is not an indication of their knowledge, but actually shows us how little they know. They simply change their prediction to fit the facts, as the facts change.
True science is based on recognizing and focusing on your ignorance, rather than claiming knowledge that you do not have. The solar science community might be wise to embrace this concept more fully.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
The extra graph showing historical data is a great touch.
The increase in numbers from 1900-1950 is clear. This corresponds to the recession rate for the Athabasca glacier (seen from the Banff-Jasper highway) which was greatest from 1900-1950 but steadily reduce since. This is not to say that the recession was not significant. Where we used to practice crevasse rescue in 60 foot deep crevasses, is now bare rock. And, we now know why the crevasses were shape as they were.
the CERES data suggest strong support for the idea that sunspot-mediated cloud cover may the largest forcing since 2000 — shortwave budget changes have dominated
a higher sunspot cycle and cooler temps in the mid-2020s would certainly keep the climate grifters busy finding new explanations that don’t mean we’ve wasted tens of trillions on a pseudo-scientific moral panic
I understand Sun Spots have effects in Earth
TallDave
Lower sunspot cycles and cooler temperatures is what the historical data supports.
The last 4 cycles have seen a general trend to lowr sunspot numbers. Those numbers seemed to have maxed out about 1950.